This is a headgum podcast.

Welcome to Buckets.

I want you to imagine this.

A three-point shooter gets fouled on his attempt and misses. The player heads to the line for three.

Any amateur statistician will tell you that there's eight permutations of what will happen next.

He will make all three, or he will miss all three or three different versions of

missing two or three different versions of missing one. Basically one half times

one half times one half, one eighth.

But which of these eight is most likely?

And which is least likely?

I ask some friends who are smarter than me

if there's any exact data that tracks this kinds of stuff.

And while we got close close I never got a concrete

answer though I have enough clues that should yield an accurate estimate which

in this world is close enough to fact. Here's what I now know. Second free throws are more accurate

than first free throws, and third free throws are more accurate still. This should come

as no surprise to anybody who's shot around once you get into rhythm for a specific shot in a specific spot they get easier

That being said the average free throw shooter this year shoots 77% from the Charity Stripe. Three point shooters

probably shoot a little bit higher so let's guess that's 80%. At that clip

they're more likely to hit all three free throws than miss any.

0.8 times 0.8.

This number is higher if you consider that the second and third one

...