Coffee House Shots

Legendary pollster Prof Sir John Curtice joins the Spectator’s deputy political editor James Heale to look ahead to next week’s local elections. The actual number of seats may be small, as John points out, but the political significance could be much greater. If polling is correct, Reform could win a ‘fresh’ by-election for the first time, the mayoralties could be shared between three or more parties, and we could see a fairly even split in terms of vote share across five parties (Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives, the Green party, and Reform UK).  The 2024 general election saw five GB-wide parties contest most seats for the first time. These set of local elections could solidify this ‘five-party political system'. In fact, says John, ‘Reform have already won these local elections’ by virtue of being able to contest all the seats available. Are we headed for a different kind of politics in Britain? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 26 April 2025

Despite this being the week that Kemi Badenoch finally showed some steel in PMQs, it’s Robert Jenrick who has been stealing the headlines. That’s for lots of reasons – mainly his comments about a potential Tory Reform pact, which he clarified on Good Morning Britain this morning, saying: ‘Kemi Badenoch and I are on exactly the same page. Kemi has been very clear there won’t be a pact with Reform, and I’ve said time and again that I want to put Reform out of business. I want to send Nigel Farage back to retirement.’ This follows leaked footage which surfaced this week from a student event in late March, where he appeared to suggest that he would back a pact to join forces with Farage. Elsewhere, he had a big win when Yvette Cooper announced that the government will publish migrant crime league tables – a policy he has pushed for. Is he the prince across the water? Or do we need to give Kemi a break? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Henry Hill, deputy editor at Conservative Home. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 25 April 2025

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been in Washington D.C. this week at the IMF’s spring meetings, and will meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tomorrow. Cue the ususal talk of compromising on chlorinated chicken. Not so, reports the Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons, who explains that Reeves may offer a reduction in long-standing tariffs already imposed on American cars. But, it’s been a bad week of economic news for the Chancellor as the IMF downgraded the UK’s growth forecast. We’re also one week away from the local elections – Starmer’s first big test since last year’s general election. The economy isn’t usually the number one issue at local elections but, as More in Common’s Luke Tryl explains, the cost of living crisis is still very much alive in voters’ minds. And, while Reform look set to have a good night, the economy is not their strongest policy area. What should we look out for on the night? Michael and Luke join Lucy Dunn to discuss. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.  

Transcribed - Published: 24 April 2025

Happy St George’s Day! To celebrate, we thought we would discuss who is the most patriotic political leader — and why some struggle to communicate their love of country. Keir Starmer declared in an interview with the Mirror this morning that Labour is ‘the patriotic party’. This follows a more concerted effort from those within the party to become more comfortable with the flag. But is Keir Starmer actually a patriot? How will the ‘battle of the Union Jack’ play out at the local elections? And does Reform have a point to prove when it comes to patriotism? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Claire Ainsley, former executive director of policy for the Labour party, now at the Progressive Policy Institute. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 23 April 2025

Parliament is back after the Easter holiday and the Supreme Court ruling over 'what is a woman' continues to dominate talk in Westminster. The Prime Minister has changed his tune on trans, declaring he does not think that trans women are women. This has caused some disquiet in the party, with a number of senior MPs breaking rank over the weekend. Was Starmer right to row in behind the ruling? Also on the podcast, as we edge closer to the local elections, they look increasingly important for the two main parties. Pollsters are forecasting a good result for smaller insurgent parties such as Reform and the Greens, with big losses for Labour and the Conservatives. It is not an overstatement to suggest that these could be the most important local elections in recent history. What will these elections mean for the two-party system? Natasha Feroze speaks to James Heale and Paul Goodman. Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 22 April 2025

The Liberal Democrats’ foreign affairs spokesperson Calum Miller, elected as the new MP for Bicester and Woodstock last year, joins James Heale to talk about the ambitions of the party that became the largest third party in Parliament in 100 years at the 2024 general election. They want to overtake the Conservatives to be the second party in local government – could they one day overtake the Tories to become the official opposition?  A former civil servant, Oxford University policy manager and councillor, Calum joins Coffee House Shots to talk about why he got into politics, how Brexit radicalised his desire for good governance and why, for all the fun, there is a serious point behind Ed Davey’s stunts.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 21 April 2025

Katy Balls joins Coffee House Shots for the last time as the Spectator’s political editor. Having joined the magazine ten years ago – or six prime ministers in Downing St years – what are her reflections on British politics? Katy’s lobby lunch partner from the Financial Times Stephen Bush joins Katy and Patrick Gibbons to try and make sense of a turbulent political decade, work out where the greatest risk is to the current Labour government, and attempt to make some predictions for the next ten years.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons. 

