4.4 • 1.9K Ratings
🗓️ 20 May 2022
⏱️ 78 minutes
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First Broadcast: June 9, 2020
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0:00.0 | Yesterday was the first pandemic or epidemic that really was out of control. |
0:08.5 | People were very upset with me. |
0:10.1 | Oftentimes my scientific colleagues, and because I see what happened in China, in Wuhan, |
0:15.2 | in the rest of China, I realized that this was a virus that in some way was sublimating. |
0:21.4 | The other thing is that by looking at various examples of places that were hit very early |
0:26.8 | on, but hit very hard, we've got some estimate of what I call the population fatality rate. |
0:32.7 | I.e. forget about cases, forget about infections. |
0:36.2 | Just ask if you have a million people, how many of them are likely to die? |
0:40.7 | And the number that we saw were sort of more than through, but maybe not more than 50% |
0:46.1 | more than through. |
0:47.1 | By living normally, your risk for one month ahead is double. |
0:50.8 | It's like saying, gee, I'm so scared of the risk for the next month, I'm not going to |
0:53.9 | live. |
0:54.9 | We don't go out of our way to control the normal background death rate. |
0:57.8 | If somebody said, stop eating, drinking, and everything, you know, lay in your bed, you'd |
1:02.0 | live an extra six months. |
1:03.4 | You wouldn't want that. |
1:04.4 | Because dying is part of life, I accept the risk. |
1:08.6 | And you know, I think it's an important way to think about this. |
1:23.9 | I.e. |
1:24.9 | I.e. |
1:25.9 | I. |
... |
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