Odd Lots

When stocks are plunging in a typical market environment, people reach for safe haven assets like US Treasuries. But we've seen that phenomenon break down more and more. It broke down in a sustained way during the intense inflation of 2022. And it's been breaking down again, in an acute way, since President Trump's so-called "Liberation Day." On the night of April 8 and early morning of April 9, we saw a major spike in yields. As Trump put it, the bond market was getting the "yips." But what was actually going on? Who was selling? And why? And what have we learned more broadly about technical and economic demand for US government debt? On this episode, we talked to Ira Jersey, the chief US interest rate strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, for a crash course in what drives the bond market in both the short and long terms. Read more: The Bond Investors Who Got Trump to Pause His Tariffs US Bonds Rally as Fed’s Hammack Revives Odds of a June Rate Cut Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 28 April 2025

Over the last few years, retail traders have gotten into options in a major way. Selling puts, buying calls, trading volatility — what used to be the domain of niche experts engaged in practical hedging has exploded into the public sphere. And there was a lot of easy money during a time when every dip was bought, and stocks mostly just went up. But what have we seen in recent weeks, with the extraordinary trading since April 2? On this episode we bring back one of our favorite guests, Benn Eifert of QVR Advisors. He describes what's been going on in the markets, and why a lot of social media "volfluencers" have suddenly gotten very quiet. Mentioned on this episode: Matt Levine on MicroStrategy’s Infinite Money Machine Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 26 April 2025

If you look at most of the official hard data right now, there still isn't much evidence of a sharp downturn. Sure, all the surveys are abysmal, but the actual measures of economic activity are ok. But there is already data showing something severe is happening, and that can be seen in the volume of cargo flowing from China to the US. Of course, this is intentional. This is the whole point of tariffs. But the fear is that this is going to be acute and dramatic to consumer companies, and that it will happen very soon. On this episode of the podcast we speak with Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics, who walks us through the real life and macro-economic impact of what we've already seen. She says that the tariffs hit right at the moment that major retailers are planning for their holiday merchandise, and that before too long we'll start seeing fewer goods and fewer varieties of all kinds of things. We also discuss the inflation dynamics, and how tariffs may not show up in terms of higher CPI, but instead through higher layoffs, compressed profit margins, and falling real wages. Read More: The Jaws That Could Devour Your Profit Margins Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 25 April 2025

For the most part, Americans haven't felt much pain yet from the tariffs that Donald Trump introduced (and then partially walked back) on April 2. The damage is highly visible in financial markets, but for the moment, shelves remain stocked, inflation measures have remained muted, and there hasn't been a significant wave of layoffs in official data. But according to our guest, real pain is coming. And what's going down is worse than a trade war. On this episode, we speak with the one and only David Woo, now the founder of David Woo Unbound. He also previously served as the Head of Global Rates, Foreign Exchange, and EM Fixed Income and Economics Research at Bank of America. He says that the administration has absolutely nothing to show for its initial months in office on any front. And he says this isn't a game of chicken, where one side can blink and avoid disaster. Instead, we're seeing a "war of attrition" where damage is being done to both the US and Chinese economies as we speak. As he sees it, the China hawks in the administration have been in control, and have the impulse to obliterate the Chinese economy, which makes the situation more than just a so-called trade war. He discusses the political, market, and real economy implications of this dramatic escalation. Read more: Trump U-Turns on Powell, China Follow Dire Economic Warnings A Bad Peace in Ukraine Carries Global Risks Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 24 April 2025

When it comes to measuring economic pain, the cost of a humble breakfast sandwich might not be top of mind. But Bloomberg has an index that tracks the rising cost of a bacon, egg and cheese sandwich, plus a cup of coffee. And this year, it’s reached record highs.On today’s Big Take podcast, we hear from people up and down the BEC supply chain — from a wheat farmer to a coffee roaster to a guy who turned his life-long love of eggs into a career. What does the most important meal of the day tell us about inflation, supply and demand, and the complexities of financial markets? More importantly: how did this sandwich get so expensive? Like this episode? Listen and Subscribe to the Big Take podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 23 April 2025

One of the stated goals for the current trade war is to build more industrial capacity in the United States. So far there doesn't seem to be much of it happening. In fact, all of the manufacturing surveys (and all evidence) so far suggests the reverse. But not that long ago there was a concerted effort to build more factories in the United States. Under President Biden there was a whole host of new industrial announcements funded in part via the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. But did we get anything from these bills? Do we have anything to show for it? Why is building more capacity in the United States so difficult? On this episode, we spoke with Hassan Khan, who recently left his position as the director of economic security in the CHIPS Program Office at the Department of Commerce, about what he learned, what he saw, what could be done differently, and what the results are actually were. Read more: With US Chips Act Money Mostly Divvied Up, the Real Test Begins TSMC’s Arizona Chip Production Yields Surpass Taiwan’s US Chip Grants in Limbo as Lutnick Pushes Bigger Investments Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 23 April 2025

