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Black Swan Theory.

Black Swan Theory, or the theory of Black Swan events, is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

The term is based on an ancient saying, which presumed black swans did not

exist, but the saying was rewritten after black swans were discovered in the while.

The theory was developed by Nassim Talib to explain, number one, the disproportionate role of high

profile, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations

in history, science, finance, and technology. Number two, the non-computability of the

probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods owing to the very

nature of small possibilities. Number three, the psychological biases which blind people,

both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical

affairs. Unlike the earlier and broader Black Swan problem in philosophy, the problem of induction,

Talib's Black Swan theory refers only to the unexpected

events of large magnitude and consequence in their dominant role in history. Such events

considered extreme outliers collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. More

technically, in the scientific monograph, silent risk,

Talop mathematically defines the Black Swan problem

as stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability.

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