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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

All-In Podcast, LLC

Alllin, Coronavirus, Calacanis, Palihapitiya, Health, Sacks, Friedberg, Allin, Entrepreneurship, Covid19, Gambling, Grow, Investing, Iq, Tips, Tech, Business, Jason, Startups, Poker, Technology, Money, Learn, Davidsacks, Davidfriedberg, Chamath

4.27.1K Ratings

🗓️ 28 January 2025

⏱️ 76 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

(0:00) Ray Dalio joins Friedberg!

(0:50) The current US fiscal situation

(6:23) Breaking down "The Big Debt Cycle," a potential US debt spiral, and the impact on real wealth

(24:54) USD vs other currencies and assets, best hedges against the dollar

(33:20) Portfolio construction, how China increases risk for US AI companies, why this market reminds Ray of 1998-1999

(41:45) How the US can avoid a debt crisis

(53:29) DOGE, Trump, and AI's greatest risk

(1:05:31) Chances of conflict between the US and China

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Referenced in the show:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/treasury-confirms-calendar-year-2024-deficit-tops-20-trillion

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61172

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2bstne1l09npgdk1s5yww/corner-office/ray-dalio-makes-his-exit-from-bridgewater

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-september-2024

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertfarrington/2024/11/08/fed-cut-interest-rates-so-why-do-mortgage-rates-keep-climbing

https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/fomc-recap-december-2024

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/a-global-bond-sell-off-is-deepening-as-hopes-for-multiple-fed-rate-cuts-fizzle.html

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

It was the government that was the big buyer. Then you get everybody leveraging up. Then you've got a problem.

0:06.5

Do you own Bitcoin, right? Yeah, I have some, not nearly as much as gold. The AI war. It's a war that

0:12.8

no country can lose. If China or the U.S. really lose this war, it's more important than profits.

0:23.1

We're at a civil war internally, and we're at an this war. It's more important than profits. We're at a civil war internally,

0:28.8

and we're at an international war simultaneously. Just have people behave logically.

0:31.9

Maybe that's too much to ask. We hope.

0:37.5

I'm going all in. All right, besties. I think that was another epic discussion.

0:38.7

People love the interviews.

0:40.5

I could hear talk for hours.

0:41.1

Absolutely.

0:43.0

We crushed your questions a minute.

0:46.3

We are giving people ground truth data to underwrite your own opinion.

0:47.2

What are you going to say?

0:47.8

That was fun.

0:48.4

How is great? I'm doing all in.

0:50.5

Ray, good morning.

0:51.6

Good morning.

0:52.4

I'm going to start off by sharing a couple stats.

0:55.7

Today, the U.S. has $36.4 trillion of federal government debt and GDP of $29.1 trillion, giving a debt to GDP ratio of 125%.

1:06.3

And this ratio has climbed steadily since the pandemic began in 2020, when the federal government

1:12.2

debt was 20 trillion and GDP was just 21 trillion.

1:16.0

So since the pandemic, federal government debt has risen by 80% while GDPs climbed 38%.

...

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