FiveThirtyEight Politics

After months of promising to impose tariffs on U.S. trading partners, President Donald Trump has made good on his word. On Friday, he announced 10 percent tariffs on China and 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, though the latter has been delayed by a month. Today on the 538 Politics podcast, the crew breaks down these tariff orders and how Americans feel about them. They also dive into Trump’s approval rating using 538’s new tracker and discuss how Democrats are preparing for a future counteroffensive. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 3 February 2025

This week, the Trump administration oversaw a federal funding fiasco. The Office of Management and Budget issued a memo attacking DEI programs and putting trillions in government funding at risk. States sued, and the administration backtracked —rescinding the memo but keeping the underlying order intact. As this unfolds, we ask: How much power does Trump’s administration actually have to withhold funding? Matt Glassman, senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, joins the podcast to discuss impoundment, executive power and the legal battles ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 30 January 2025

President Donald Trump begins his second term as one of the least popular presidents in modern polling history. Yet, many of his policies — such as those surrounding DEI programs and immigration — are more popular than ever. What do Americans want from Trump’s second term? The crew delves into this question, exploring thermostatic public opinion, Trump’s strategy of testing the waters on key issues and the nuances of question wording. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 27 January 2025

The first few days of President Donald Trump’s second term have featured an avalanche of executive orders. But Trump’s authority as commander-in-chief will only take his agenda so far. His most ambitious goals must pass through Congress, where Republicans control both chambers, albeit by slim margins. On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen is joined by Rachael Bade, Politico’s Capitol Hill bureau chief and senior Washington columnist. They discuss congressional Republicans’ plans for the coming months, what they’re saying behind closed doors and what, if anything, Democrats plan to do to resist Trump’s agenda. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 23 January 2025

The crew reacts to President Donald Trump’s second inaugural address, as well as Trump’s plans for issuing dozens of executive orders. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 21 January 2025

With just days remaining in President Joe Biden’s term, the crew reflects on the past four years and tries to determine how this administration will be remembered. What were the high points, the low points and the most notable moments? They discuss Biden’s industrial policymaking, the vaccine rollout, inflation and the tumultuous summer of 2024. And they cover the destructive wildfires currently impacting Los Angeles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 16 January 2025

With one week remaining before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, the nation is orienting itself towards his policy goals. Will they include the addition of new American territory? On this episode of the podcast, the crew breaks down Trump’s recent comments about Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal. They also unpack how they are thinking about these types of comments from Trump — should they be taken literally, seriously or both? And, the crew discusses former President Jimmy Carter’s life and legacy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 13 January 2025

What’s on the horizon for American politics in 2025? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the team dives into what lies ahead. They start with Washington, analyzing President-elect Donald Trump’s first 100 days and the challenges Republicans face with their slim congressional majority. Next, they explore how public opinion on critical issues like the economy and immigration could evolve with Trump back in office. Finally, the crew turns to 2025’s pivotal electoral races, breaking down what’s at stake in the year to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 6 January 2025

What would you save to remember 2024 in politics? In the second part of our end-of-year series on the 538 Politics podcast, the crew builds a time capsule to capture the political essence of the year. From a Dean Phillips bumper sticker to President-elect Donald Trump’s 16-page indictment and the 538 polling average, they debate what deserves to be preserved. Plus, a discussion on the looming government shutdown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 19 December 2024

How do you measure a year? In votes cast? Money spent? Or in “seasons of love”? On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to find out by making a yearbook and assigning superlatives. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 16 December 2024

Earlier this year, as President-elect Donald Trump mounted his campaign to return to the presidency, it seemed like one of the biggest barriers to his election would be the battery of criminal and civil cases that had been filed against him. Now, as we near Trump’s inauguration day, what will happen to them? Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the podcast to unpack the fate of the legal cases against Trump. She provides clarity on the status of the major cases, discusses the potential impact of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling on Trump’s presidency, and examines President Joe Biden’s use of the pardon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 12 December 2024

