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Wall Street Breakfast

Last CPI before tariffs impact

Wall Street Breakfast

Seeking Alpha

Business, Investing, Business News, News

3.8950 Ratings

🗓️ 9 March 2025

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

A dovish consumer price index could cement a June Fed cut. (0:17) Adobe set to report earnings. (2:12) DOJ still wants to break up Google. (3:41)

Show Notes
Piper Sandler's actionable picks amid selloff
Earnings Calendar
Dividend Roundup

Episode transcripts: seekingalpha.com/wsb
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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street brunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's

0:09.9

market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis.

0:14.1

Hello, today is Sunday, March 9th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn.

0:17.7

Investors turn their attention to inflation once again this week, but now with a backdrop of

0:21.7

uncertainty over government policy and real concern about growth. In their weekly equities rundown,

0:26.8

Goldman Sachs lists a host of things traders are fretting about, including said growth worries,

0:31.3

tariff fatigue, weak technicals, challenging liquidity, consumer woes, and poor seasonality.

0:36.7

If Wednesday's consumer price index again

0:38.5

indicates sticky inflation, it could trigger a further leg down for stocks. Economists expect that

0:43.7

the headline CPI and the core CPI rose by 0.3% in February. That would bring the annual rate

0:49.4

down to 2.9%, with the core rate edging down to 3.2%. Wells Fargo economists say,

0:55.0

while February CPI report is likely to deliver an initial taste of tariffs,

0:59.0

it is likely to be just the start.

1:01.0

The implementation of a further 10% tariffs on Chinese goods

1:04.0

and the follow-through on 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico,

1:08.0

even with some carve-outs, is poised to stoke inflation in the

1:11.5

near term. Although we expect both headline and core inflation to tick down on a year-over-year

1:16.3

basis in February, we anticipate it will start moving back up this spring and remain stuck

1:20.9

near 3% for the duration of this year despite further easing in shelter inflation and growing

1:25.9

signs of consumer fatigue. If the CPI delivers a dovish surprise, that could cement market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June.

1:33.3

The odds of the Fed cutting by a quarter point that month jumped to 80% after the weaker and expected rise in February payrolls,

1:39.3

and Fed Fund's futures are pricing in a one-and-four chance now that rates could be down by 50 basis points from the

...

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