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The Simple Handicap - Daily NFL Podcast

NFL Free Agency Breakdown: Winners, Losers & Surprises - Q&A

The Simple Handicap - Daily NFL Podcast

Adam Chernoff

Footballpicks, Betting, Bettingpicks, Picks, Sportsgaming, Gambling, Sports, Sportsbetting, Freepicks, Gamblingpicks, Nfl, Football

4.81.3K Ratings

🗓️ 12 March 2025

⏱️ 65 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

NFL Free Agency is in full swing! Which teams made the best moves? Which ones flopped? And most importantly—how do these signings impact betting markets? Join me, Adam Chernoff, for a live Q&A where I'll break down the biggest signings, grade team performances, and answer your questions about futures, win totals, and more.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Hey, everybody. Welcome back to the show. It's been a couple of days since we got to the NFL headlines. And in this episode, I'll be going through a lot of the biggest free agency news. I have a number of questions preloaded that I'm going to be answering as we go along. And of course, with this being a live stream Q&A, you can jump into live chat, leave your questions. We'll be good to get to a variety of different topics, a lot going on, a lot of noise across the league.

0:24.2

I don't have any monumental takes in terms of forward-looking projections and how things are going to go,

0:30.9

but I have already run through a wave of wind totals.

0:34.4

I have updated some of those win totals.

0:36.6

I've seen adjustments.

0:38.5

I sent it out in the Footballbetters.com newsletter last week with the initial rundown. And some of those numbers

0:43.1

have definitely changed. I think some of those are going to continue to change as we see other

0:47.4

quarterbacks find spots. The draft obviously comes through and teams build up the rosters a little

0:52.0

bit more. But in terms of the last,

1:00.5

I'll call it five to six days, I would say I've seen more moves and more excitement than I thought we were initially going to get from what looked like a bit of a dud free agency class.

1:04.6

I wouldn't say anybody has drastically shifted their chances of contending per se. I think some teams have really improved

1:12.6

in key spots. Some have done so in a very wise manner, some not so much. I'll get to those

1:17.3

teams as well and talk about them. My first kind of just comment and takeaway here is last year I

1:23.1

really got into the draft for the first time. And this year, I have started things earlier than I ever have.

1:29.1

And my big takeaway from the draft last year and just going through the handicapping process

1:33.2

and doing a lot of things with it that I did not do in years was just how many of the beat writers

1:39.7

and the reporters and the reliance on them and how messy things became as reactions became more prevalent.

1:48.1

There were more discussions about it.

1:49.7

We're pretty out of control.

1:51.1

And I was amazed by how many swings in the market came from that.

1:55.2

My free agency takeaway is not that.

1:57.5

My free agency takeaway in being this dialed in with things going on was the initial

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