Transcribed - Published: 19 April 2025

Former Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth and Patrick Maguire from The Times join Katy Balls for her penultimate Coffee House Shots podcast as The Spectator's political editor. Since losing his seat at last year's general election, Ashworth has been CEO of Labour Together – but not for much longer as he exclusively reveals on the podcast. Less than two weeks to go from the local elections, and only a few months away from marking one year in power, what is morale like in the Labour Party? While Patrick reflects on who might, or might not, be feeling happy, Ashworth provides more reasons for Labour supporters to feel bullish – particularly when thinking about the threat from Reform. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 18 April 2025

Michael Gove and Katy Balls join James Heale to discuss their interview with the Health Secretary Wes Streeting included in this week’s special Easter edition of The Spectator. Michael identifies three key reasons why Streeting’s fate is key to the success of the government: immigration, the cost-of-living crisis and faith in the NHS. Seen as the ‘golden child’ of Number 10, Streeting has as many supporters in the Labour party as he has detractors – but his Blairite-coded image could help him take the fight to Reform.  Also on the podcast, Michael, Katy and James discuss Nigel Farage’s progress in the local election campaign. Plus, as this is Katy’s last podcast with Michael and James keep listening to the end for an ‘easter egg’ from Michael – as well as why black cabs make the best podcast studios. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 17 April 2025

With just over two weeks to go until the May elections, the latest national polling suggests an almost three-way split between Reform, Labour and the Conservatives. But will this translate to the locals? And, given these particular seats were last contested in 2021 amidst the 'Boris wave', how will the parties judge success?  The Spectator's deputy political editor James Heale and More in Common's Luke Tryl join Lucy Dunn to discuss. Will the story of the night be Tory losses and Reform  gains? Or will it be about the government's performance against opposition parties? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 16 April 2025

As Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs keep shifting, leaving countries scrambling to react, there has been some good news for Keir Starmer and the Labour government. Speaking to UnHerd, the US vice-president J.D. Vance spoke up the UK’s chances of securing a trade deal. While this would be a win for Starmer, questions remain over the substance – from agriculture to food, what would be included? And can we really believe it will happen? The Spectator’s political editor Katy Balls and deputy US editor Kate Andrews join Patrick Gibbons to discuss.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 15 April 2025

Panic has subsided over the British Steel crisis as Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, while visiting the site in Scunthorpe, confirmed that the raw materials needed to keep the furnaces running have been secured. While questions remain over the long-term future of the site, the Government are quite confident in their handling of the crisis so far – something not unhelpful with just over two weeks to go from the local elections. Less helpful is the news that over in Birmingham workers have rejected a pay deal with the Labour-run city council; the bin strike will continue. Is there more the government could be doing to end the dispute? Political editor Katy Balls and former Political Secretary to Tony Blair John McTernan join Patrick Gibbons to discuss.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 14 April 2025

Parliament was recalled from Easter recess for a rare Saturday sitting of Parliament yesterday, to debate the future of British Steel. Legislation was passed to allow the government to take control of the Chinese-owned company – Conservative MP David Davis called this 'nationalisation in all but name'. Though, with broad support across the House including from Reform leader Nigel Farage, the debate centred less around the cure and more around the cause.  Katy Balls and James Heale join Patrick Gibbons to discuss the debate, the political reaction and how much of a precedent this sets for Starmer.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 13 April 2025

Globalisation's obituary has been written many times before but, with the turmoil caused over the past few weeks with Donald Trump's various announcements on tariffs, could this mark the beginning of the end for the economic order as we know it? Tej Parikh from the Financial Times and Kate Andrews, The Spectator's deputy US editor, join economics editor Michael Simmons to make the case for why globalisation will outlive Trump. Though, as the US becomes one of the most protectionist countries in the developed world, how much damage has been done to the reputation of the US? And to what extent do governments need to adapt? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 12 April 2025

