Nate Silver on Harris-Trump Odds, 538’s “Broken” Model, and Why He Doesn’t Like Politics
Inside the Hive
Vanity Fair
4.2 • 1.5K Ratings
🗓️ 26 September 2024
⏱️ 38 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
With less than six weeks until Election Day, host Brian Stelter discusses the historically close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with Nate Silver, the renowned polling expert, statistician, and author of the “Silver Bulletin” Substack newsletter. Silver breaks down the latest numbers in swing states, warns against rapidly shifting media narratives, expresses frustration with his former site, and details the community of risk-takers at the center of his new book, "On the Edge."
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Transcript
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| 0:38.8 | With less than six weeks to go until the presidential election, |
| 0:42.0 | I think everyone wants to know how do you |
| 0:44.6 | characterize the current race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris? So if you go to |
| 0:49.2 | Silver Bulletin and scroll down the page which is my substack newsletter, you'll find the way I characterize it is Harris, 53 percent, |
| 0:57.0 | Trump 47 percent in terms of their respective odds of winning the Electoral College. |
| 1:01.0 | Now, you might notice a couple of things about those numbers. |
| 1:04.4 | 5347 is awfully close to 50-50. This is not saying that Harris is going to win by six points. It's saying that, like, |
| 1:10.5 | it's a coin flip where maybe the coin there's like one extra piece of metal or something on the Harris side, |
| 1:17.0 | but I don't think we've ever seen this close to race, maybe not since 2004, had some elements of this. |
| 1:23.8 | Harris is ahead in the popular vote. |
| 1:26.4 | She's about a three to one favorite to win the popular vote. |
| 1:29.1 | But the Electoral College, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. |
| 1:33.1 | You know, if you had elections today, |
| 1:35.2 | I think she'd be a slight favorite by half a point in each one, |
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