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Choiceology with Katy Milkman

An Accidental Experiment: With Guests Steven Levitt, Solomon Ezra & Stephen Spector

Choiceology with Katy Milkman

Charles Schwab

Behavioral Economics, Society & Culture, Social Sciences, Decision Making, Charles Schwab, Business, Science, Investing, Dan Heath, Katy Milkman

4.81.4K Ratings

🗓️ 14 August 2023

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

How can events outside of our control create opportunities for accidental insights?

Transcript

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0:00.0

For soon to the executive order, the Director Selective Service is going to establish tonight

0:15.0

a random selection sequence for induction for 1970.

0:22.0

I will ask Congressman Pernie to come forward.

0:27.0

Picture a hall with a bulletin board at the front.

0:30.0

An American flag stands on the left and next to it a woman is opening capsules containing small folded pieces of paper.

0:38.0

She's handing them to a man to read out their dates.

0:42.0

September 14.

0:45.0

Each slip of paper had the power to alter lives forever.

0:49.0

September 14.

0:52.0

Zero.

0:53.0

Zero.

0:54.0

One.

0:55.0

It was December 1, 1969, and Representative Alexander Pernie of New York was revealing to millions of Americans watching and listening at home,

1:06.0

the randomly selected birth dates that determined which tranches of young men would be drafted for military service in the Vietnam War.

1:14.0

December 30.

1:19.0

Whatever you think of this draft lottery, it represented one of the most significant accidental experiments in American history.

1:27.0

A side effect of this process was that it created a population of healthy young men who were fundamentally no different from one another, except that by luck, some had dramatically worse lottery numbers than others.

1:40.0

The men with bad lottery numbers had higher chances of being sent to Vietnam to fight, and that led them to make many different life decisions, essentially by chance.

1:52.0

More than 50 years later, scientists across a multitude of disciplines continue to analyze the data that resulted from this accidental experiment with men's lives.

2:02.0

The Vietnam draft lottery yielded useful insights about the returns to additional schooling, what alters political engagement, and much, much more.

2:13.0

In this episode, you'll hear about how certain geopolitical events, natural disasters, and even simple mistakes can accidentally generate important insights if you think to look.

2:24.0

I'm Dr. Katie Milkman, and this is Choiceology, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. It's a show about the psychology and economics behind our decisions.

...

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