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Chat With Traders

234: Domer – The Information Edge: Winning in Prediction Markets

Chat With Traders

Tessa Dao

Education, Business, Investing

4.92.3K Ratings

🗓️ 24 May 2022

⏱️ 55 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

While many are only hearing about prediction markets for the first time, for near a decade, anonymous trader Domer (@Domahhhh) has been at the frontier of profiting from outcomes of unknown future events. Political and economic matters are Domer’s specialty, although he doesn’t shy away from the rather abstract events either—for example; trading on the outcome of Britney Spear’s conservatorship and the Suez Canal obstruction! Now at a point where he’s netting PnL of several hundred thousand dollars a year (across multiple exchanges), much of Domer’s winnings are due to his ability to garner an information edge and rejection of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

I think that the holidays feel like frozen noses. I love walking with the dog for long periods of time.

0:10.0

Hopefully it's snowing and you've got to wrap up warm. So I think a frozen nose is

0:13.6

then sweaty armpits because like you're wrapped up so warm but then you're climbing hamps

0:17.9

and heath and you get to the top and you're like and then you can see the breath

0:21.6

but then your nose is still freezing to touch.

0:25.0

Joy in every sip with red cups now back at Starbucks.

0:55.0

How you doing traders thank you for tuning in here for episode 234.

1:17.4

We are about to venture into new territory now. For the first time on CWT I'm speaking with a trader of prediction markets.

1:27.4

If you're oblivious to what a prediction market is just as I was only a few weeks ago then I'll try to summarize it like this.

1:35.4

So prediction markets are exchange traded markets, created for the purpose of trading contracts on the outcome of unknown future events.

1:45.4

The prices of these contracts change as the market deems an event more or less likely to happen over time.

1:53.4

If that was a bit confusing don't worry it will all make sense very shortly as the conversation gets underway with today's guest, Domah.

2:01.4

Yes that is an online alias he has understandably requested that I keep his identity anonymous.

2:09.4

While prediction markets are still very nascent, Domah has been participating in these markets for quite some time and has witnessed first hand the recent rise in popularity.

2:21.4

While political events are his specialty as you will hear Domah will also trade many unusual events too.

2:29.4

I'll give you an example the outcome of Britney Spears conservatorship and another one the Suez Canal as well as the

2:38.4

Canal obstruction. All in all he currently nets pernell of several hundred thousand dollars a year from doing this.

2:48.4

Through this episode we cover the mechanics of how prediction markets function and outline of Domah's research process and how he

2:56.4

garners in information edge plus making the actual trade pricing bet sizing and structuring positions.

3:08.4

Before we jump to the interview afterwards Domah sent me an email with a few additional comments.

3:12.4

In our chat he speaks about his stint trading stocks and he felt that it perhaps might have come across as being a little more

3:22.4

rosy than it actually was. If you are interested I've included these comments in the show notes they can be found at chatwithtraders.com slash

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