3.8 • 950 Ratings
🗓️ 9 March 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
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0:00.0 | Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street brunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's |
0:09.9 | market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis. |
0:14.1 | Hello, today is Sunday, March 9th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. |
0:17.7 | Investors turn their attention to inflation once again this week, but now with a backdrop of |
0:21.7 | uncertainty over government policy and real concern about growth. In their weekly equities rundown, |
0:26.8 | Goldman Sachs lists a host of things traders are fretting about, including said growth worries, |
0:31.3 | tariff fatigue, weak technicals, challenging liquidity, consumer woes, and poor seasonality. |
0:36.7 | If Wednesday's consumer price index again |
0:38.5 | indicates sticky inflation, it could trigger a further leg down for stocks. Economists expect that |
0:43.7 | the headline CPI and the core CPI rose by 0.3% in February. That would bring the annual rate |
0:49.4 | down to 2.9%, with the core rate edging down to 3.2%. Wells Fargo economists say, |
0:55.0 | while February CPI report is likely to deliver an initial taste of tariffs, |
0:59.0 | it is likely to be just the start. |
1:01.0 | The implementation of a further 10% tariffs on Chinese goods |
1:04.0 | and the follow-through on 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, |
1:08.0 | even with some carve-outs, is poised to stoke inflation in the |
1:11.5 | near term. Although we expect both headline and core inflation to tick down on a year-over-year |
1:16.3 | basis in February, we anticipate it will start moving back up this spring and remain stuck |
1:20.9 | near 3% for the duration of this year despite further easing in shelter inflation and growing |
1:25.9 | signs of consumer fatigue. If the CPI delivers a dovish surprise, that could cement market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June. |
1:33.3 | The odds of the Fed cutting by a quarter point that month jumped to 80% after the weaker and expected rise in February payrolls, |
1:39.3 | and Fed Fund's futures are pricing in a one-and-four chance now that rates could be down by 50 basis points from the |
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