Martin Wolf has been called one of the world's most important economics commentators, and has for decades written in columns and his own books about the evolution of the global economy, chronicling the rise of globalization and the subsequent pushback to liberal trade. And he's had a lot to write about in recent weeks. President Trump's unveiling of sweeping tariffs against pretty much every single US trading partner has not only roiled global markets, but is shaking up international politics as well. Countries around the world are now struggling to understand exactly what the Trump administration is trying to achieve, how far it will go in terms of its political and economic isolationism, and how they should we respond. On this episode we speak with Wolf, the chief economics commentator for the Financial Times, about what Trump's reordering of global trade means for the world, how Europe and China might respond, and the origins of the US administration's economic discontent. Read More:  Trump’s Tariffs and China Collide to Shock the $115 Trillion Global Economy What’s Left of Globalization Without the US? Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 21 April 2025

Here's Why is Bloomberg’s short explainer podcast, where we take one big news story and break it down in just a few minutes—with help from our experts across the newsroom. We're dropping into your feed with a special episode featuring Joe Weisenthal, co-host of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast, who joined us while in London. In this episode: The near-daily shifts in U.S. trade policy have rattled markets and made both businesses and consumers uneasy about spending. What kind of damage does all this uncertainty cause to the economy? And is it something we’ll eventually get used to? Joe joins Stephen Carroll to break it all down. Like what you hear? Subscribe to the Here’s Why podcast for more quick, expert-driven explainers available via the links below every Friday.  Apple Podcasts Spotify TuneIn iHeart RSS feed See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 20 April 2025

Last year, it was announced that the US Department of Defense had failed an audit for its seventh straight year, indicating an ongoing inability to track its hundreds of billions of dollars in spending and inventories. Why does this keep happening? Why does the Pentagon get audited in the first place? And what can be done to fix it? On this episode, we speak with Julia Gledhill, a research analyst at the National Security Reform Program at the Stimson Center. She explains how the budgetary process works, as well as the prospects for the Pentagon ever actually passing an audit. Read more: Pentagon Still Falls Short on Jump-Starting Innovation, Audit Says Billionaire Feinberg Says Pentagon Needs an Investor’s Savvy Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 19 April 2025

US Treasuries are the most important market in the world. With some $29 trillion outstanding, they create the benchmark that informs basically every other type of borrowing. Any changes to how the bond market works would be a massive deal. But lately, there's been a lot of chatter about how the Trump administration could radically restructure and refinance the US debt under the so-called "Mar-a-Lago Accord." In this episode, we speak with University of Virginia law professor Mitu Gulati about how far the administration could go to legally reform this huge and important market. We also talk about how to buy Greenland and whether Trump could make a few billion by collecting on some old loans from allies. Read more: One Way for Trump to Find a Few Extra Trillion Dollars The Stories We Tell Ourselves About Bonds Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 18 April 2025

For years and years now, there has been one winning trade: Go long the US versus the rest of the world. Thanks to tech dynamism and general pro-growth US macro policies, American assets have far outstripped their global peers. Of course, there have been some bumps along the way, but they've usually been global bumps. The financial crisis in 2008-2009 was global. Covid was a shock for the entire world. But with Trump's tariffs, we are now looking at a story that has the potential to be US-specific, even if a trade war will be felt internationally. And so investors are asking the question of whether US exceptionalism has come to an end, and there may be better opportunities elsewhere. On this episode we speak with Ozan Tarman, vice chair of global macro at Deutsche Bank. He tells us what his clients are thinking about and the various scenarios whereby US assets continue to underperform. We also discuss the implications of the US becoming more EM-like in its politics, and its financial markets. Read More: End of 'America First' Trade Is Boosting Europe's Markets The World Is Finding a Plausible Alternative to Treasuries Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 17 April 2025

Every time there is tension between the US and China, there are stories about China threatening to withhold exports of rare earth metals, which are supposedly crucial for all kinds of advanced technologies. In this episode, recorded in Bloomberg's London studio, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas helps us clear up some misconceptions about them. For one thing, rare earths aren't actually that rare. Furthermore, the amount of global trade of these minerals is fairly minuscule. The US only imports $170 million worth in a year. And then beyond that, the most common usage of them is in vacuum cleaners. Still, their economics are interesting and they do have some important applications. In addition, we talk about what the trade war means for the domestic US energy agenda, and the Trump administration's desire to expand total output. Read more: Chinese Rare Earth Shipments Held Up as Trade War Upends Exports Javier Blas: $50-a-Barrel Oil Is a Problem for US Trade Deficit Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 15 April 2025

