This is the Cato Daily Podcast for Friday, October 25, 2004.

I'm Caleb Brown.

How seriously should Taiwan and, by extension, the U extension the US take China's military exercises around the

island nation? Kate O'Rig Gomez comments that the military exercises aren't exactly new,

and a full-scale invasion may not be imminent but it does pose a risk

that the US shouldn't discount given at the very least US pledges to defend Taiwan.

It's no secret that China considers Taiwan a part of China.

And I think China perhaps has a fairly long time horizon over fully

subsuming Taiwan into China. The United States has made a bunch of unclear promises to Taiwan with

respect to our actions should China invade or attempt to take over the large island.

And military exercises that China has engaged in,

as you told me just a few minutes before we started recording, engaged in apparently in The most recent one that took place in mid-October 2024 and in May of 2024 were both closely following major speeches by Taiwan's new president, Leiching Te.

The first one in May was after his inauguration.

The second one was after Taiwan's National Day, which is October 10th.

In both speeches, Lai said some things

about how Taiwan was not subordinate to China.

He hasn't come outright and said,

we are an independent country,

but he is sort of saying this thing

about how, listen, we're basically independent already because we have a separate

political system and separate way of life and, you know, like, we're not just going to

sort of be this junior partner to China and China

...