Finally, some good news for your Friday: the economy is growing! Just when everyone seems to be revising down expectations of growth, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that GDP grew by 0.5 per cent in February. It also revised January’s figures upwards to give growth for the last quarter of 0.6 per cent, and annual growth of 1.4 per cent. It looks – for now – that the Reeves recession has been put on hold and that Labour's growth agenda could be working. That said, Labour cannot afford to celebrate just yet. There is reason to believe the figures could be overstated, and there are some trust issues with the ONS – the government last week announced a review of its ‘performance and culture’. These figures also do not take into account the tumult caused by Trump's tariffs. So what can we read into them? Will Trump undo Labour's progress? Lucy Dunn speaks to Michael Simmons and Katy Balls. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 11 April 2025

Two days ago, talk of a 90-day pause on Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ was branded ‘fake news’ by the White House. But yesterday, the President confirmed a 90-day pause on the higher tariff rates on all countries apart from China. There is some confusion about whether this was The Donald's plan from the start – although the safe assumption is that it wasn't, and that someone senior in the White House sat him down and explained the market chaos he has caused. Is this 'the art of the deal’? Regarding China, the President wrote: ‘Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125 per cent, effective immediately.’ This is an increase on Trump’s part from the 104 per cent levy, which China countered with an 84 per cent tariff on American imports. What should we expect from the US–China trade war? Katy Balls speaks to Cindy Yu and Kate Andrews. Produced by Cindy Yu and Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 10 April 2025

Trump’s levies have kicked in today: including an astonishing 102 per cent tariff on China – after it missed the deadline to withdraw its retaliatory tariffs – and 20 per cent on the European Union. The combination of these explosive tariffs has sent markets sliding once again. This follows a slight recovery in the markets yesterday after suggestions by some in the Trump administration that they may be willing to negotiate the tariffs down. In the UK, the economic uncertainty has ‘turbocharged’ plans which have been whispered around Westminster for some time, including nationalising the British steel industry. Attention has also turned towards a trade deal with the US, and the complexion that might take in a post-tariff landscape and in the context of the EU reset. There is hope in government that a deal could be done in the next month. Are the tariffs forcing the government into action? How does Starmer keep both the EU and the US on side? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Shanker Singham, CEO of Competere and a former trade adviser to the UK government. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 9 April 2025

Parliament is about to go into recess for the Easter holiday and so – as is customary – Keir Starmer sat in front of the Liaison Committee this afternoon, where he was grilled on topics including tariffs, defence and welfare. This comes on the day when there has been a momentary reprieve in the markets, which experienced a modest bounce – most likely as a result of suggestions from Trump that he is willing to negotiate with China. Markets seem to have priced in that these tariffs could be negotiated down, but that is of course a big 'if'. The question remains for Keir Starmer: what more can he do to protect the UK against economic meltdown? And will he have to break his fiscal rules to do so? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Isabel Hardman and Michael Simmons. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 8 April 2025

The fallout from Trump’s tariffs continues. Last week, Donald Trump ended the free-trade era that has underpinned growth for decades (and potentially also heralded the end of globalisation). Markets around the world have taken a nosedive, prompting fears of a global recession. The only (brief) reprieve was when stock markets rallied because of a misunderstanding regarding comments made by Trump’s economic adviser. Once these had been clarified, the Nasdaq dipped once again. Republicans are starting to turn on Trump – including Elon Musk, who has been sending out some coded tweets. The strength of the reaction from the markets has drawn comparisons between Trump and Liz Truss, whose mini-Budget spooked the markets so comprehensively that she had to backtrack after just ten days. Might Trump do the same?   Meanwhile, Keir Starmer has intervened in an effort to protect the UK car industry against Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs. What other levers can he pull to reduce the impact on Brits?   Lucy Dunn speaks to Katy Balls and Kate Andrews.   Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 7 April 2025

