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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Harris Resets The Race For Latino Voters

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

Politics, News

4.620.5K Ratings

🗓️ 15 August 2024

⏱️ 35 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

One of the most promising electoral trends for Republicans during the Trump era has been a shift among Latino voters toward Republicans. The eight percentage point swing from Clinton in 2016 to Trump in 2020 represented the largest shift of any racial or ethnic group in either direction. And the erosion of support for Democrats didn’t stop there. In a poll of Latino voters in battleground states from the research group Equis in May, Biden was leading Trump among Latinos by only 5 percentage points. But Biden is no longer in the race, so do any of these trends still apply? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with co-founder of Equis Research Carlos Odio about the new trends among Latino voters now that Harris is at the top of the ticket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

This summer has not been very kind to glasses-wears with all the humidity and rain.

0:05.6

It's going to end up being like that Jordan Peel meme.

0:09.5

Like the sweats just pouring down.

0:11.4

She's going to be like sweating

0:12.8

sweating bullets as we go.

0:15.0

It's because I'm Gailen Trook.

0:29.6

One of the most promising electoral trends for Republicans during the Trump era has been a shift amongst

0:36.1

Latino voters towards Republicans.

0:39.1

The 8 percentage point swing from Clinton in 2016 to Trump in 2020 represented the largest

0:45.7

shift of any racial or ethnic group in either direction though Biden still

0:50.5

won the group by roughly 30 percentage points overall.

0:54.0

But the erosion of support for Democrats didn't stop there.

0:57.8

In a poll of Latino voters in battleground states

1:00.3

from the research group Ekckies in May,

1:02.6

Biden was leading Trump amongst Latino voters

1:05.5

by only five percentage points.

1:08.1

And poll after poll showed Biden's biggest drops

1:11.0

in support since taking office to be amongst Latinos and young people.

1:15.0

Well, Biden is no longer in the race and so many of the trends that we've covered

1:21.0

from the past three and a half years may or may not be

1:24.4

relevant in this new dynamic a dynamic in which as of today Harris leads Trump by

1:29.7

almost three percentage points in our national polling average. So where do Latino voters stand today?

...

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