Welcome to a new week with Real Vision and me, Palvatar, Raul's AI Avatar.

I'm here to bring you the latest market news, but if you want the views and analysis of the real Raul,

you really should tune in to his drink session on Wednesday, where you can ask him any

question you like. It'll be on Wednesday at 6pm Eastern Time, so mark your calendars.

Meanwhile, here's what's driving the markets. U.S. retail sales are in focus today with

expectations of a rebound in February compared to the month before. Investors are waiting

for an update to the Atlanta Fed's GDP now model later today,

which at the moment is now casting a sharp drop in the US GDP for the first quarter.

Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said there were, quote,

no guarantees that the country would avoid a recession in the short term

and called market corrections healthy.

The OECD has cut GDP growth forecasts for several G20 economies due to tariffs, including the US,

which is now expected to grow 2.2% this year and 1.6% next year.

It also predicted no change to interest rates by the Fed until mid-20206, due to

inflationary pressures stemming from trade barriers. Speaking of the Fed, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday

is certainly the biggest event on the economic calendar this week, but the overwhelming

consensus is that interest rates won't be changed. Even so, investors will be listening

closely to the subsequent press conference by Fed Chair Jay Powell for any clues on the impact

of President Donald Trump's trade war on future monetary policy. The Bank of Japan and the Bank

of England also meet this week, but similarly are not expected to change rates. In China, retail sales

in January and February picked up, and industrial output beat expectations. However, the labour market

remained under pressure, with the survey-based jobless rate last month hitting 5.4%. That's the highest

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