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RickRunGood | Golf Data and Betting Insights

2025 How To Pick The Optimal March Madness Bracket

RickRunGood | Golf Data and Betting Insights

Rick Gehman

Golf, Business, Entrepreneurship, Sports, Fantasy Sports

4.8 β€’ 687 Ratings

πŸ—“οΈ 17 March 2025

⏱️ 56 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Rick is back with the 6th annual Optimal March Madness Bracket! This is the best way to use math and market inefficiencies to construct a winning bracket. πŸ“Š Link to Sheet: https://bit.ly/4hfmZBN πŸ“ Link to Bracket: https://bit.ly/4krUB2h πŸ“ˆ PoolGenius Tools: https://bit.ly/4hDnxBC (Up to 60% off) 🐳 Splash Survivor: https://bit.ly/4iyAkX6 (Code: RICKRG) πŸ† Link to 2024 ESPN Results (51.3%): https://bit.ly/3DWwDLV πŸ† Link to 2023 ESPN Results (81.0%): https://bit.ly/3PlywVd πŸ† Link to 2022 ESPN Re...

Transcript

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0:00.0

What's up guys? Rick Gaiman here with the sixth annual March Madness optimal bracket.

0:04.6

If you are returning again, thank you and welcome back.

0:07.4

If you are new here, hello, I know nothing about college basketball.

0:11.3

I have not watched the second of it all year.

0:13.2

And I cannot even tell you who is in the tournament.

0:16.3

But we're going to use math and game theory to put together what should be a very good bracket or a chance to have

0:23.6

a very high upside bracket using simply math, simply game theory, and using what others are

0:29.6

going to do against themselves. Now, this is the sixth year. So here are the results from the first

0:36.3

five years. You can see all of them are

0:39.6

above average. So the way that this reads is 98% would be the 98th percentile bracket of all

0:46.7

brackets entered on ESPN.com, usually in the tens of millions. Last year with Arizona, we were in the

0:53.4

51st percentile, which is the worst

0:56.0

that we have done, and that is still better than average. The one thing that is always going to

1:01.6

go bad for us is if the most popular teams go to the Final Four, if they go to the national

1:06.6

championship, or God forbid, if they do what Yukon did last year and win the whole thing.

1:12.1

They were the most selected champion last year at about 25%.

1:16.0

Purdue was the third most selected champion at I believe it was 10%.

1:22.8

Yeah, 10.1%.

1:24.5

And they were very, very popular, those two teams to not only go to the final four,

1:28.3

but of course to meet in the national championship game. And of course, Yukon wins the whole thing.

1:32.4

So when this happens, I say it every year, once every four or five years, when the favorite

1:35.8

comes through, we are probably going to get wiped out. And that is exactly what happened last year.

...

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