Everybody loves chicken. And, it turns out, that this humble bird can tell us quite a lot about the way the world works. In this three-part series, the Odd Lots team is exploring some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy, through the medium of chicken. In this first episode, we’re looking at chicken from the consumer side. Why do we love it so much? What goes into the price of something like a hot wing or an egg? And what can chicken tell us about the way we think of inflation? We speak with prominent economists, analysts, CEOs, and even a chicken sandwich war correspondent, to discuss. It’s time for Squawk Lots!    Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Published: 14 April 2025

The Odd Lots team is analyzing the US economy through the lens of chicken. In this second episode of our special three-part series, we look at the birds themselves and the people who farm them. Because the way we actually get chicken has changed a lot over the years, with the industry evolving from backyard birds to huge poultry companies that outsource chicken growing to independent contractors. Farmers often say they are taking on most of the risk of raising chicks, while the big poultry companies get most of the upside. And this model of farming is becoming more popular in other agricultural areas too. So what does the way chickens are produced say about the labor market, the way it’s structured, and the distribution of risk and profits? We speak with chicken growers, agricultural experts, and more.  This episode was updated on November 19th, 2024 to reflect a clarification —it wasn’t until 2013 that Craig Watts sent a film of his barns to his production manager. In 2014 is when he partnered with a human rights activist to produce that exposé on chicken farming. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Published: 14 April 2025

In the final episode of our special three-part series exploring the US economy through the chicken industry, we’re taking a look at market competition. Chicken in the US is dominated by a handful of huge poultry processors. But new technologies,  like algorithmic pricing, are also leading to accusations of anticompetitive corporate behavior that can potentially create bad outcomes for both consumers and workers. We’re using poultry to trace the evolution of America’s approach to antitrust and learning what’s different now. You’ll hear from senior officials at the Department of Justice about how concentration in chicken and elsewhere is impacting the economy, and what can be done to fix it.    Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Published: 14 April 2025

One of the ironies of the tariffs is that, while ostensibly the goal is to reshore US manufacturing, it's actually been US makers of physical goods themselves that have warned about the damage that trade barriers can cause. Or, to put it another way, if we really want to see more domestic US production in order to decouple from China, then perhaps there are other levers to pull besides the tariffs. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Sam D'Amico, the founder and CEO of California-based Impulse Labs, which makes an amazing induction oven. We talk about what the tariffs mean for his business, and the various things, including capital markets and NIMBYism, that really stand as impediments to building out mass US production of goods. Read more: The High-Tech Stove That’s Also a Home Battery Everything You Need to Know About the Basis Trade Spooking Markets Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 14 April 2025

Check out the new Stock Movers Podcast from Bloomberg. Subscribe for five-minute episodes on today's winners and losers in the stock market. Listen on Apple: https://apple.co/4kJ43ON Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/mr385jv6 Listen on other platforms: https://link.podtrac.com/h0zn7xirSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 13 April 2025

In a big bull market, people will overlook a lot. They'll suspend their disbelief. They'll buy into fantastical, unrealistic stories about the future. But when the momentum turns sharply the other way, all of this reverses. Then, as the cliché goes, you see who's been "swimming naked." So what have we learned from the recent market volatility? On this episode, we speak with legendary short-seller Jim Chanos, now the founder of Chanos & Co. We talk about cloud stocks and datacenters, AI, private equity, the Trump tariffs, and the strong evidence that Elon Musk isn't serious about tackling spending. Read more: Everything You Need to Know About the Basis Trade Spooking Markets Jim Chanos Says Biggest Risk for Markets Is DeepSeek-Like Event Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 12 April 2025

On Wednesday, President Trump put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for every country except China. The market, which had been in a state of deep panic, surged massively on the announcement. But then on Thursday, stocks sold off hard again as people woke up to the reality of massive tariffs on China and the new baseline tariffs on everyone else. Plus, even before all this tariff drama, there were plenty of reasons to be anxious about the US economy. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research. He explains all the moving parts and why he's sticking with his call for a downturn this year. Mentioned on the show: Neil Dutta Sees Rising Risks to the Labor Market Everything You Need to Know About the Basis Trade Spooking Markets Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 11 April 2025