Marine Le Pen, president of Rassemblement National (National Rally) was found guilty this week of embezzling EU funds to boost her party’s finances. The guilty verdict was widely expected, however her sentence was far harsher than even her strongest critics expected – part of which saw her banned from standing for office for five years, with immediate effect. Le Pen had been the favourite to win the next French presidential election in 2027. Pursuing Donald Trump through the courts was widely seen as backfiring as he went on to win the presidential election, and many have argued that there is a double standard with many more figures and parties facing investigation from the right than from the left. Is this a case of justice served, or another example of creeping lawfare across the West? Deputy political editor James Heale discusses with our deputy editor Freddy Gray and French journalist and writer Anne-Elisabeth Moutet.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 5 April 2025

Today marks five years since Keir Starmer became leader of the Labour party. In that time, he has gradually purged Labour of its leftist wing and wrestled the party back to the centre, winning a historic majority in 2024. But, five years on, the question remains: what does Keir Starmer stand for? He came in as the acceptable face of Corbynism but looks more and more like a Conservative with each passing domestic policy announcement (take your pick: winter fuel, waging war with the size of the state, welfare cuts etc.). Internationally, it is a different story. Despite saying little on foreign policy in the build-up to the general election, he has been widely praised for his foreign policy and his steady hand when dealing with Trump. Lucy Dunn, James Heale and John McTernan discuss the many faces of Keir Starmer.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 4 April 2025

It's the day after America 'reclaimed it's destiny', or so Donald Trump says. The President announced a raft of 'reciprocal' new tariffs from the White House rose garden, including a 10% levy on the UK which – before it comes into effect on 5th April – the government hope to negotiate down.  Other countries have come off much worse. China, for example, will experience a 34 per cent ‘discounted reciprocal tariffs’, compared to the 67 per cent Trump claims China puts on US goods. The European Union will experience 20 per cent levies, compared to the 39 per cent Trump also says is put on US goods. ‘We’re a very kind people, we’re very kind,’ the President said of Americans. But ‘not so kind when you get ripped off’. The EU says they have a 'strong plan' to retaliate, how might this jeopardise Starmer's European reset? And is the UK's lower rate a rare example of a Brexit benefit?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Freddy Gray.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson. 

Transcribed - Published: 3 April 2025

It’s World Tariff Day – or Liberation Day, depending on what you prefer to call it – but we won’t know for certain what levies Donald Trump will impose on the world until around 9 p.m. this evening. Sources are speculating that Trump still isn’t 100 per cent sure himself. But as the UK awaits its fate, what is the polling saying: should Starmer stand up to Trump? Also on the podcast, it’s just under a month until the local elections, and we have seen big launch events from Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats. These are the parties expecting to do well – potentially winning upwards of 400 council seats each. Labour and the Tories, meanwhile, are managing expectations. After some internal turbulence over the last month or so, could the local elections put Reform back on track? Who will be the biggest loser? Katy Balls speaks to James Heale and Luke Tryl, executive director of the polling company More in Common. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 2 April 2025

Britain’s real economic pain starts today. Overnight, the cost of living has jumped once again: energy, water, broadband, public transport, TV licences – all up. So too are council tax bills, capital gains, and vehicle taxes. And that’s before we even get to the slow stealth march of fiscal drag and the impact of World Tariff Day which could wipe out Rachel Reeve's newly restored headroom. Jonathan Reynolds was the unlucky minister on the broadcast round this morning trying to defend this increasingly bleak picture, is there any good news?  James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Michael Simmons.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson. 

Transcribed - Published: 1 April 2025

This week will see ‘World Tariff Day’ – as those in Westminster are not-so-excitedly calling Wednesday – when Donald Trump will announce a wave of new tariffs. Trump is expected to reveal plans for reciprocal tariffs aimed at addressing what he sees as an ongoing trade imbalance between the US and other countries. He argues that it is ‘finally time for the Good Ol’ USA to get some of that MONEY, and RESPECT, BACK. GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!’. It had looked as though the Prime Minister’s softly-softly approach to US relations was working and that we might avoid Trump’s levies... that was until the UK was included in the 25 per cent tariff on cars and auto parts imported into the US, along with steel. There is some hope, however. Donald Trump and Keir Starmer had a call last night in which they spoke about a limited free trade deal. The pair ‘discussed the productive negotiations between their respective teams on a UK–US economic prosperity deal, agreeing that these will continue at pace this week’. It is a knotty situation for the Prime Minister because if he cannot charm his way back into the US’s good books, he will face more calls to get tough on Donald and threaten retaliatory tariffs. What’s the mood in Westminster? And – more importantly – what’s the mood in Washington? James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Kate Andrews. Produced by Oscar Edmondson. 

