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🗓️ 7 February 2025
⏱️ 55 minutes
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0:00.0 | be an incredibly noisy report, not just because of that large benchmark revision, but also the fact that the household survey, which is being revised right now based on census data, unfortunately, is also really problematic. |
0:13.8 | The Census Bureau has already said they've had a lot of problems with their surveys recently, that the data is less reliable than usual. And so I have |
0:22.8 | really very little faith, frankly, that these numbers are not going to see further revisions |
0:27.3 | in the future. The other thing to keep in mind, since there was a comment about the Biden |
0:31.0 | administration and this bringing some kind of closure, this benchmark only goes through March |
0:36.3 | of last year. In other words, you still have a whole other three quarters that are eventually going to get benchmark. |
0:42.3 | And again, if you look at the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that points to a huge overestimation of job growth in the second quarter of last year. |
0:50.3 | And the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is saying the same thing. Their estimate for |
0:55.1 | the benchmark is that you're going to lose about 800,000 jobs. And that's just for a quarter, |
0:59.8 | not for a whole year. So this idea that somehow the numbers are in the books and they're never |
1:04.7 | going to be revised again, I think we have to realize that that's just not going to be the case. |
1:09.1 | Now, going forward, one of the things we have to consider is the fact that, unfortunately, the labor market is still |
1:15.5 | facing a lot of headwinds, not the least of which has to do with the fact that this nation is |
1:20.2 | buried so deeply in debt. And much of the hiring that we have seen over the last several years |
1:25.6 | has been based on taking on that debt. That debt, |
1:29.0 | obviously, is going to have to eventually get repaid. And if it's not repaid in terms of what you |
1:34.5 | might call it nominal repayment, it'll still be repaid in real terms. In other words, more inflation. |
1:40.0 | A lot of the government debt that was issued over the last several years has already been paid for. |
1:45.4 | It's been paid for by that hidden tax of inflation. |
1:49.2 | David, my favorite stat, with the exception of January of 1970, the unemployment rate is lowered today than it was for every single month of the 70s, the 80s, and the 90s. |
2:01.4 | Wow. |
2:02.0 | Yeah. |
... |
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