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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Can Biden Hold On?

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

Politics, News

4.620.5K Ratings

🗓️ 8 July 2024

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

As the Senate returns to Washington for the first time since President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the president appears to be digging in his heels. In a letter to Democratic lawmakers sent Monday morning, Biden was adamant that he is staying in the presidential race. But it does not seem like the interested parties are taking Biden’s insistence as the final word on the issue. With just six weeks until the Democratic National Convention, how does this all end? And following landmark elections in Britain and France, we travel across the pond for an international edition of “good or bad use of polling.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

I used to work for a travel guide. Oh that's right. That's right. Yeah.

0:05.0

Nif they know, how does it feel to have had the best journalism job in the world, which is travel journalism,

0:11.0

and to have ended up somewhere near the bottom of the pack covering just some of the most brutal elections.

0:17.5

Don't worry, after this election, it's going back to travel writing. Hello and welcome to the five thirty-eight politics38 politics podcast I'm Gailin Druk and by this time next week we're

0:38.0

going to have a lot more information about the contours of the 2024 presidential election.

0:44.0

For one, former President Trump's campaign says that we will know who Trump's running mate

0:48.9

will be by next Monday.

0:51.9

But also, lawmakers are returning to Washington this week after

0:55.8

their 4th of July break and senators will be meeting for the first time since

0:59.8

that debate that changed everything. Calls for Biden to step down from lawmakers, donors, and voters, if you look at the polls,

1:06.4

have continued since we last checked in on Wednesday,

1:09.4

but Biden has said in interviews and on the stump that he will not get out and he sent a letter to

1:15.0

Democratic lawmakers this morning saying as much.

1:17.8

He's also pointing to a NATO conference in Washington this week as another opportunity

1:21.6

to judge his fitness for a second term.

1:24.5

It does not seem like the interested parties have taken Biden's insistence as the final word.

1:31.0

At least not yet. So how messy will things get and how will it all end.

1:37.0

And we've got a good or bad use of polling example for you. It's based on the British

1:41.0

and French elections in which left-wing parties did notably well.

1:45.3

In Britain, it was an expected victory for labor with the worst performance for conservatives

1:50.4

in the history of the party. And in France, it was an upset in which an alliance of left-wing parties won the most seats of any party,

1:58.0

with McCrone Centrus coming in second,

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