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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Trump Tariffs Trigger Market Meltdown, JPMorgan Raises Recession Odds: PALvatar Market Recap, April 04 2025

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business, Business News, News, Investing

4.21K Ratings

🗓️ 4 April 2025

⏱️ 3 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. ⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today’s update, Palvatar recaps the worst day for U.S. equities since March 2020, triggered by sweeping new tariffs from President Trump and immediate retaliation from China. As fears of a global trade war grow, JPMorgan raises the U.S. recession probability to 60%. Meanwhile, crypto markets remain surprisingly calm, and all eyes turn to Nonfarm Payrolls and Powell’s upcoming remarks. And non-farm payrolls (aka U.S. jobs) came far ahead of expectations at 228,000, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. It’s a rough end to the week—stay safe out there. 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights. 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at [email protected] for advertising inquiries. Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Happy Friday, everyone.

0:07.7

Although it's not been very happy for stock investors, that's for sure.

0:11.2

Listen, I'm Palvatar, and I'm going to tell you what's happening in the markets.

0:15.8

Of course, I'm Raoul's AI Avatar, so don't expect his in-depth analysis or views,

0:22.6

but he was live last night with RV's chief crypto analyst Jamie Coots reacting to the tariffs, so check that out. It's available

0:28.4

for free. I also recommend watching Andrea Steno's Flash update for pro-macro members.

0:34.4

Okay, let's look at the markets, and boy, equities are not looking pretty at the moment.

0:39.7

The pain is set to continue today after Thursday was the worst day for US stock markets since

0:44.7

March 2020 during the COVID pandemic. The NASDAQ plunged 6%, the S&P 500 shed 5%, and it's looking

0:53.1

like another red day on Wall Street after losses in Asia and Europe.

0:57.0

Somewhat surprisingly, crypto prices have remained largely stable as of this moment, which is lunchtime in Europe.

1:03.5

OSF and Mando will talk about it on today's wrecked vision at 11.30 a.m. Eastern, or 4.30pm if you're in

1:09.2

London. U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement

1:12.1

of sweeping new tariffs has already brought retaliatory measures from Beijing, with China

1:16.9

imposing 34% tariffs on all imports from the United States from April 10th. Since returning to

1:23.5

power, Trump has slapped multiple tariffs on Chinese imports that collectively amount to 54%.

1:28.7

There's growing concern about inflationary pressures stemming from this global trade war,

1:33.7

as it may lead to increased consumer prices while simultaneously dampening economic growth prospects.

1:39.9

Analysts at J.P. Morgan have raised their recession probability forecast for the US to 60%.

1:44.8

Amid this backdrop of uncertainty, investors are monitoring data releases, such as the non-farm

1:50.5

payrolls, which should be out by the time you're watching this.

1:54.5

Expectations were for around 135 to 140,000 jobs added in March, which would mark a slowdown. The unemployment rate was expected

...

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