Hello, fellow Robocapitals, hope you're well.

Let's take a look at the long end of the yield curve.

We know that it's been inverted, the yield curve in general,

for quite some time, and we know that this is the most extreme inversion we have seen pretty

much anywhere on the curve in decades. So the debate out there is okay number one the

in decades. So the debate out there is okay number one do we have a recession do we not number two if we do is it a

hard landing or a soft landing and I'm not here to give you a prediction

I mean my base case is that it's And I'm not here to give you a prediction.

I mean, my base case is that it's hard landing,

but again, it's probabilities, right?

There are no certainties at all.

And I think that what we'll see is more and more the mainstream media jump on the oh we've

avoided the recession bandwagon and I think you might see the numbers improve with

maybe housing with the labor market, the jobs market, just like we've seen.

And that kind of gives people a false sense of security.

And then when no one is expecting it, or very few people, then bam, that's when we get the right or the left hook from Tyson.

Maybe he was, maybe he was famous for the right hook.

Anyway, the hook from Tyson that knocks you out, the rug pole, if you will.

And I think this is actually what the yield curve is telling us.

Now again, maybe it's wrong.

And I think an interesting argument that I haven't heard anyone talk about is one of the things that could be enhancing

the yield curve inversion is the fact that the retail buyer is so active in the bond market because of quantitative easing producing

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