On Wednesday, Trump pulled back from the brink on most of the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2. The market surged. But we're still in an extraordinarily challenging moment. We have new across-the-board tariffs. We have gigantic tariffs on China. And there's a possibility that a recession has already begun. So what does the Fed do in this environment, with so much persistent uncertainty? On this episode, we speak with Rob Kaplan, former President of the Dallas Fed, and now the Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs. We talk about the extreme uncertainty, the unusual behavior in the market, and what this all means for the energy sector. Read more: Fed Officials Worried Over Stagflation Risk Ahead of Tariffs Wall Street Chatter Grows That Fed May Act If Bond Rout Worsens Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 10 April 2025

How should we make sense of the Trump tariffs? They've been terrible for the stock market, obviously. Small businesses seem to hate them. Energy companies aren't fans either. US manufacturers are talking about how the tariffs will make manufacturing harder. And yet we have them. So who stands to benefit? What's the point? And how should we understand this moment in American history? On this episode we speak with one of our favorite guests, Viktor Shvets, the head of global desk strategy at Macquarie Capital. Shvets has been warning for a long time about how US history is at a pivot point, with the neoliberal consensus coming to an end. He talks about Trump's revolutionary efforts to remake American society, the attendant shredding of norms, and what it all means for the globally-held view of American exceptionalism. Read More: Viktor Shvets on Why This Time Really Is Different Things Are Getting Pretty Weird in Markets  Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 9 April 2025

Amidst Trump's dramatic tariff moves, trade in North America remains uncertain. The USMCA hasn't been completely ripped up, but the region is anxiously anticipating a new trade regime. As such, shippers and carriers dealing with North American freight are in a state of limbo, waiting to see how it all shakes out. In this episode, we speak with experienced freight broker Matt Silver, now the CEO of Cargado, a company that sells logistics software to businesses dealing with US-Mexico trade. We talk about the strategies being used right now, what's changing, what truckers are doing, and how all players may adapt to the new reality. Read more: Canada and Mexico, Early Trump Targets, Dodge the Worst of New Tariff Salvo The Freight Recession Isn't Going Anywhere Now Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 8 April 2025

It was just last Wednesday that President Trump announced his new tariff schedule with the rest of the world. And it's already having an effect. Companies are scrambling to get goods on planes or boats to beat the first deadline. Companies are already trying to get out of existing contracts. And some previously planned factory endeavors have even been put on hold. On this episode, we speak with Ryan Petersen, the founder and CEO of Flexport, to talk about what he's already seeing from the perspective of his business. We also talk about how tariffs are operationally implemented, and how things might change if the existing tariffs remain in place. Read More:  Tariffs Are Dragging Down Even Companies Without US Exports Jeep Maker Stellantis Offers to Help Suppliers Pay Tariff Costs Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 7 April 2025

Anything crypto-related is frequently greeted with a high degree of skepticism. Within that, one of the most controversial companies for a long time has been Tether, the company behind the popular stablecoin USDT. But despite people predicting otherwise, the company has boomed. It's insanely profitable. It's one of the largest holders of US Treasuries in the world. And because of the change in the US administration, it's gathering fans in Washington, DC. In this episode, we speak with Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino about what it's like to run this business, how they work with law enforcement, future growth opportunities, and why, after all these years, it's still never had a formal audit. Read more: What Are Stablecoins and Why Are Regulators Wary? Tether To Buy a 30% Stake in Italian Media Company Be Water Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 7 April 2025

He needs no introduction: When trade is in the news, we speak with Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations. Brad has been talking for awhile about the major imbalances of world trade, and the US-China relationship in particular. However, rather than building up a large trading bloc with our allies to counter Chinese influence, the Trump administration has chosen a path of going it alone, targeting friend and foe alike with large and wide-ranging tariffs. In this episode, we talk about the significance of the move, the potential damage, and what, if any, positive scenarios could result. Read More: Global Recession Fears Engulf Wall Street on Tariff Retaliation Matt Levine: The Tariffs Have Some Math Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 5 April 2025

On Wednesday, President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs against almost every country in the world. The size and scope was far beyond what anyone was anticipating, causing markets to subsequently plunge. But what's next? Could it work out for the US? Will we see a spike in inflation? Will the global trading system continue to operate? On this episode, we speak with Tom Orlik, the chief economist for Bloomberg Economics, on the historical nature of this stagflationary shock, and what happens to the US and global economies if these numbers remain in place. Read More: Economists Slash US Growth, Boost Inflation Forecasts on Tariffs Germany and France Push for More Aggressive Tariff Response Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 4 April 2025

