BBC Sounds

You're listening to BBC Scotland

Hello, you're listening to Podlitical, BBC Scotland's podcast

that brings you an inside look at the big stories coming out of Hodgerud and Westminster.

It is just after 1 o'clock on

Wednesday the 19th of June. I'm Phil Sim, a journalist based at the Scottish Parliament, and

today I'm joined by... Hello, I'm Mark Diffley. I'm a researcher and pollster based here in Edinburgh.

And I'm Rachel Ormston. I'm a research director and occasional pollster at Ipsos in Scotland.

Welcome to both of you. As ever, perhaps, a hint of what today's episode is about based on the guest list.

I mean, obviously in an election campaign, we all know, we've all heard it, there's only one poll that matters.

And that is the Professor Sir John Curtis exit poll. But before we get to that,

there are lots and lots of other polls to suggest how the campaigns are going. And we are seeing

more and more this year, if you look at these newfangled MRP polls. So I thought today

would be a good time to have a deep dive into how all of this works. I mean, just to kick off

with you guys, I mean, I guess,

you know, pollsters, sophologists, researchers, you guys are kind of forecasters in a way. Mark,

is this election unfolding the way that you expected? Yeah, I think so broadly. I mean, there's a

UK perspective and then there's a Scotland perspective and we can sort of just go into both. I mean I don't want to

start by being nitpicky but we're not really

forecast us. I mean

I suppose the first

sort of staging post the first marker to put down

...