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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Falling rates: A salve for real estate?

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 24 September 2024

⏱️ 27 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The Fed has begun a long-awaited cutting cycle, potentially providing some relief to rate-sensitive sectors. Goldman Sachs’ Lotfi Karoui and Jeff Fine explain the impact of falling rates on US commercial real estate as well as the implications for housing.

Transcript

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0:00.0

How will falling interest rates impact real estate markets?

0:04.0

I think there's not an all clear sign because the market from a technical perspective

0:09.5

still has a lot of things going on that we're watching very closely, but with rates coming down that's a huge help.

0:15.2

The Fed has begun a long awaited cutting cycle, potentially providing some relief to rate sensitive sectors.

0:21.2

But will commercial real estate be one of them or will the structural

0:25.1

forces that have battered the sector, especially the office sector, continue to dominate?

0:30.8

And what does this all mean for housing? I'm Allison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges.

0:37.0

Today I'm joined by my Goldman Sachs research colleague Lautfiqueau, who heads up

0:48.3

credit mortgages and structured products research and by Jeff Fine, global Cohead of Alternatives Capital Formation in the firm's

0:55.4

Asset and Wealth Management Business. Lautby Jeff, welcome back to the program.

0:58.7

Thanks for having us.

0:59.7

Thanks, Allison.

1:00.7

So Lautby, let me start with you because when we last sat down on this topic in the spring of

1:07.8

2023, we were really in a very different macroeconomic environment.

1:12.6

Inter-

1:22.0

Inter-Spiking, inflation was a rising concern, and we were on the heels, if you remember, it was just right after the regional banking crisis.

1:22.1

That really revolved around the commercial real estate sector.

1:25.2

But a lot has changed since then.

1:27.7

Inflation fears have obviously subsided if anything, growth fears are overtaking

1:31.7

inflation fears and rates are on the decline.

1:34.7

We obviously had the 50 basis point cut from the Fed this week and of course interest rates

1:40.5

themselves have come down pretty dramatically. So is this a better macro backdrop for the

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