Rajiv Sethi – Taking Bets on the Presidency
The Glenn Show
Glenn Loury
4.8 • 2.3K Ratings
🗓️ 1 November 2024
⏱️ 67 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Order Glenn's memoir, LATE ADMISSIONS: CONFESSIONS OF A BLACK CONSERVATIVE. Available here or wherever you get your books: https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393881349
0:00 Rajiv’s report from the FIRE conference
3:11 Roland Fryer’s keynote address
13:26 Ta-Nehisi Coates’s humanist universalism
17:25 “Tolstoy is the Tolstoy of the Zulus”
18:50 Rajiv’s reading of Coates’s stand on “apartheid”
31:55 The gap between election forecasting models and prediction markets
36:52 The limits of models and markets
39:59 Rajiv: The markets show us a balance between narratives about the election
44:17 Is one crypto trader manipulating the prediction markets in favor of Trump?
53:12 Rajiv: Prediction markets may have sent early signals about January 6
55:19 Rajiv’s family history with Kamala Harris
57:45 The new prominence of Indian Americans in politics
1:03:07 The axiom of antiessentialism
Recorded October 27, 2024
Links and Readings
Rajiv’s Substack, Imperfect Information
Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression
Lara Bazelon’s 2022 Atlantic essay, “The ACLU Has Lost Its Way”
Glenn’s 2021 conversation with Bazelon
Glenn’s 2023 conversation with Erec Smith
Eugene Volokh on the Hamline University-Prophet Muhammad painting controversy
Ta-Nehisi Coates’s book, The Message
Coates’s 2010 Atlantic essay, “The Ghost of Bobby Lee”
Ralph Wiley’s book, Dark Witness: When Black People Should Be Sacrificed (Again)
Last week’s TGS debate about The Messsage
Orlando Patterson’s book, Slavery and Social Death: A Comparative Study
Glenn’s book, The Anatomy of Racial Inequality
Glenn’s memoir, Late Admissions: Confessions of a Black Conservative
Recorded October 27, 2024
Links and Readings
Rajiv’s Substack, Imperfect Information
Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression
Lara Bazelon’s 2022 Atlantic essay, “The ACLU Has Lost Its Way”
Glenn’s 2021 conversation with Bazelon
Glenn’s 2023 conversation with Erec Smith
Eugene Volokh on the Hamline University-Prophet Muhammad painting controversy
Ta-Nehisi Coates’s book, The Message
Coates’s 2010 Atlantic essay, “The Ghost of Bobby Lee”
Ralph Wiley’s book, Dark Witness: When Black People Should Be Sacrificed (Again)
Last week’s TGS debate about The Messsage
Orlando Patterson’s book, Slavery and Social Death: A Comparative Study
Glenn’s book, The Anatomy of Racial Inequality
Glenn’s memoir, Late Admissions: Confessions of a Black Conservative
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit glennloury.substack.com/subscribe
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Please consider becoming a paid subscriber to the Glenn Show at glenlawry.substack.com. |
| 0:06.6 | As a subscriber, you will receive new episodes on Mondays instead of Fridays and get access to ticket pre-sales to live events, monthly Q&As with Glenn Laurie and John McWhorter, exclusive content, and other benefits. Thank you. |
| 0:23.4 | Hello, everybody. This is Glenn Lowry, and you've tuned into the Glenn Show. I teach at Brown |
| 0:29.6 | University where I'm a professor of economics. And I'm also John Paulson, senior fellow at the Manhattan |
| 0:35.6 | Institute, and I'm joined this week by Rajiv Setti, |
| 0:40.4 | who's professor of economics at Barnard College at Columbia University, and an old and dear friend |
| 0:46.0 | of mine. He's an expert on many things, including prediction markets with the election coming, |
| 0:53.1 | I thought it'd be fun to talk to him. But as I was saying to him, before we turned the recorder on, I really just need a friend to talk to at this time. And Rajeev is someone I've known for decades. And we've collaborated on academic research. And we've taught together in Bogota, Colombia for summer schools and done many |
| 1:16.1 | other things over the years. So it's very good to welcome you, Rajee, my old friend, to the |
| 1:22.0 | Glenn Show. I'm delighted to be here, Glenn. Thanks for having me back. How are you doing? |
| 1:30.2 | I am doing fine. I have been inundated by calls from reporters about what's going on on the prediction markets, especially with |
| 1:36.3 | regard to differences between the markets and the models with regard to their forecasts on the |
| 1:42.1 | election. And I just got back from the fire conference in Boston. |
| 1:46.7 | So, you know, things have been a bit busy, but I'm doing fine. |
| 1:49.5 | Thank you. |
| 1:50.7 | Fire, foundation for individual rights in education or something like that? |
| 1:56.1 | It's now a foundation for individual rights and expression. |
| 1:59.8 | It used to be education. |
| 2:01.9 | Yeah, they kept the same acronym that changed the meaning of it. What was the conference? They have an annual academic conference. |
| 2:09.9 | So it's really people who are either working with their own data. They have a lot of data that's |
| 2:16.5 | freely available to researchers. They have a lot of data that's freely available to researchers. |
| 2:18.7 | They have academic grants. |
... |
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