DeepSeek R1 & The Short Case For Nvidia Stock | Jeffrey Emanuel
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4.8 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 28 January 2025
⏱️ 89 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
China’s new DeepSeek AI model, which reportedly matches GPT-4’s performance at 1/45th the cost, has rattled the AI hardware market and contributed to a 20% dip in Nvidia’s stock price. Investor-technologist Jeffery Emanuel argues that DeepSeek’s efficiency gains aren’t the only story, as his viral 12,000-word article “The Short Case for Nvidia Stock” also catalyzed the market’s panic. In this episode, we explore how these converging factors could unbundle Nvidia’s once-unassailable lead and drastically reshape AI compute economics.
- Jeff's Article: https://youtubetranscriptoptimizer.com/blog/05_the_short_case_for_nvda
- Jeff on X: https://x.com/doodlestein
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TIMESTAMPS
00:00 Start
05:20 Intro To Jeff
07:27 The Issue With DeepSeek
16:00 Inference Compute Explained
24:51 Nvidia's Competition
29:14 DeepSeek's Impact On Valuations
36:46 Criticism Around Jeff's Thesis
44:17 DeepSeek's 45x Upgrade
51:30 The Transformer Explained
01:03:15 Why Is Everyone Shocked?
01:12:07 Synthetic Data
01:21:30 Why Jeff's Article Went Viral
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Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | I basically was trying to help my organic search ranking of my little YouTube tool. |
| 0:06.3 | And then it's like in the process, I may have inadvertently contributed to $2 trillion |
| 0:10.0 | getting wiped off global equity markets. |
| 0:13.0 | Because, you know, the fact is, all of the news headlines came out saying, |
| 0:17.7 | the stock market crash because deep seek. |
| 0:20.1 | I'd like to point out that the DeepSeek V3 technical paper, |
| 0:23.9 | it came out December 27th. |
| 0:27.1 | A month ago. |
| 0:27.7 | That's a month ago. |
| 0:28.6 | Even the newer model, the R1 model that does the chain of thought, |
| 0:32.3 | that paper came out a week ago, |
| 0:34.2 | and people were all over that. |
| 0:35.8 | So why suddenly on Monday did everything crash? |
| 0:39.6 | And I'd like to think it's because I'm pretty sure it is that I wrote this article |
| 0:44.0 | in a way that sort of speaks to headstrong managers, so they can understand it. |
| 0:50.3 | And I published it like in the middle, you know, of the night on Friday, and then it started |
| 0:56.9 | taking off, and then it got shared by Chammoth, who has, you know, whatever, 1.8 million, right? |
| 1:03.6 | And Chimoth, and it's been viewed over two million times. |
| 1:07.5 | Navarov account has two and a half million. And then, like, the Y Combinator, Gary Tan, and the Y Combinator account. |
| 1:14.8 | Between them, they have millions of followers. |
| 1:16.7 | And not only did they share it, but they were like very effusive in their praise about |
| 1:21.0 | this is really smart. |
... |
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