I think it's fair to say it's been a pretty interesting start to the year with the new Trump administration's policy announcements coming fast and furiously since the inauguration.

So what impact could they have on the economy and on markets?

I'm Alison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

Today I'm sitting down once again with Jan Hotsias, head of Goldman Sachs Research and the firm's chief economist, and

Dominic Wilson, senior advisor in the Global Markets Research Group.

Jan, Dom, it's great to have you back on exchanges and to continue the dialogue we began last

November soon after President Trump was elected.

Great to be with you.

Yeah, thank you.

On one, I last spoke to you and Dom in November.

We were discussing your Outlook Report for 2025.

It was entitled with a question, which was Will Taylor-Wend's Trump Tariffs?

And I think it's fair to say that the answer at that time was probably.

But we've now seen several announcements. We have a better sense, not a

complete sense, of course, but a better sense of the tariff policy coming through in particular

and many other Trump policies. So has your thinking shifted, would you still answer the question

the same way? I would still answer it exactly the same way, both in the sense

that I think the tailwinds are probably going to trump the tariffs, but also that there's still

probably there because we actually still don't know just how pervasive the tariffs are going to be.

Of course, there have been some surprises

in terms of the details, generally a little bit less focus on China, a little bit more focus

on other things. And at the margin, it looks like the increase in the effective US tariff rate

...