Transcribed - Published: 31 March 2025

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning’s political shows. Former Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby gives his first interview since stepping down last year, and says he forgives John Smyth. Sentebale chair Sophie Chandauka accuses Prince Harry of ‘bullying at scale’. And Labour are questioned over immigration and the chancellor’s Spring Statement. Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

Transcribed - Published: 30 March 2025

An MP for 35 years, Michael Heseltine served as Environment Secretary and then Defence Secretary in Margaret Thatcher’s government. Following his well-publicised resignation in 1986, he returned to government under John Major and was Deputy Prime Minister for the last two years of Major’s premiership. Once seen as a potential successor to Thatcher and Major, he has sat in the Lords since stepping down as an MP in 2001, and in recent years has been an outspoken critic of Brexit. Lord Heseltine sits down with James Heale to discuss his thoughts on the current Labour government, how to fix Britain’s broken economy and why devolution should go further. ‘Deeply depressed’ by attacks on the civil service – Britain’s ‘rolls royce’ – he provides his thoughts on various political leaders: Starmer is handling Trump well, Reeves is handling the economy badly, Badenoch is being overshadowed by foreign affairs, and Boris Johnson demonstrated he has ‘no integrity’. And on Thatcher, he says new information has vindicated him over the Westland affair and demonstrated her ‘complicity’. His new book, From Acorns to Oaks: An Urgent Agenda to Rebuild Britain, is out now. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 29 March 2025

Join Katy Balls, Michael Gove, Lord Glasman, Lord Frost and pollster James Kanagasooriam as they unpack the highly anticipated Spring Statement and its implications for national policy and global security. Listen for: Michael’s plan for how to deal with the Donald, and why the Treasury is not fit for purpose; Maurice on his influence in the White House, and what's wrong with the current political class; David’s reflections on why Brexit was ahead of its time; and James’s explanation for Britain’s lost sense of community.

Transcribed - Published: 28 March 2025

It’s the morning after the afternoon before, and Rachel Reeves has just finished her broadcast round, where she has faced tough questions and negative splashes in the papers. The Daily Mail brands Reeves ‘deluded’, while the Daily Telegraph warns of ‘five years of record taxes’. The Guardian splashes with ‘Reeves accused of balancing books at expense of the poor’, while the Financial Times says, ‘Tax rise fears cloud Reeves’s fiscal fix’. She is navigating two main issues: first, the additional welfare reforms have caused disquiet in the Labour Party, with a potential rebellion on the horizon; second, the conversation has already turned to whether she will have to return for further tax rises in the autumn. Meanwhile, her headroom is under threat once again following this morning’s news that Donald Trump will impose a 25 per cent tariff on all imported cars. Can she keep the party – and the finances – in check? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Michael Simmons. Produced by Oscar Edmondson. For tickets to The Spectator’s Spring Statement special live Coffee House Shots, click here. 

Transcribed - Published: 27 March 2025

This afternoon, Rachel Reeves made good on her promise to deliver only one fiscal set piece per calendar year by announcing what is widely being considered a Budget... this precedes a spending review in the summer and an actual Budget in the autumn. The headline is that the Chancellor had to find £15 billion in spending cuts to restore her headroom and keep within her own ‘ironclad’ fiscal rules. This comes after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) confirmed that the £9.9 billion margin she left herself in the autumn has disappeared. The OBR has also halved its growth projections – bleak news for the government. Among the announcements: further welfare cuts after the OBR was not satisfied with the original package; some ‘final adjustments’ to Universal Credit, with the standard allowance rising from £92 per week in 2025–26 to £106 per week by 2029–30; around 10,000 civil service jobs are for the chop; defence spending will rise, at the expense of international aid; and a new target to reduce the cost of running government by 15 per cent. But what is most striking is the extent to which the government is now beholden to the OBR. Who is running this government? Can Labour deliver on growth? Katy Balls speaks to Michael Gove and David Miles, member of the OBR's Budget Responsibility Committee. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 26 March 2025

Hard hats on for the Spring Statement tomorrow, where at around midday Rachel Reeves will deliver her fiscal update (read: significant fiscal set piece). Aside from not spooking the markets, the Chancellor will be hoping that she doesn’t spook those within her own party. There are rumours of discontent circling around Westminster about a potential Labour split. We have already seen secretaries of state briefing out their discontent over potential departmental cuts. Ministers have also been breaking rank this week to criticise Rachel Reeves for accepting free Sabrina Carpenter tickets. Can she keep the party united? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and John McTernan, former political secretary to Tony Blair. Produced by Oscar Edmondson. For tickets to The Spectator's Spring Statement special live Coffee House Shots, click here. 

