An Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2032. What Can We Do about It?

Science Quickly

Scientific American

Science

4.3 • 1.4K Ratings

🗓️ 12 February 2025

⏱️ 12 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The European Space Agency recently announced that the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2 percent chance of hitting our planet in 2032. The probability of impact is difficult to predict exactly and will be clearer in 2028, when 2024 YR4 will whiz by us. But if the asteroid really is on a collision course with Earth, what can we do about it? Senior space and physics editor Lee Billings joins host Rachel Feltman to unpack this headline-making story. Recommended reading: Newfound Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2032, Scientists Say E-mail us at [email protected] if you have any questions, comments or ideas for stories we should cover! Discover something new every day: subscribe to Scientific American and sign up for Today in Science, our daily newsletter. Science Quickly is produced by Rachel Feltman, Fonda Mwangi, Kelso Harper, Madison Goldberg, Naeem Amarsy and Jeff DelViscio. This episode was hosted by Rachel Feltman with guest Lee Billings. Our show is edited by Jeff DelViscio with fact-checking by Shayna Posses and Aaron Shattuck. The theme music was composed by Dominic Smith. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:34.7	For Scientific American Science quickly, I'm Rachel Feldman.
0:39.0	Have you heard that an asteroid might, just maybe, smack into Earth sometime in the next few years?
0:45.2	The rumors are true, though perhaps not as frightening as you might think.
0:49.2	The fact is that this asteroid called 2024 YR4 is both literally and figuratively a moving target.
0:57.0	As of February 11th, the European Space Agency estimated that the space rock has a 2%
1:03.0	chance of colliding with Earth on December 22nd, 232. That's a slightly higher risk than you'll
1:09.0	hear quoted in the episode that follows, because we recorded it last week.
1:13.5	Why are those numbers changing so quickly?
1:16.1	We promise this isn't a matter of the risk just going higher and higher as time goes on.
1:21.2	It's a lot more complicated than that.
1:23.7	Here to explain what's going on with this potentially hazardous asteroid is Lee Billings,
1:28.4	a senior editor covering space and physics for Scientific American.
1:38.6	Lee, thanks so much for coming on to chat.
1:41.3	It's my pleasure as always, Rachel.
1:43.2	So there's an asteroid with a very
1:45.7	low chance of hitting us. Why did this make such a big splash in the news? So it made such a big
1:50.9	splash in the news because apparently 1% or greater chance of being struck by an asteroid is
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