Hi, I'm Dan Pramack, and welcome to Axios Recap, presented by Bridge Bank.

Today's Monday, September 21st.

Stocks are down, fears of a second virus wave are up, and we're focused on how Ruth Bader

Ginsburg's death could upend American health care.

As you've no doubt heard by now, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away

Friday at the age of 87, after a battle with pancreatic cancer.

We'll talk more about her legacy later in the show, but wanted to lead today with one of the

cases she was preparing to hear, because it could result

in the loss of health insurance for roughly 20 million Americans in the midst of a pandemic.

The case is officially known as California v. Texas, but it's not quite so simple.

In reality, it's a group of states that want to maintain what's left of the Affordable Care Act,

otherwise known as Obamacare, against another group of states that want to scrap the ACA entirely,

with the Trump administration helping the latter group.

We never know for sure how a Supreme Court justice will rule on a case, particularly before there

have been any oral arguments, but Ginsburg was a pretty staunch supporter of ACA, and her

presence almost certainly would have guaranteed its survival. Now, though, it's a bit more dicey.

Were the case to be heard by an eight-person court, Chief Justice Roberts could again side

with the liberals,

creating a four-four split. In that case, ACA survives because a lower court ruling would be upheld.

But if Trump and Republican senators successfully add a ninth justice before oral arguments,

well, then all bets are off. So is what happens to those who currently

get health insurance through ACA marketplaces and all of the private insurance companies

...