NPR.

This is the indicator from Planet Money, I'm Darym Woods.

In 2011, Goldman Sachs predicted China would seize America's crown for the world's biggest economy by

26.

A couple of years ago, Goldman Sachs pushed that date back.

2035 was when China would become dominant.

But since then, China's faced economic hurdles.

Some people are now questioning whether China will ever have an

economy larger than the US. And this matters. One sixth of all the world's economic activity

happens in China. Whoever has the largest economy can afford the largest military. They can sweeten

more alliances and have a larger say in how the world

is run. As the world's number two economy, China's growth directly challenges U.S. dominance.

And to help us figure out how fast China might grow or not, we have NPR's China correspondent

John Rewich. Welcome, John.

Hey, great to be here, Daryan.

So China just wrapped up its annual session of Parliament, the National People's Congress.

And this is a once-a-year opportunity to take the pulse on what China's leaders are thinking about the economy.

One big announcement at the start of the event that everybody's looking for is the target for economic growth.

This year, it's around 5%. Around 5%. Okay. Sounds solid and it's higher than US growth than GDP,

gross domestic product. Yeah, and it's the same as it was last year. Now, achieving that rate of growth is possible, but not guaranteed.

This question of Chinese growth is critical for the global economy. So today's show, we

cross the Pacific to see the headwinds and tailwinds facing this industrial giant.

...