What even happened last week?! On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew catches Galen up as he returns from a rare week away from his push notifications. They take a look at President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks, the status of House Republicans’ slim majority, and examine the polling on President Joe Biden’s controversial pardon of his son Hunter. They also turn an eye to foreign affairs, checking in on recent developments in South Korea and Syria. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 9 December 2024

In this post-election mailbag episode, the crew tackles your burning questions about the 2024 election. Why did Democrats have lower turnout than four years ago? Is misinformation skewing some voters’ view of reality? Did Harris lose because of her candidacy and campaign style, or due to the broader political environment? And where does post-election voter data even come from, anyways? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 5 December 2024

Galen is out today, so 538’s Nathaniel Rakich steps in to guide the crew through the numbers. They unpack President Joe Biden’s surprise decision to pardon his son Hunter, exploring the historical context for such a move and how it might resonate with the American public. They also turn their attention to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing the prospects for both the House and Senate. They discuss whether Republicans can hang on to their trifecta, and examine the challenges Democrats face in their efforts to reclaim control of Congress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 2 December 2024

In this Thanksgiving week installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew sits down for a three-course discussion. First, a new poll suggests that economic sentiment data might be even more warped by partisanship than we thought. After that, it’s another round of "Buy, Sell, Hold." Will the Senate confirm Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence? Will President-elect Donald Trump pardon himself? Finally, the crew considers whether 2024 will go down as the death knell of the incumbent advantage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 25 November 2024

Election Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls. Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years. But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we evaluate how the polls did, covering the good, the bad and the statistically insignificant. Hold on to your priors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 21 November 2024

We are beginning to get a clearer view of what a second Trump administration might look like. President-elect Donald Trump is announcing his cabinet picks, the size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus, and this has all led to predictions about what will and won’t happen in a second Trump administration. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we turn to predictions markets and polling to assess the expectations that consumers, Wall Street traders, online bettors and everyday Americans have for Trump's second term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 18 November 2024

Latino voters made a big jump to the right this election cycle. While the numbers aren’t final, AP Votecast reports an 8-point shift and Edison exit polls indicate more than a 14-point swing. Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, joins us on the podcast to unpack why Latino voters shifted right. He discusses the importance of issues like the economy and immigration, Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have emerged as one of the nation’s most prominent swing groups. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 14 November 2024

Since Election Day, there’s been no shortage of hot takes explaining what happened and what it all means. Have Democrats lost the working class? Does President-elect Donald Trump have an unprecedentedly powerful mandate? Were the polls wrong? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew dives into these questions and others, determining which ones are more fact than fiction. They also check in on the status of the House and Senate and discuss how many downballot Democrats managed to overperform compared to Vice President Kamala Harris. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 11 November 2024

In this late-night, election-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the results showing Donald Trump winning a second presidential term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 6 November 2024

At long last, Election Day is upon us. In this final pre-results episode, the crew shares a guide for what to expect on election night — from the first poll closures in Indiana, to the last poll closures in Alaska. They set expectations for how long the vote may take to tally and which counties to keep an eye on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 5 November 2024

Polls were coming in hot and heavy over the weekend! In fact, 164 surveys were entered into the 538 database since Friday. In this Election Day eve episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior researcher Mary Radcliffe and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about what we are seeing in those final polls. They discuss the famed Iowa Poll from Ann Selzer, which showed a rosy picture for Harris, and the battleground polling from the New York Times, which showed results that frustrate some of the trends we've come to expect this cycle. They also share some final thoughts on the election in the run up to the big day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 4 November 2024

It’s not just election season; it’s spooky season, too. In this Halloween installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew opens up the mailbag and answers listeners’ questions. Does favorability matter? Can bad weather affect turnout? And what would you do with an election crystal ball? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 31 October 2024

