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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Central bank divergence: Why it's happening and why it matters

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 4 June 2024

⏱️ 21 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The Federal Reserve has historically led a relatively synchronized monetary policy cycle across the major economies, but this cycle seems to be shaping up differently. Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist and Head of Goldman Sachs Research Jan Hatzius, Peter Praet, former chief economist of the European Central Bank, and Maurice Obstfeld, former chief economist of the IMF, discuss the implications of central bank divergence for economies and markets. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report, Central Bank Divergence: Room to Run?

Transcript

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0:00.0

In a rare move, the European Central Bank is widely expected to begin cutting its policy rate this week,

0:06.5

at the same time that the Fed is expected to remain on hold at its upcoming meeting.

0:11.5

So how far could Central Bank divergence run?

0:14.0

The US is a huge impact on the global financial cycle,

0:18.0

but the US is not independent also of what the others are doing.

0:22.0

So there are spillovers in financial conditions to the other countries,

0:26.4

but they also spill backs.

0:28.0

I'm Allison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges.

0:45.2

Every month I speak with investors, policymakers and academics about the most pressing market moving issues for our top of my report from Goldman Sachs research.

0:48.4

In the most recent report, I looked at Central Bank Divergence.

0:52.0

The Fed typically leads a relatively synchronized monetary policy cycle

0:56.2

across the major economies.

0:58.2

But the cycle seems to be shaping up somewhat differently this time.

1:01.3

So why is that and what are the implications for economies

1:04.1

and markets? I spoke to three of the world's top economic minds.

1:08.0

Jan Hatzius, our chief global economist here at Goldman Sachs, Peter Pratt, the

1:12.2

former chief economist of the European Central Bank,

1:15.3

and Maurice Oppsfeld, the former chief economist of the IMF.

1:19.2

Jan started us off with a useful snapshot of how economies around the world are faring and how

1:24.3

Central Banks are responding. How unusual is it for the Fed to not lead the cycle and

1:30.8

what's really informing our view in terms of the starting points.

1:36.4

The idea of having flexible exchange rates and

...

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