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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Are We Smarter Than The Betting Markets?

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

Politics, News

4.620.5K Ratings

🗓️ 9 May 2024

⏱️ 30 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of emotion and narratives? Unfortunately we don’t have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast we put that wisdom to the test with a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold.” We look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of everything from former President Donald Trump picking South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as his running mate to Democrats winning a Senate race in Ohio, and decide whether the odds are appropriately priced. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

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Until 18-plus, T's and C's apply, exchange fees and fair usage limits supply.

0:30.0

Can I submit a request for a rebrand of this segment? I've tried good luck

0:37.3

Elliot. I wish you more luck than I am. I mean you can submit whatever you like. I would like for it to be rebranded as,

0:44.2

are you smarter than a Scottish teenager? Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics Podcast, I'm Galen Druk.

1:02.0

How does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election six months out

1:06.2

compare with how we're thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are elections

1:11.8

watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly

1:16.1

produce a lot of emotion and narrative? Unfortunately, we don't have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so there's no better way to test that

1:25.3

than a game of buy-sell hold. We're going to look at where the bedding markets placed the likelihood of everything

1:31.9

from Trump picking Christy Nome as his running mate

1:34.6

to Democrats winning a Senate race in Ohio and will decide whether the odds are

1:39.6

appropriately priced. We're also going to check in on the results of a contentious

1:43.7

set of primaries in Indiana earlier in the week and here with me to do all of that is

1:47.8

politics reporter Kaylee Rogers. Welcome to the podcast Kaylee.

1:50.3

Hi good morning. Also here with us is Director of Data Analytics.

1:54.0

Elliot welcome Elliot. Hey Galen. And also here with us is Senior Elections

1:58.5

analyst Nathaniel Rakeach. Welcome to Nathaniel. Good morning,

...

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