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The Option Alpha Podcast

227: What 20-Years of Moving Average Data Teaches Us About Stock Reversals & Momentum

The Option Alpha Podcast

Kirk Du Plessis

Investing, Trading, Stock Market, Business, Options Trading, Education, Finance

4.81.2K Ratings

🗓️ 19 April 2023

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Stocks have been described as a rubber band, and we often assume they will snap back and revert when prices become overextended.

So, we wanted to know: How likely is a security to continue or reverse its momentum above and below major moving averages in short, medium, and long-term timeframes? And does the security’s proximity to a moving average impact its performance?

We researched 20 years of data on 286 symbols, using short, mid, and long-term trends to analyze the ticker’s 30-day return relative to its simple moving averages.

I'll be honest, the results surprised me.

Click here to see the full research report.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Sometimes, we might think of market price action as a rubber band.

0:04.6

It stretches in both directions, and whatever potentially overstretched has the tendency

0:09.7

to snap back in the opposite direction.

0:12.8

This concept, though, not a perfect analogy for market price action by any means, has

0:17.2

personally fascinated me for years.

0:19.8

So our team did some research on 286 tickers to see if markets becoming overly stretched

0:26.3

in one direction, versus, and compared to their different short and long-term moving

0:31.5

averages, can help us learn anything about reversals and momentum, and what we found was not

0:37.5

what I expected.

0:38.5

So let's dig in together.

0:56.3

Hey everyone, this is Kirk here again from Option Alpha.com working every single week to make

1:03.4

this the most popular investing podcast offered online because it's based on one thing and

1:08.9

one thing only, and that's helping you consistently place smarter trades.

1:13.0

So thank you so much for tuning back in.

1:15.2

Welcome back to show number 227, where we are going to look at basically 20 years of moving

1:20.8

the average data, and what that teaches us about stock reversals and momentum.

1:26.6

It's definitely not what I expected.

1:28.9

When I actually had the team start doing this research, I thought to myself, I pretty

1:33.4

much know what's going to come out of this.

1:34.8

I did not know exactly what was going to come out of this.

1:37.6

So it's not what I expected, but at the end of the day, it actually makes sense when

1:40.8

you start thinking about it.

...

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