538’s New Forecast Says The Election Is A Toss-Up

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

Politics, News

4.6 • 20.5K Ratings

🗓️ 11 June 2024

⏱️ 36 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The 2024 presidential election forecast is live. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris to talk about the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. While Trump leads in the polls nationally and in the battleground states, the fundamentals favor Biden, resulting in an extremely close call between the two. Elliott and Galen discuss the sources of uncertainty in the forecast and what we might expect between now and Election Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	November of the 5th, your birthday?
0:02.0	Literally.
0:03.0	Oh, man, you got upstage this year.
0:05.0	I get upstage almost every year because my birthday is always the first week of November.
0:08.8	I have canceled my birthday party on multiple occasions because of elections.
0:12.0	Oh, man. Well this year we'll do both.
0:13.6	Okay, yeah, yeah, exactly.
0:14.9	And by the way, not to upstate you,
0:16.6	you just had a birthday.
0:17.7	We weren't going to launch the model on my birthday,
0:20.0	which felt like it had been fun. Oh my God, wouldn't that have been fun?
0:23.0	Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics Podcast, I'm Gailand Rook,
0:35.0	and if you are listening to this podcast,
0:38.0	it means that the 2024 presidential election forecast
0:41.0	has launched.
0:42.0	It shows Biden and Trump with tied
0:45.0	likelihoods of winning the presidency. Specifically right now it shows
0:49.3	Biden with a 52% chance of winning and Trump with a 48% chance.
0:55.0	For the record, we're recording this around noon on Monday, June 10th
0:58.6	in case the forecast has changed between now and when you're hearing this. We're going to dig into a lot of what's in the
1:04.5	forecast but if you'd like to check it out for yourself head on over to 538.com
1:09.2	you'll be able to see things like in 1,000 simulations of the election,
	...

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