Two weeks to total Tory wipeout?

The Rundown by PoliticsHome

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4.1 • 105 Ratings

🗓️ 20 June 2024

⏱️ 78 minutes

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Summary

With two weeks of the campaign to go Scarlett Maguire, director at pollsters JL Partners, Andrew Roe-Crines, Senior Lecturer in British Politics at Liverpool University, and Philip Catney, senior politics lecturer at Keele University, look at what a crushing new series of polls means for Rishi Sunak, and the role Reform UK are playing in a potential Tory wipeout. Dr Hannah Bunting, lecturer in Quantitative British Politics at Exeter University comes on to discuss with PolHome reporter Zoe Crowther what role tactical voting could play on July 4, William Kedjanyi, Head of Political Content at Star Sports bookmakers, talks about the rise of political betting, while Dr Phil Burton-Cartledge, author of the book The Party's Over: The Rise and Fall of the Conservatives from Thatcher to Sunak, and Henry Hill, acting editor of the website ConservativeHome, look at what the Conservative party might look like after a crushing defeat, and voters in key swing seats reveal what they make of it all thanks to our Election Diaries project, in partnership with ThinksInsight.

Presented by Alain Tolhurst, and produced by Lulu Goad for Podot

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello and welcome to The Rundown, a podcast from Politics Home.
0:08.6	I'm your host Alan Tollust, and with two weeks left to go until polling day,
0:12.4	we're looking at what a crushing new series of polls means for Isha Sunak as he tries to keep the Tory campaign afloat,
0:17.7	and the role reform are playing in influencing the two main parties' messaging.
0:24.6	Later in the episode, we'll look at what role tactical voting could play on July 4th, talk about the rise of political betting, look ahead of what the Conservative Party might look like after a crushing defeat,
0:30.6	and we'll also have the latest on an election diaries project, hearing from voters in key swing seats.
0:34.6	So to start with and assess some extraordinary polling, I have Scarlett
0:39.0	Maguire, Director at Polsters JL Partners, Andrew Rowe Crines, Senior Lecturer in British Politics
0:43.9	at Liverpool University, and Philip Katney, senior politics lecturer at Keel University.
0:49.0	So I'm going to start with you, Scarlett. We're speaking on Thursday morning. Wednesday saw
0:54.0	three huge new
0:55.8	MRP polls looking at seat by seats, which I think the most generous of those, the Conservatives
1:01.6	had them on 155 seats, which would be their worst defeat for about 120 years. You should explain
1:07.8	kind of how those MRP polls work and why does such a discrepancy,
1:12.0	I think the lowest one had them down at just 53 seats, which would be absolutely extraordinary.
1:17.3	Yeah, it's a really good question. I think this is probably the first time, certainly during this
1:23.2	campaign, that there's been a sort of proper amount of scrutiny on MRPs. So MRPs are a type of model,
1:30.5	multi-level regression post-stratification that I use a very large sample of voters from sort of
1:36.9	constituencies across the country to try and work out what will go on in each individual
1:41.7	constituency. And that's when you get the sort of vote shares that
1:45.5	they get out of that now two things can affect an MRP and can then as a result lead to different
1:52.1	results the first of is the data going into it so depending on what the sample is who in it who's in it
	...

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