The 2008 financial crisis is fading into history, but the risks of something big happening again remain. In this episode, we speak with Tim Geithner, the former US Treasury secretary and head of the New York Fed during the tumultuous collapse of Lehman Brothers. The conversation coincides with the launch of Yale's New Bagehot Project, which is aimed at guiding the next generation of financial crisis-fighters (Geithner is Chair of the program on financial stability at the Yale University School of Management). We talk about what's most important when it comes to putting out financial fires, and what could have been done differently during 2008. And of course, we also talk current risks in the financial system. Read more: US Debt Load Tops Fed’s Survey of Financial Stability Risks Fiscal Debt Binge Is World’s Biggest Stability Threat, BIS Says Subprime Collapse to Global Financial Meltdown: Timeline Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 3 April 2025

Last month, Donald Trump fired the Federal Trade Commission's two Democratic commissioners. They have since filed suit, arguing that the law that created the FTC — as well as a 90-year-old Supreme Court precedent — prevent the president from firing them without cause. And now, what might seem like a niche legal dispute could end up having much bigger consequences for other independent government agencies, including the Federal Reserve. That would be a huge shock for Wall Street, which tends to value central bank independence. In this episode, we speak with Lev Menand, professor at Columbia Law School and author of The Fed Unbound, to talk about the huge stakes involved in this case. Read More: Trump and the Fed Are on a Collision Course Who Will Protect the Fed’s Independence? The Markets Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 1 April 2025

Legendary media mogul Nick Denton, the founder of Gawker, is done with the US. He’s leaving New York City for good, and moving with his family to the Buda Hills near Budapest. And when it comes to his stock portfolio, he’s done with the US as well. On this episode of the podcast, he tells us why he’s bullish on China, and says that the fall of Elon Musk may be the biggest business story in the entire world. We also talk about the end of the Atlanticist dream, why European elites are turning so sharply against the US, and his investment approach. Read more: BYD Sales Top Tesla as Tech Focus Wins Over Chinese Drivers Xiaomi Plans to Expand Beijing EV Factory to Meet Surging Demand Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 31 March 2025

One of the biggest questions hanging over the market right now is whether or not the seemingly unlimited appetite for more AI data center spending is slowing down or not. This type of tech infrastructure has been a massive sectoral winner over the last few years. But of course, this isn't the first time investors have gotten excited about this type of trade. The late 1990s and early 2000s are often remembered as being the time of a "tech bubble" or "dot-com bubble," but one specific aspect was the buildout in broadband infrastructure, or what became known as the telecom bubble. So what was that all about? Why were investors so optimistic? And how did it end? At our recent live episode in Washington DC, we spoke with Blair Levin, policy adviser to New Street Research. He was the chief of staff at the FCC during the telecom deregulation of the 1990s, and in the early 2000s went to work on Wall Street. He tells us about differences and similarities between then and now, plus the signs of when the ride is coming to an end. Read More: What It Felt Like When Everyone Was Hopeful, Happy, and Rich Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 28 March 2025

Brad Jacobs has made a fortune in his career buying and building big logistics companies, like United Rentals, Waste Management, XPO (trucking company), GXO (warehouses), and RXO (freight brokerage). His current venture is QXO, which raised billions of dollars in order to enter the building supply industry. After a long search and a couple months of battling with the executive team, QXO announced last week that it would be acquiring publicly traded roofing supply company Beacon Roofing for $11 billion. So why expand into roofing supply? And why Beacon specifically? We sat down with Brad to talk about the roofing industry, his vision for improving the company, what other opportunities are out there, and what he's seeing in the general economy right now. Read more: QXO Agrees to Acquire Beacon Roofing Supply in $11 Billion Deal Affordable Housing Developers Stalled by Blocked Federal Funds Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 27 March 2025

President Trump wants higher tariffs, and he also wants more industrial production in the United States. This we know. In the meantime, a coterie of economists and pundits have tried to assemble a larger intellectual architecture to explain that strategy in a coherent way. The story they tell is one where America gets paid by its allies for national security and access to American markets, while the US brings down its debt and deficits, and weakens the dollar, so as to make US manufacturing more globally competitive. Whether Trump sees things this way himself, and whether it will actually work is an entirely separate question. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Jim Millstein, co-chair of Guggenheim Securities, about what he sees as the massive risks underway with this line of thinking. During his time in government, he was closely involved with the conservatorship arrangement of the GSEs, so we also talk about the possibility of re-privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Read more: Dalio Warns of US Debt Crisis ‘Heart Attack’ Within Three Years Wishful Thinking Won’t Solve the US Debt Crisis Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 24 March 2025

