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Apply with £100,000 annual income or £100,000 savings or investments with HSBC UK or Premier status abroad. Hello and welcome back to the latest episode of Battleground Ukraine with me Saul David and Patrick Bishop.

This week, all the concerned parties in the conflict seem to be catching their breath and say gear up for the next phase.

Despite the lack of news, and there is an

information blackout on detailed military developments on the Ukrainian side, we seem to be

entering a significant new period which could decide whether the war finishes before the spring

or drags on and on. Yes, well, the Ukrainians have certainly been making optimistic noises predicting

that it's going to be the former. And earlier this week, the deputy Ukrainian defense minister,

Volodymyr, Hevriliof, said Ukrainian forces could be back in Crimea before the new year,

and the Russians comprehensively defeated by the spring. We shall see.

The Ukrainians may not be telling us about the battlefield, but we have our own sources,

notably journalist Colin Freeman, the former chief foreign correspondent for the Sunday Telegraph,

and for my money, one of the finest foreign correspondence of our day. He's just

been on the front lines around Kerson, and he's given us a fascinating account of what he saw

there and what's going on. But first, how do you see things going at the moment, Saul?

Well, Haverillov's remarks are very interesting, aren't they? I mean, in the interview,

he gives some dark hints that the optimism is in part based on the likelihood of what he

calls a black swan event in Moscow, i.e. an out-of-the-blue development, such as a coup of some

sort to topple Vladimir Putin. And it's interesting that other indications are coming also from the Ukrainian side

...