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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

E114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

All-In Podcast, LLC

Alllin, Coronavirus, Calacanis, Palihapitiya, Health, Sacks, Friedberg, Allin, Entrepreneurship, Covid19, Gambling, Grow, Investing, Iq, Tips, Tech, Business, Jason, Startups, Poker, Technology, Money, Learn, Davidsacks, Davidfriedberg, Chamath

4.27.1K Ratings

🗓️ 4 February 2023

⏱️ 73 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

(0:00) Bestie intro!

(1:15) Macro picture update: 0.25% raise, jobs rip up, wage growth continues to slow

(17:52) Interest rates impact on mega-cap company creation

(33:58) Mass extinction event coming to startups, reckoning for VCs, venture debt issues

(1:02:33) Adani's potential fraud, role of short sellers

Follow the besties:

https://twitter.com/chamath

https://linktr.ee/calacanis

https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

https://twitter.com/friedberg

Follow the pod:

https://twitter.com/theallinpod

https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast

Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/02/03/january-jobs-labor-market

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-approves-quarter-point-rate-hike-signals-more-increaseslikely-11675278190

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com

https://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-Investor-Definitive-Investing-Essentials/dp/0060555661

https://chamathreads.substack.com/p/higher-rates-will-lead-to-the-next

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/META:NASDAQ

https://medium.com/@alt.cap/time-to-get-fit-an-open-letter-from-altimeter-to-mark-zuckerberg-and-the-meta-board-of-392d94e80a18

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fedex-to-cut-global-officer-director-workforce-by-at-least-10

https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23574322/zuckerberg-puts-metas-middle-managers-on-notice

https://twitter.com/tomloverro/status/1620466827519496194

https://twitter.com/msuster/status/1620653106387386368

https://twitter.com/gradypb/status/1620937502248034304

https://www.axios.com/2023/02/01/david-cahn-leaves-coatue-for-sequoia-capital

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ADANIENT:NSE?window=1Y

https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-30/most-adani-stocks-drop-as-rebuttal-draws-hindenburg-response

https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/34-94313.pdf

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/03/wall-street-muddy-waters-activist-short-sellers-tesla-gamestop/672774

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

All right, everybody. Welcome to the All in Podcast. We're back. Thanks to Freeberg and Saks

0:05.6

for moderating the show into the lowest ratings in its history. Hold on, hold on. Please

0:14.7

give the keyboard warriors that are their bot armies some respite here. They tried their best.

0:19.6

It just did. It's okay. I think the ratings the last episode must be a result of Google

0:24.9

down-ranking us as a result of our honesty about not wanting to get more boosters.

0:30.8

Saks, you're on the Brigadountra. You call us somebody at Google, some lower level

0:34.4

functionary to push a button to shadowbait. I mean, visibility filter us.

0:39.4

It's everything except the moderation skills of the two days. No way it's the moderator

0:43.1

turning it into Fox Sunday. The reaction I got from our COVID vaccine discussion was,

1:05.4

hey, pretty fair imbalance, like not in a joking way, but actually like the warning on YouTube

1:10.6

was pretty benign actually. If you want COVID information click here, thank you.

1:14.8

Let's talk about the market data. The Fed raised 25 basis points. The market obviously has ripped

1:19.9

since then the jobs data this morning was crazy. We added 517,000 jobs more than 2X December

1:30.4

and well above the estimates of 188,000 jobs. The Fed, I think, is starting to realize

1:36.5

they can have obviously impact inflation and slow down speculative assets, but they're having

1:42.9

a very hard time with the labor market. Obviously labor participation actually is growing.

1:48.4

We've talked about that many times here. It's bumped up to 62.4%. We all know it peaked at like

1:53.6

maybe 69% during the 2000 time period. Weijero though continuing to slow. So that is some good news there.

2:02.4

Obviously, risk on assets are ripping the last couple of days. Tremont, which your take on where we

2:08.7

are with the market and the Fed's action, which people are starting to believe will be another 25

2:14.4

basis point hike and then maybe staying high for the rest of the year. Did you hear their comments?

2:20.6

You think Dovish, which your take on the market? I watched Powell's speech and it was really amazing

...

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