Last week, the US market sold off sharply. The S&P 500 fell as much as 3.6% on Monday alone, entering technical correction territory. Momentum trades were hit particularly hard and stocks that had been winners for years suddenly became losers, while ones that had been losers suddenly outperformed. Perhaps the strangest thing though, is that volatility didn't really surge as things sold off. The VIX — sometimes called Wall Street's "Fear Gauge" — went up, but it didn't even reach levels that we saw in 2024 or 2022. So what happened? And why was the selloff so short and kind of strange with the lack of vol? On this episode, we speak with Charlie McElligott, Nomura strategist, about what exactly has been happening. Read only:  Hedge-Fund Momentum Bets Crater All at Once in Volatile Markets The S&P 500’s Meltdown Into a Correction Only Took 16 Days Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 21 March 2025

We finally did it. We finally did an episode on the Jones Act. For years on the podcast, we've been referencing this controversial law from 1920, which places restrictions on domestic port-to-port transport in the United States. But we had never actually done an episode on what it is, why it was created, and why people feel so fervently about either keeping or maintaining it. There are plenty of people who feel that this law is an inhibitor of US growth, because domestic water-based shipment of goods requires a US-flagged, US-crewed, and US-built vessel. And yet the law persists — for over a century now. At our live show in Washington DC, we spoked with the Cato Institute's Colin Grabow (who took the anti side) and the Transportation Institute's Sara Fuentes (who took the pro side). They explained their respective positions on questions of the economics and national security in a lively, heated (but polite) debate. Read more: Jones Act Descended From Centuries of Lazy Protectionism East Coast Gas Would Only Drop a Dime If Jones Act Lifted, Says JPMorgan Jones Act Ships Competitive for US Fuel Exports as Freight Soars Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 20 March 2025

When Donald Trump won in November, one of the things that Wall Street was excited about was an expected liberalization of merger rules. There was a popular view that under Chair Lina Khan, the Biden FTC was overly stringent about what deals it would let go through, and that the new administration would give the greenlight more often. But at least so far, reality hasn't proven to be so simple. There hasn't been a big merger wave yet. And, in fact, the FTC under new Chair Andrew Ferguson has decided to keep the merger guidelines that Khan put in place. So does this mean continuity? At a live episode of the podcast taped in Washington DC, we spoke with Ferguson about the Trump administration's vision for antitrust. He talked about his philosophy of keeping corporate power in check and the tests he's using to preserve a competitive environment. He also walked us through the long history of the FTC and the notion of consumer welfare, plus why he thinks a more expansive interpretation of the term (beyond just lower prices) is in keeping with the history of conservative legal thought. Read More: New DOJ Antitrust Chief Builds Team From Prior Administrations Trump’s FTC Moves Ahead With Broad Microsoft Antitrust Probe Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 17 March 2025

Prediction markets are everywhere nowadays. You can go online and bet on political outcomes, or the weather, or how long Taylor Swift will stay together with Travis Kelce. But prediction markets have a long history, and one of the earliest involved betting on who would be the next pope. In fact, Renaissance Romans gambled on everything from papal elections to whether a particular noblewoman would give birth to a boy or girl. So why was betting such a big thing in 1500s Italy? How did the papal prediction market actually work? And what can it tell us about prediction markets today? We speak to Ryan Isakow, the author of the No Dumb Ideas substack. Read More: A Live Experiment in Prediction Markets Prediction Markets Are a Thing NowSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 14 March 2025

Housing affordability remains one of the single greatest sources of economic stress. Even if inflation measures were to come down, the simple cost of shelter is a huge burden on a wide swathe of the population. Hardly anyone disagrees with the idea of increasing supply, but this is easier said than done. There isn't a lot of spare construction capacity and the political fights over liberalizing zoning are tedious and slow. On this episode, we speak with Kevin Erdmann, a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, who proposes a simple idea. He argues that after the Great Financial Crisis, regulators over-tightened lending standards, and in so doing, took out the entire "starter home" segment of the new housing market. He says that if Fannie and Freddie were to liberalize their lending standards, homebuilders would be incentivized to build more homes that cater to people with lower incomes and lower FICO scores, essentially re-creating a whole slice of the new home market that's disappeared over the last 15 years. Read More: US Homebuilders Face a Supply Chain Snarl From Tariff Battles US Mortgage Rates Decline to 6.88%, Lowest Level This Year Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 13 March 2025

Markets have been selling off, with shares of tech companies like Nvidia down almost 20% so far this year. But even before the recent selloff, DeepSeek rattled the AI market and sparked questions over how US platforms will compete and actually monetize their technology. Despite all these hurdles, some investors remain tech optimists. Cathie Wood, the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of ARK Investment Management, is one of the most prominent, with ARK's Innovation Fund heavily invested in companies like Tesla, Coinbase and Roku. In this conversation, recorded live on stage at Bloomberg Invest, we discuss Cathie's view of potential opportunities in the space, and why she's expecting the Trump administration to create a Reagan Era-esque "golden age" for investors. Read More:  Cathie Wood Sees Trump Era as ‘Golden Age’ for Wall Street Cathie Wood May Have Lost $14 Billion. But She’s Interesting Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC on March 12! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 11 March 2025