Looking back on the 2020 election, the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day stands out as one of the most fraught and uncertain in recent American history. Will 2024 follow a similar path? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, to provide a clearer picture of what we might expect after Election Day. They discuss when results could be expected, the types of misinformation that may circulate after the votes are cast, and why this election is seeing more litigation than any before it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 30 October 2024

Last week, John Kelly, former President Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, said Trump fit the definition of a “fascist.” Democrats have seized on the comment, using it to underline Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies in these final days before Election Day. On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how much voters care about democracy. And they look at a new poll that might shed light on the behavior of a new group of swing voters: young men. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 28 October 2024

We are awash in data. As Election Day draws near, and new polls continue to pile up, our information overload will only intensify. So today on the 538 Politics podcast, we’re simplifying. We asked 11 very smart people just one question: What is the most valuable data point you’re watching to understand this election? These are their answers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 24 October 2024

For decades, Republicans were thought of as the country club set, while Democrats were the party of the working class. But increasingly, education has become a larger dividing line in American politics than economic status. This trend has seen college-educated voters move toward the Democratic Party and non-college-educated voters shift toward Republicans. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Matt Grossmann and David Hopkins, authors of "Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics." They explore how this educational divide is reshaping not just electoral outcomes, but the way each party approaches governance and policy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 23 October 2024

With Election Day just two weeks away, Republicans and Democrats are zeroing in on undecided voters. But the profile of the typical swing voter has changed. Move over, soccer moms. Say hello to … podcast bros? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at who the undecided voters are in this election. They also examine what appears to be a surprisingly competitive Senate race in ruby-red Nebraska. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 21 October 2024

We talk plenty about the presidential race on the 538 Politics podcast, but of course, that is not the only thing on the ballot this November. Americans will cast their votes in races for the U.S. Senate and House, as well as dozens of ballot initiatives. In this installment of the podcast, we’re going on a road trip across the country to cover as many noteworthy downballot races as possible. We start in the 538 podcast studio in New York state, where House Democrats are hoping for a better outcome than their lackluster 2022 performance, and we end in Alaska. Grab your favorite snacks and get in! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 17 October 2024

With three weeks until Election Day, the 538 crew analyzes the state of what remains an extremely close presidential race. They also wade into the (very nerdy) debate over “weighting by recalled vote” that is roiling the polling community. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 14 October 2024

For those in swing states, political ads are an inescapable part of life. But if you haven’t experienced the blitz firsthand, this episode of the 538 Politics podcast offers a glimpse into the barrage of campaign messages flooding our screens. Erika Franklin Fowler, director of the Wesleyan Media Project and professor of government at Wesleyan University, joins the podcast to break down the wave of ads hitting TVs, phones and browsers this election season. We explore whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris has the upper hand and the topics dominating both national and downballot races. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 10 October 2024

There is officially less than a month until Election Day. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we consider what it would mean for the Electoral College map if the polls are correct in suggesting a racial and generational realignment. We also look at how views of the conflict in the Middle East have evolved in the year since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack. And, with new information about former President Donald Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election, whether his behavior surrounding the last election is shaping Americans' willingness to vote for him this time. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 7 October 2024

The crew reacts to the first and only vice-presidential debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance in this late-night podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 2 October 2024

There's a lot going on in the world as we head into the final stretch of the 2024 election: a devastating hurricane, a growing war in the Middle East, multiple high profile scandals and an upcoming VP debate. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks whether any of these big stories are changing the subject of the campaign. They also look at what how former President Trump and Vice President Harris are appealing to voters on some of the issues voters say are most important to them: the economy, immigration and abortion. Both Harris and Trump recently gave major economic speeches, Harris talked tough on immigration during a visit to the Southern border and Trump tried to allay concerns about his stance on abortion. But are they changing voters' perceptions? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 30 September 2024

We are in the frantic final weeks of the presidential campaign, which means Americans are obsessing over polling data more than usual. At 538, we cover this stuff year-round. So today on the show, we’re going back to the fundamentals. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a seasoned political hack or a bright-eyed newcomer: Everyone can benefit from our 10 Essentials Of Following Polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 26 September 2024