Transcribed - Published: 25 March 2025

Reports in the papers today say that the British government is considering scrapping its digital services tax – largely levied at American tech companies – in return for an exemption to Trump's tariffs that come into effect on April 2. Would this be an effective – or desirable – move on the British part? James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Kate Andrews. Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Cindy Yu.

Transcribed - Published: 24 March 2025

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows.  Rachel Reeves defends her record as chancellor ahead of the Spring Statement, with pressure mounting over gloomy forecasts. Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper accuses Labour of losing their moral compass, Darren Jones is told Labour are 'anti-business', and Mel Stride attempts to justify Kemi Badenoch's assertion that the country's net-zero target is 'impossible'. 

Transcribed - Published: 23 March 2025

On 23 March 2020, then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the unprecedented decision to put the UK into lockdown. To mark the 5th anniversary of that announcement this weekend, we have brought together our editor Michael Gove – then a cabinet minister under Boris – and our associate editor Toby Young – an ardent critic of the decision – to answer the question, was the government right to lock down? Was the decision a necessary and reasonable health measure based on the available evidence at the time, or a significant and avoidable violation of civil liberties by a government that was meant to champion liberal freedoms? You decide. Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 22 March 2025

It's been Kemi-takes-action week for the Conservatives, with the leader of the opposition trying to prove that she can – in fact – do policy. She launched a series of policy reviews, which will be delivered in a steady stream between now and conference, with a headline statement on Net Zero, declaring that Britain’s 2050 emissions target was ‘impossible’. That went down well with the party, and many thought her announcement felt genuinely proactive rather than reactive. After months of being criticised for not doing enough, is she finally shifting the dial? Will it be enough to avoid a local elections wipeout? Katy Balls speaks to James Heale and Paul Goodman. Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Cindy Yu. For tickets to next week's Spring Statement Coffee House Shots live, go to: www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouselive

Transcribed - Published: 21 March 2025

It’s a big day in defence. Keir Starmer began the day in Barrow talking about nuclear subs and will end the day in a meeting of the ‘coalition of the willing’ on the outskirts of London. But that coalition seems like it could be undermined by the European Commission’s decision to exclude non-EU arms makers from the bloc’s new €150 billion defence fund. Officials are keen to stress that this is not a done deal yet, but this would be a massive blow for the UK (and the US) and a big win for France. With Europe rearming, who stands to benefit? And what should we expect from the meeting of military officials later today? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Eliot Wilson, former clerk to the House of Commons, including on the Defence Committee. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 20 March 2025

The question that everyone in Westminster wants answered is what will actually be included in next week’s Spring Statement. Previously, the Spring Statement wasn’t looking like much to write home about – little more than an update. But with the economy taking a turn for the worse and her fiscal headroom narrowing, it has taken on renewed importance for Rachel Reeves, with the opposition trying their best to brand it as an ‘Emergency Budget’. What does Reeves need to do to calm the markets? Also on the podcast, Pensions Minister Torsten Bell gave an interesting interview to Newsnight last night, defending the government’s welfare reforms. Where are we with the fallout from Liz Kendall’s benefit crackdown? James Heale speaks to Isabel Hardman and Katy Balls. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 19 March 2025

This afternoon we had Liz Kendall’s long-awaited address in the Commons on Labour’s plans for welfare reform. The prospect of £5 billion worth of cuts to welfare has split the party in two, with fears of a rebellion growing over the weekend and into this week. Her announcement was a mixed bag, including: restricting eligibility for the Personal Independence Payment (PIP) so that only those who have the highest level of disability can claim the benefit and – to sweeten the deal for backbenchers – announcing that the government will not bring in vouchers for disability benefit or freeze PIP. One of the new lines that had not been trailed in advance was that under 22s would not be eligible for the health top-up of Universal Credit (UC). What’s the politics of all this? Will Labour MPs stomach Liz Kendall’s benefits crackdown? Katy Balls speaks to The Spectator's new economics editor Michael Simmons and Stephen Bush, associate editor at the Financial Times. Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Cindy Yu.