You’ve heard about Chinese EVs. You’ve heard about Chinese batteries and solar panels. And recently you learned that China is near the cutting edge of AI research. Here’s another category: biotech. In 2019, the Chinese share of molecules licensed to Big Pharma companies was 0%. In 2024, it’s now 31%. On this episode we speak with Tim Opler, a biotech industry investment banker at Stifel. He explains how this industry has taken off in such a short period of time. Among the factors he cites: a generation of Chinese research scientists working in the US who hit a ceiling in terms of promotion and thus went back home to start companies. It’s also far cheaper to run clinical trials in China, due to the structure of the healthcare system. We also talk about the broad history of the pharmaceutical industry, how it’s evolved, and what impact, if any, AI will have on drug discovery. Read More: Former J&J Scientist Bets on China Biotech Chinese Health Stocks Surge on DeepSeek Integration Potential Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 10 March 2025

One of the first moves made by the Trump administration was to change the nature of grants made by the National Institutes of Health. Under the new policy, there's a 15% cap on "indirect costs" associated with a given grant. This is money that essentially pays for institutional overhead, not directly related to the new costs of the specific project itself. So how do NIH grants actually work? What are the direct and indirect costs? What is the effect that's already playing out? On this episode, we speak to Carole LaBonne, a biologist and researcher at Northwestern University, on what she's already seeing from the changes. Read more: Trump’s Science Agency Pick Says He Won’t Cut More Personnel The US Is Withdrawing From Global Health at a Dangerous Time Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 8 March 2025

This week was a busy one and some of the most interesting things that happened came out of Europe, where policymakers announced up to €800 billion of additional defense spending and an easing of Germany's stringent debt rules. All of this comes as Europe responds to tariff threats from the Trump administration, as well as worries that the Trans-Atlantic security alliance may be over. So how significant could these changes be? And what do they mean for things like the euro, the dollar, and the wider financial system? And what are the vibes in Germany like right now? On this episode, we speak with George Saravelos, head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, about this huge moment. Read more: EU Backs German Push to Look at Easing Fiscal Rules for Defense Trump Hails Tariffs as US Economy Barrels Into Trade Wars Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 7 March 2025

The 1970s were a pretty eventful time in markets. There was high inflation, the end of the gold standard, and a stock market crash. There was also a bunch of ideas coming out of the University of Chicago that would go on to be famous and highly influential for investors. Perhaps the most prominent is the Efficient Market Hypothesis, posited by Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama, which says that markets are right and it's useless for investors to try to outguess them. Fama later teamed up with David Booth, the founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, and has been a longtime collaborator with the firm, which now has $777 billion under management. Today, they're releasing a documentary directed by Errol Morris and called "Tune Out the Noise," which chronicles this important time. We speak to both of these investment legends about the development of their theories, how they put them into practice, subsequent criticism, and what comes next. Read more: Wall Street Math Wizards Are Decoding Private-Market Returns Upstarts Challenge a Foundation of Modern Investing Cliff Asness Says Markets Are Less Efficient — And Social Media May Be to Blame Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 6 March 2025

Almost whichever way you measure it, the US has a lot of debt. And, with the Trump administration recently proposing a budget that would see US debt levels swell even further, it doesn't look like this issue is going away any time soon. In this episode, we speak with Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and the author of the new book, How Countries Go Broke. We talk about how he thinks about debt cycles, the catalyst for when high levels of debt become an immediate problem, what a debt crisis actually looks like, and what the US needs to do to avoid a "heart attack" debt crisis within the next three years. We also speak about what investors should do in these scenarios, including Ray's thoughts on things like Bitcoin and gold. And, of course, we also speak about his role in helping create the Chicken McNugget. Read more: The Stories We Tell Ourselves About Bonds ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 3 March 2025

A week from today we will get the February jobs report and there are growing concerns that the US labor market is slowing. Already, the number of sectors adding jobs in this economy is on the decline. Meanwhile, the housing market continues to struggle. Add in the Department of Government Efficiency and worsening fiscal conditions in the state and local sector, and the government may prove to be a drag on employment. To talk about this and other macro developments, including possible tariffs, we brought back Jon Turek, founder and CEO of JST Advisors, to break it all down on this episode. Read more: US Initial Jobless Claims Hit Highest of 2025 Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 28 February 2025

