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Coffee House Shots

‘An era of five-party politics’: John Curtice on the significance of the local elections

Coffee House Shots

The Spectator

News, Politics, Government, Daily News

4.42.1K Ratings

🗓️ 26 April 2025

⏱️ 21 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Legendary pollster Prof Sir John Curtice joins the Spectator’s deputy political editor James Heale to look ahead to next week’s local elections. The actual number of seats may be small, as John points out, but the political significance could be much greater. If polling is correct, Reform could win a ‘fresh’ by-election for the first time, the mayoralties could be shared between three or more parties, and we could see a fairly even split in terms of vote share across five parties (Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives, the Green party, and Reform UK). 

The 2024 general election saw five GB-wide parties contest most seats for the first time. These set of local elections could solidify this ‘five-party political system'. In fact, says John, ‘Reform have already won these local elections’ by virtue of being able to contest all the seats available. Are we headed for a different kind of politics in Britain?

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:06.4

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0:11.7

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0:14.6

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0:30.5

Hello and welcome to this special Saturday edition of Coffee House Shots.

0:33.5

I'm delighted to be joined today by the legendary pollster Sir John Curtis.

0:37.2

Now John, a huge set of local elections up next week.

0:38.8

Talk us through the top lines in terms of what we're likely to see. It's not a huge set of local elections. It's a remarkably small

0:44.2

set of local elections because we only have elections for 23 councils, most of them county

0:50.6

councils, which are often more difficult to be, together with six moralities. What of course you mean is that there's a big set of elections in terms of

0:58.1

Westminster's interest in what they are going to tell us, because of course, these are

1:03.1

elections that are occurring at the time when the opinion polls suggest that support for the UK

1:08.7

Labour government has fallen away more rapidly than that

1:11.9

for any newly elected government and that reform are the principal party to have risen

1:18.7

since the last election, as a result of which Labour and Reform roughly neck and neck in the opinion

1:24.0

polls, Conservatives who have shown so far no sign of recovery, if anything,

1:29.6

in a slightly worse position than they were last July. But with the Greens, still knocking

1:34.8

even more loudly on the door than they have done in the past. And the Democrats also,

1:40.3

if anything, in a slightly better position they were last summer. So we're all just wondering what this is going to mean for the outcome of local elections

1:49.5

or to put it slightly differently.

1:51.5

Will the local elections confirm the message of the opinion polls

1:54.9

that a reform are indeed a significant threat to the conventional British two-party system and indeed,

...

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