As early voting kicks off in states across the country, the crew dives into an intensifying election season on this week’s installment of the 538 Politics podcast. They discuss whether early voting data can offer clues about November's outcome, analyze conflicting polls from key battleground states and examine the potential for a shift in the GOP’s Electoral College advantage. Plus, the team previews 538’s new Senate polling averages, focusing on the races that could determine control of the chamber. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 23 September 2024

Earlier this year, it seemed like the long-standing pattern of Black voters as steadfast Democrats was shifting, with a record-high percentage choosing former President Donald Trump in survey after survey. However, Vice President Kamala Harris's candidacy has sparked new enthusiasm among Black voters, boosting both engagement and her popularity. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen examines these shifts with Chryl Laird, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland, and Kiana Cox, a senior researcher at the Pew Research Center, exploring the evolving political landscape and what Harris's run means for Black voter dynamics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 19 September 2024

The U.S. Secret Service thwarted another apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump over the weekend. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen speaks with 538's Mary Radcliffe and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik about how Americans view political violence. They also look at whether presidential election polls have shifted in response to last week's debate and discuss a recent Gallup analysis showing a yawning gender gap among young Americans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 16 September 2024

The crew reacts to the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in this late night podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 11 September 2024

As an extremely close presidential campaign heads into the homestretch, economic news abounds. The jobs report released last week fell short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve appears ready to cut interest rates later this month. Will any of it matter? Or have Americans generally made up their minds about this economy? Plus, the crew previews Tuesday night’s presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, and they test their knowledge of historic debate moments. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 9 September 2024

Election Day is exactly two months away, meaning the final stretch of the presidential campaign is upon us. On Tuesday’s show, we assessed the current state of the race and how we got here. Today, we look ahead to the knowns and unknowns that could shake up the race in the coming weeks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 5 September 2024

Labor Day is behind us and the conventional final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign is here. There will be a rush of advertising, debates, more urgent attention paid to jobs reports, and October surprises. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we look at where we are in the campaign and how we got here. In the second episode this week, we'll look at what to expect over the coming two months. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 3 September 2024

This month both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump released a slate of economic proposals in an attempt to gain the upper hand on the issue most important to voters. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about the current state of the economy, voter perceptions of it and how the candidates’ proposals might shape both of those factors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 29 August 2024

Just as the Democratic National Convention wrapped up, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the 2024 race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to parse the effect that both events could have on the presidential race. They also look to Washington state's primary for an indication of how the House popular vote might play out this fall. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 26 August 2024

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 23 August 2024

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the third night of the Democratic National Convention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 22 August 2024

The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 21 August 2024

The Democratic National Convention is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses what to expect from the Democrats' weeklong pitch to voters. They also consider how a shorter general election timeline changes the dynamics of the race and how Vice President Kamala Harris's coalition is different from President Joe Biden's. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 19 August 2024

One of the most promising electoral trends for Republicans during the Trump era has been a shift among Latino voters toward Republicans. The eight percentage point swing from Clinton in 2016 to Trump in 2020 represented the largest shift of any racial or ethnic group in either direction. And the erosion of support for Democrats didn’t stop there. In a poll of Latino voters in battleground states from the research group Equis in May, Biden was leading Trump among Latinos by only 5 percentage points. But Biden is no longer in the race, so do any of these trends still apply? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with co-founder of Equis Research Carlos Odio about the new trends among Latino voters now that Harris is at the top of the ticket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 15 August 2024

The contours of the Harris-Trump race are coming further into focus. Vice President Kamala Harris just wrapped up a weeklong tour of the battleground states with her newly minted running mate and former President Donald Trump has been weighing in on all matter of topics on social media and in a lengthy press conference. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about the latest polling of the race, perceptions of the candidates and why some on the right are now taking issue with the polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 12 August 2024