bond yields around the world have been exceptionally volatile in recent weeks. So what's behind the

sharp moves in global bonds and what could they mean for the economy and for investors? I'm Alison

Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges. Today I'm joined by Johnny Fine, Global Head of Investment

Grade in Goldman Sachs Global Banking and Markets, and by George Cole, head of European rates strategy

for Goldman Sachs research.

Johnny is here in our New York studio and George is joining us from our London office.

George, Johnny, good to talk to you.

Nice to be back.

Thanks, howells.

So, George, let's start with you.

Global bonds have been markedly, and I would say unexpectedly, no investor that I know of

was expecting

this level of volatility heading into the new year. So help us understand what's driven the recent

moves. Yeah, thanks, Alison. So if we go back over a kind of multi-month period since, say,

around about the September period of being very substantial moves in global bond markets,

US yields moving

about 100 basis points higher at the 10-year point on the curve, a similar move in the UK,

maybe about half that in European yields. And all of that is really, I think, due to a revision

of expectations on growth, on inflation and on the monetary policy path that is

expected particularly from the Fed. Now, part of that is because the US data set has been better.

You've seen improvement in things like the labour market, where there was some source of

concern if we go back to the September period.

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