The first month of the Trump administration has been noisy and novel by basically any measure. But perhaps the biggest shockwaves have been in the realm of geopolitics. Europeans were caught off guard by a recent speech given by Vice President JD Vance in Munich, calling into doubt the future of the Trans-Atlantic partnership. Meanwhile, when it comes to tariffs, the Trump administration has actually been tougher on Mexico and Canada than it has been on China. Then add into all of this the anxiety over AI domination, as a result of the hype around DeepSeek. So how should we understand these novel risks? And how should investors incorporate them into their thinking? On this episode we speak with Jared Cohen and George Lee, the co-heads of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute. They discuss the future of Europe, what they're expecting from the Trump administration, the rise of the Gulf powers, AI, undersea cables, and the opportunities in identifying what they call "geopolitical swing states" like Japan and India. Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 27 February 2025

The so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord” has suddenly become a hot topic on Wall Street, with some investors and analysts starting to take the idea more seriously, holding meetings with clients and publishing research notes about the rumored plan. A riff on the 1985 Plaza Accord — named for the hotel where it was devised — the idea is that the Trump administration could achieve its economic aims through a reordering of the financial system that would include a conscious effort to devalue the dollar. The basic components of the plan were laid out by Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and drew on the work of Zoltan Pozsar. So how exactly could this all work? And what problems are the Trump administration trying to solve exactly? On this episode, we speak with Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research, who has been briefing his clients about the possibilities. Read more: Three Names You Need to Know to Understand the Future of the International Monetary Order ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 25 February 2025

People love listening to stories about making it big, and there are no shortage of success stories in the world of global business. There's TSMC, which has grown to become the most important producer of semiconductors. There's Hermès, which has been a power player in luxury consumer goods for over a hundred years now. Or how about Starbucks, Berkshire Hathaway, Renaissance Technologies, or Ikea? The list goes on and on. But what actually makes a company great? And why do some businesses succeed where others fail? The Acquired podcast has become a must-listen for their study of some of the most interesting companies in the world. In this episode, we speak with Acquired co-hosts Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal, about what makes a business truly great. Read More: The Five Habits of Highly Successful Companies Companies to Watch in 2025 Only Bloomberg subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 24 February 2025

Hedge funds are notorious for making big and sometimes risky trades. Banks, meanwhile, are supposed to be a lot more boring by comparison — for obvious reasons. But in recent years, we've seen banks like Silicon Valley Bank make some pretty bad bets themselves. Elham Saeidinezhad, an assistant economics professor at Barnard College, Columbia University, argues that banks have been turning into giant "synthetic hedge funds" by blending traditional lending activities with advanced financial strategies. The big question, of course, is whether they should be doing this at all, given that banks typically operate with a lot more regulatory constraint and might not be as nimble when it comes to entering or exiting positions. Read more: SVB’s 44-Hour Collapse Was Rooted in Treasury Bets During Pandemic SVB Failure Sparks Blame Game Over Trump-Era Regulatory Rule The Thorny Question of Why We Treat Banks Differently At All? Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 21 February 2025

The US is a dominant force in a number of important industries, but it's been lagging behind in one crucial area: shipbuilding. Today, there are about 80 US-flagged ships involved in global trade, compared to more than 5,500 China-flagged vessels. The worry is that the US has been falling behind in this important component of international commerce, and that the country's entire economy could be at risk of being choked off. The SHIPS for America Act is a rare bipartisan proposal that aims to address these concerns by getting America to build commercial vessels again. But how exactly do you go about reviving an industry that's been all but moribund for decades? We speak to Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona, and Senator Todd Young, a Republican from Indiana, co-sponsors of the bill, about their plan. Read More: US Lawmakers Seek to Bolster Shipbuilding at Home The Shipping Industry Is Getting a Slew of New Vessels—Right as Demand Cools Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 20 February 2025

For a long time, the world of derivatives trading was a niche thing, largely occupied by professional investors who used them for hedging purposes. During the pandemic and the Robinhood boom, the retail masses started discovering them, and activity exploded. Since then, the use of options, swaps and other levered positions has grown among both individual traders and the big professionals on Wall Street. There are countless influencers on social media promising "guaranteed" returns from various options selling strategies. New ETFs have been launched that embed derivatives inside them. And institutions, which might historically have employed simple, sleepy investments, are now making them part of their core mix. So how did this happen, and what effect is it having on the market? On this episode, we speak with Benn Eifert, partner at QVR Advisors, about the evolution of this world, why you should not get your trading advice from Instagram, and how this trend has reshaped the entire market. Read more: World’s Largest Options Market Weathers Indian Regulatory Curbs Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcribed - Published: 17 February 2025