Transcribed - Published: 18 March 2025

Bridget Phillipson's schools bill is back in the Commons today. The scope of the legislation is twofold: firstly, looking at the welfare of children in schools and secondly at fundamentally changing the landscape of secondary education by doing away with academies (and with it the legacy of the previous Conservative government on education). The plan has been read by many – including former head of Ofsted Amanda Spielman, who joins today's podcast – as Labour pandering to the unions and perhaps even prioritising the adults (union members) over the children. Amendments to the bill will be debated this afternoon, including a Tory amendment that would ban phones in schools, although it doesn't seem that Labour is in the mood to make any concessions. What is motivating Labour? What's the vision of change here? James Heale speaks to Michael Gove and Amanda Spielman. Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.

Transcribed - Published: 17 March 2025

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows. NHS England will be demolished as Labour make sweeping changes to the NHS, and cuts are coming to welfare too, with Health Secretary Streeting saying mental health disorders are 'over-diagnosed'. Plus, Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott wants phones banned from all schools, and Finland President Alexander Stubb says Putin does not want a ceasefire.

Transcribed - Published: 16 March 2025

Slashing the winter fuel allowance, maintaining the two child benefit cap, cutting international aid, cutting the civil service, axing NHS bureaucracy, possibly slashing welfare expenditure... you'd be forgiven for thinking the Conservatives were in power. But no, these are all policies pursued by the current Labour government. So on today's Saturday Shots Cindy Yu asks Michael Gove and James Heale, is Keir Starmer a Tory? While Michael admits to giving Starmer a 'painful' two cheers, he does say there is historic precedent for Labour government enacting right-leaning measures: from Jim Callaghan's migration policies to the economic ones of Ramsay MacDonald. How has Starmer got away with it? And what does his premiership of pragmatism tell us about the future direction of Labour? Michael sets out a number of tests to judge Starmer's success by: the tests of Fraser Nelson, Robert Jenrick, Ernie Bevan, Denis Healey and Bob Mellish...  Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Cindy Yu.

Transcribed - Published: 15 March 2025

New figures from the Office for National Statistics show the UK economy unexpectedly shrunk by 0.1% in January. This comes only a few weeks after the Chancellor's pro-growth speech, and a fortnight ahead of her Spring Statement. Just how much pressure is Rachel Reeves under? And how likely is it that Labour will change their approach? Economics editor Michael Simmons and deputy political editor James Heale join Patrick Gibbons to discuss, as well as a look ahead to next week's expected announcement on reducing the welfare bill. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcribed - Published: 14 March 2025

It was widely briefed that the main focus of Sir Keir Starmer’s speech in Yorkshire today was his plan to do away with Whitehall red tape. What was kept under wraps was the Prime Minister’s plans for the NHS – specifically to scrap NHS England. In a bid to tackle bureaucracy in the health service, the PM this morning told reporters that the ‘arms-length NHS’ needed to go – adding that the move will ‘shift money to the front line’ and free the health service to ‘focus on patients’. What's the point of abolishing NHS England? And are Labour 'doing the things that the Tories only dreamed of'?  Lucy Dunn speaks James Heale and Michael Gove.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy. 

Transcribed - Published: 13 March 2025

Nicola Sturgeon has announced her intention to step down at the next Scottish Parliament election in May 2026. One of the original MSPs elected to Holyrood in 1999, Sturgeon has dominated Scottish and UK politics over the past two decades. The Salmond-Sturgeon era began in 2004 and she went on to serve as First Minister for the best part of a decade. Stewart McDonald, former SNP MP for Glasgow South 2015-24, and Lucy Dunn join James Heale on this special Coffee House Scots to discuss Sturgeon's legacy. She brought Scotland the closest to independence for 300 years, yet resigned in 2023 under a cloud over party management. Attention turns to next year's election, could the SNP's winning streak continue without her? Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Natasha Feroze. 

