When will the next earthquake hit?

CrowdScience

BBC

Science, Technology

4.8 • 985 Ratings

🗓️ 9 February 2024

⏱️ 28 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In 2011, CrowdScience listener Amanda survived the devastating earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand.

It arrived unannounced - as all earthquakes do - leaving her with no time to prepare a response. So Amanda wants to know whether science will ever be able to give us advance warning of quakes.

To explore her question CrowdScience heads to New Zealand to meet listener Amanda, as well as the brains behind the country’s earthquake forecasting models. We dig in a field for thousand-year-old tectonic clues that could help us understand when the next earthquake might strike. But even if we could get a head start against a quake, would we respond in the right way?

Please note: earthquake response advice varies by location. Please check local guidance and individual building procedures.

Featuring:

Nicola Litchfield, Principal Scientist in Paleoseismology at GNS, Wellington, New Zealand Matt Gerstenberger, Seismologist and leader of the National Seismic Hazard Model, GNS, Wellington, New Zealand Andy Howell, University of Canterbury, New Zealand Lauren Vinnell, Lecturer in Emergency Management at the Joint Centre for Disaster Research at Massey University

Presenter: Caroline Steel Producer: Emily Bird Editor: Cathy Edwards Production: Jonathan Harris, Jana Holesworth Sound Engineer: Steve Greenwood

(Photo: Earthquake damage in Christchurch. Credit: John Crux Photography)

Transcript

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0:00.0	Take some time for yourself with soothing classical music from the mindful mix, the Science of
0:07.0	Happiness Podcast.
0:08.0	For the last 20 years I've dedicated my career to exploring the science of living a happier more meaningful life and I want
0:14.4	to share that science with you.
0:16.1	And just one thing, deep calm with Michael Mosley.
0:19.4	I want to help you tap in to your hidden relaxation response system and open the door to that
0:25.4	calmer place within. Listen on BBC Sounds. So I'm just going to dig a hole first to take the soil out of the very top of the
0:39.3	soil out just so that we can put it back in and then I'll drill using that other piece of equipment.
0:44.6	You're listening to crowd science from the BBC World Service.
0:47.8	I'm Caroline Steele and this is me with geologist Nicola digging into a field in New Zealand.
0:54.0	What we're looking for can't be found on any map.
0:57.0	In fact, we're not even certain that it's down there.
1:00.0	And that's because it's been hiding underground for thousands of years.
1:05.0	We'll hear what we're digging for and if we find it later on in the show.
1:10.0	But this week's story starts in another part of New Zealand,
1:13.1	in a suburb of Christchurch called Sumner.
1:15.7	Here's Crowd Science listener Amanda.
1:17.4	I'm from Christich, New Zealand,
1:19.0	and I'd really like to know how close is science
1:21.9	to being able to give us a decent warning before there was a major earthquake.
1:28.6	Amanda's question comes from her own personal experience.
1:33.0	We were living in Sumner at the time of the 2011 earthquake, which had a huge impact on the
	...

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