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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Is Trump Losing His Electoral College Advantage?

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

Politics, News

4.620.5K Ratings

🗓️ 23 September 2024

⏱️ 38 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

As early voting kicks off in states across the country, the crew dives into an intensifying election season on this week’s installment of the 538 Politics podcast. They discuss whether early voting data can offer clues about November's outcome, analyze conflicting polls from key battleground states and examine the potential for a shift in the GOP’s Electoral College advantage. Plus, the team previews 538’s new Senate polling averages, focusing on the races that could determine control of the chamber. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Wake up, geniuses! I'm giving you the truth. It's a trap. You need to get away from your desk.

0:07.0

Run, jump, roll escape. Whatever, I don't care. move for your mind.

0:16.0

Essex, sound mind, sound body.

0:20.0

She had a lot to cover. A lot to cover.

0:24.0

I think the early voting segment might be shorter than...

0:27.0

than we imagine.

0:29.0

I have a sneaking suspicion Mary and I are going to be in agreement on this. Hello and

0:42.8

538 politics podcast I'm Gailin Truc and in some ways the election is already upon us.

0:49.6

Last Friday early in-person voting began in Virginia, and Minnesota and South Dakota began accepting

0:56.1

absentee ballots in-person as well.

0:59.0

As more states begin voting, we're going to get data about who is casting ballots and some might use that as an

1:05.4

indicator of who will win the election but is that a good or bad use of poll

1:10.6

data we're glad you asked we're going to get into it. Also with six

1:14.9

weeks left on the clock we've been getting firehosed with new polling and

1:19.1

frankly some conflicting polling as well. Last week a New York Times

1:23.2

stand at college poll showed the race tied nationally and at the same time

1:27.1

showed Harris leading by four points in Pennsylvania. This weekend

1:31.0

Harris got one of her best recent national polls, a five-point lead, according to NBC, and then Monday morning, the New York Times showed Trump up by between three and five points across the Sunbelt.

1:43.2

Dizzy yet, don't worry, we will make it make sense.

1:46.8

And yes, we are also going to talk about what Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson's

1:52.1

alleged nasty online behavior means for the race in North Carolina.

1:56.5

And if that wasn't enough, we are also launching our Senate polling averages this week.

...

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