Nate Silver (statistician)

Armchair Expert with Dax Shepard

Armchair Umbrella

Tv & Film, Music, Comedy

4.6 • 68.2K Ratings

🗓️ 12 February 2025

⏱️ 102 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commissioner, how code-switching as a gay man of his cohort can translate to success, and defying the odds by quitting his first job to play online poker. Nate and Dax talk about learning statistical models as a hobbyist because academics don’t have the street smarts, the phenomenon of sore winners in tech, and the adage that the more shabbily you show up for your first meeting the more trustworthy you are. Nate explains that the dopamine felt especially by men during a winning streak is effectively a narcotic, how figures like Sam Bankman-Fried are kind of degenerate gamblers at heart, and why the new alpha move in industry is just to trust your gut.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Wondry Plus subscribers can listen to Armchair Expert early and ad free right now.
0:06.5	Join Wondry Plus in the Wondry app or on Apple Podcasts.
0:10.0	Or you can listen for free wherever you get your podcasts.
0:13.7	Welcome, welcome, welcome to armchair expert.
0:15.6	Experts on Expert.
0:16.7	I'm Dan Shepard and I'm joined by Monica Padman.
0:19.2	Hi.
0:19.8	Hi.
0:20.2	We have our first, I think, statetician on today.
0:23.6	Do you think?
0:24.2	Is it our first?
0:25.0	That's a big swing.
0:26.0	Nate Silver is the point.
0:27.4	He's a statistician and a bestselling author.
0:30.3	Everyone would know Nate Silver around election time.
0:33.5	All of his computations end up as headlines all the time.
0:39.4	He had an incredible track record for a while.
0:42.3	There were a couple deviations that we'll learn of.
0:45.3	But his books include the signal and the noise.
0:49.3	And he has a new book out that I happen to just read on my own.
0:52.9	Couldn't stop talking about.
0:54.0	We invited him in.
	...

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