Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

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What's going on, guys? It is Monday, September 20th, and if you are anything like me, your brain

absolutely rebels at the idea of seemingly arbitrary things like market seasonality, or, more

specifically, a single month every year being bad for Bitcoin.

Historically, though, September's are bad for Bitcoin. Let's look at the data. In 2011, we were down 37.32%.

In 2012, the other way, 22.05% up. In 2013, down about 1.76%. In 2014, down about 19%. In 2015, up 2.35%, 2016, up 6%.

2017 down 7.44%, 2018 down 5.58%, 2019 down 13.38%, 2020 down 7.51% and 2021 down 5.26% so far.

Now, of course, the farther back you get, the more questionable the data, but as you can see, especially since 2013, it's been fairly consistent.

Since 2014 and not including 2021, September has averaged

7.8% down. That's the third worst month, with January being the second worst month at negative

8.3%, and March at negative 14.2%. Although given this year's big January, which was 14.51% up,

and March, which was 29.84% up, that average might make

September look even worse historically.

So what is going on?

Here are a few of the very general explanations people give on why September is bad.

One that I've read quite a bit is back to school and jobs. So the logic

here, I guess, is people are just focused elsewhere, so markets are weak, or there are distractions

and other demands. I don't really know. People say back to school and jobs a lot without ever

actually explaining what they mean by back to school and jobs being bad for markets, so make of

that what you will. Another one that

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