Transcribed - Published: 12 March 2025

Last night there was a huge breakthrough in Ukraine peace talks, with Zelensky accepting a US proposal for a ceasefire and placing ‘the ball in Putin’s court’, according to Marco Rubio. While getting Zelensky to accept is a huge diplomatic win, the proposal hinges on Putin agree to the terms of the ceasefire – which will last for 30 days but can be extended by mutual agreement. ‘I’ll talk to Vladimir Putin. It takes two to tango,’ said Donald Trump. Can Putin afford to reject the deal? And could this be the basis for a lasting peace? Meanwhile, Keir Starmer has been getting a lot of credit for his role in the Ukraine peace process and the perception that he has stepped up to meet the crisis. How instrumental was the UK in bringing about the ceasefire, or is this Trump’s deal? And how does the news that the UK won’t get an exemption from the president’s 25 per cent tariffs on steel undermine the US–UK relationship? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Mark Galeotti, head of the Mayak Intelligence consultancy. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 12 March 2025

There is a row on the horizon over welfare cuts. Yesterday’s meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) was packed, with many lobby journalists expecting fireworks. The Prime Minister got a positive reaction for his message on Ukraine, with MPs impressed by his strong response since Trump took office, but there was some scepticism in the room about his plan to make £6 billion in welfare cuts. This is a difficult topic that cuts to the heart of the Labour Party and its position as the party of welfare – about 80 Labour MPs are said to oppose the government’s proposals. Can Keir Starmer weather the storm? James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and John McTernan, former political adviser to Tony Blair. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 11 March 2025

Loyal listeners will remember that just three months ago we released a podcast asking: Is 2025 Farage’s year? The answer was ‘yes’, provided Reform UK can keep their five MPs in line...  As predicted – and despite all the talk of professionalisation – Nigel Farage’s latest political outfit is following the pattern of the parties that came before: infighting. On Friday night, the Reform party stripped Rupert Lowe of the whip after referring him to the police. Lowe stands accused of workplace bullying and threatening behaviour towards party chair Zia Yusuf. These are allegations that he strongly denies, calling the whole affair a ‘witch hunt’. How long has there been tension between Lowe and the party leadership? Can Reform recover from losing 20 per cent of their presence in the Commons? James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Gawain Towler, former head of communications for Reform. Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.

Transcribed - Published: 10 March 2025

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows. Pat McFadden addresses Starmer's 'coalition of the willing', and incoming reforms at Whitehall, somewhat elusively. Richard Tice defends the timing of Reform MP Rupert Lowe's suspension, and Chris Philp speaks about the Tories' suggestion to ignore the Human Rights Act when judges make decisions on immigration. Meanwhile, the Latvian President argues that other European nations should be considering conscription.

Transcribed - Published: 9 March 2025

It’s a special (and emotional) edition of Coffee House Shots this Saturday because it is the last with Kate Andrews on this side of the Atlantic. She joins our editor Michael Gove and political correspondent James Heale for a debate on ideology. Kate – a liberal, in the classical British sense – explains exactly why she is not a Conservative and the various tenets that distinguish liberalism from conservatism, whilst Michael makes the case for being a 'pessimistic' conservative.  So, what makes a liberal? What makes a conservative? And was Hayek right in saying that while there isn’t much to choose between these two political creeds, ultimately, they need each other.  Produced by Cindy Yu and Oscar Edmondson. Kate Andrews' suggested reading on liberalism: F. A. Hayek: The Road to Serfdom  Adam Smith: The Wealth of Nations Deirdre McCloskey: Why Liberalism Works

Transcribed - Published: 8 March 2025

Trump has been stealing the headlines when it comes to Ukraine this week, but Europe – and whether it can stay united in the face of the US pulling its support – remains an important subplot. At a summit yesterday, 27 countries backed the plan to increase spending on defence, but when will the cracks start to show? Thankfully, it seems that the Prime Minister is good in a crisis. Back at home, he has seen a modest bounce in popularity and he is making a good impression in Brussels, coming across as assured without grandstanding. He has also been leading on defence spending – could defence be the way in for Starmer to renegotiate a new position within the EU? Is Starmer having a good crisis?  Katy Balls speaks to James Heale and Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Transcribed - Published: 7 March 2025