Kenneth Rogoff: Tariff Impacts, The Dollar's Future and Global Economic Shifts

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

Norges Bank Investment Management

In Good Company, Business, Norges Bank, Nicolai Tangen

4.8 • 186 Ratings

🗓️ 23 April 2025

⏱️ 70 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

What challenges lie ahead for the global economy in an era of rising tariffs and geopolitical tension? In this episode, Nicolai Tangen speaks with Kenneth Rogoff, renowned economist and co-author of the seminal book "This Time Is Different," about the shifting economic landscape. They discuss the potential impacts of Trump's tariff policies, the future of US dollar dominance, and why inflation might make an unexpected comeback. Kenneth shares his chess-player's perspective on navigating trade negotiations and offers contrarian views on China's growth trajectory and technological disruption. Tune in for a thought-provoking discussion on our financial future!

In Good Company is hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. New full episodes every Wednesday, and don't miss our Highlight episodes every Friday.

The production team for this episode includes Isabelle Karlsson and PLAN-B's Niklas Figenschau Johansen, Sebastian Langvik-Hansen and Pål Huuse. Background research was conducted by Torgeir Rimstad.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Hi everyone. I'm Nicola Tangen, the head of the Norwegian Soan Wealth Fund. And today I'm in really good
0:05.9	company with Ken Rogoff. Now, Ken is known for his insights into global finance, economic history,
0:12.7	and for his incredible book, which he wrote together with Carmen Reinhardt, which is like a
0:18.1	seminal book, actually, and it's called This Time It's Different.
0:21.4	He's out with a new book coming up soon and you can look forward to it. Ken, wonderful to have you here.
0:27.0	Wonderful to be here. Thank you for having me on your podcast.
0:44.9	So, Ken, I think I've said once that discussing, you know, inflation with you, that's a bit like discussing the Bible with Jesus.
0:48.5	But, I mean, let's give it a go, huh?
0:51.3	I don't know how we can live up to that.
0:54.5	Ken, how would you assess the current state of the global economy just now?
0:59.6	Well, it was in modestly good shape, but obviously it's being thrown into chaos with the restructuring of globalization that Donald Trump comes with, what's happening
1:14.6	in Europe, you know, it's a pretty wild time. I don't think it'd be a little bit much to say
1:21.7	it's unlike anything we've seen before. I think it feels a little like the 70s to me. Trump actually feels a little
1:30.3	like Nixon to me, but obviously we're in for a wild ride. Where are we in terms of American
1:38.1	exceptionalism now? Well, it's been dented. I mean, I almost, we sometimes call the U.S. the hegemon, the one that dominates
1:46.5	everything. And it's almost like the hegemon is turning on itself. And Trump says, and I hope he has a
1:54.5	plan, that it's all going to be better on the other side of this. But obviously the stock markets are getting nervous. Everybody's
2:03.7	getting nervous that there might not be a plan. I don't know. I mean, I say, he's the president of the United
2:10.3	States. I wish his policies well. But it's hard to understand exactly where he's going and what he's doing.
2:19.8	Again, it feels like a throwback to the 70s in a lot of ways.
2:24.2	What are your biggest concern when it comes to the current economic policy?
2:28.7	Well, I mean, the biggest concern is that we undermine the institutions that are the bedrock of U.S.
	...

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