Lots More on Why Neil Dutta Is Sticking With His Recession Call

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

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4.4 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 11 April 2025

⏱️ 14 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On Wednesday, President Trump put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for every country except China. The market, which had been in a state of deep panic, surged massively on the announcement. But then on Thursday, stocks sold off hard again as people woke up to the reality of massive tariffs on China and the new baseline tariffs on everyone else. Plus, even before all this tariff drama, there were plenty of reasons to be anxious about the US economy. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research. He explains all the moving parts and why he's sticking with his call for a downturn this year.

Mentioned on the show:
Neil Dutta Sees Rising Risks to the Labor Market
Everything You Need to Know About the Basis Trade Spooking Markets

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Transcript

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0:00.0	KPMG makes the difference by creating value, like developing strategic insights that help drive M&A success, or embedding AI solutions into your business to sustain competitive advantage.
0:13.4	KPMG, make the difference. Learn more at www.kpmg.us slash insights.
0:22.2	Is this a negotiation or the new rules at a game?
0:24.8	It could be either.
0:25.8	It is up to the president how he wants to negotiate.
0:28.7	A deal is going to be made with China.
0:30.4	Nothing's over yet.
0:31.4	There's been a lot of confusion up to now.
0:33.2	A 90-day pause is not an eradication.
0:35.8	Where is this leading to?
0:37.0	Trust Bloomberg Television for all the context and clarity you need as the tariff and global economy story evolves.
0:43.5	This year's bear case, very quickly, becoming the base case.
0:46.7	Nobody covers tariffs like Bloomberg Television.
0:50.0	Context changes everything.
0:54.8	Bloomberg Audio Studios.
0:57.3	Podcasts, radio, news.
0:59.8	What do you think?
1:00.3	Recession or no recession?
1:02.2	I mean, you had a really good piece out this week in the newsletter where you made the point,
1:12.8	and I had made a similar point the day earlier,
1:18.6	so maybe I'm not being so nice, but like how much of all the market action, all the economic action, I guess, was actually dependent on just one guy, Donald Trump.
1:23.1	And that, you know, if he came out and said something, he could end the chaos at any moment in time.
	...

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