Ride Hailing, Electric Scooters, Even Flying Cars – What’s Next for the Mobility Market?

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 25 July 2019

⏱️ 24 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The next 10 years of mobility will bring more change in the way that people and products move than any decade since the invention of the automobile, Goldman Sachs Research’s Heath Terry explains in this episode. Emerging technologies and business models like ride-hailing and sharing, autonomous driving and delivery, micro-mobility and even eVTOL (flying cars, finally) stand to disrupt profit pools that we estimate exceed $700 billion, and venture-backed startups and incumbents will attempt to address over $7 trillion in spending. Given the size of the opportunity, it should come as no surprise that access to capital has created a hyper-competitive environment marked by massive operating losses driven by marketing, subsidies, incentives, and capital investment. As this environment matures and rationalizes, Goldman Sachs Research expects consolidation that will lead to profitability, the establishment of category leaders, and significant opportunities for investors.

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is Exchanges of Goldman Sachs, where we discuss developments currently shaping markets, industries, and the global economy.
0:14.6	I'm Jake Stewart, global head of corporate communications here at the firm. The question of today's episode is,
0:20.0	why is mobility about to change more than it has since the invention of the automobile?
0:25.3	To answer that question, we're joined by Heath Terry, business unit leader for the
0:29.3	technology, media, and telecom group in Goldman Sachs research. Heath and his team are out with a new report on the future mobility.
0:35.6	Heath, welcome back to the program. You've been one of our most regular guests.
0:39.2	Great, thanks for having me, Jay.
0:40.6	Let's start with putting some numbers on this. What are the three numbers that
0:43.8	listeners should know pertaining to the future mobility by the time we're done
0:48.0	with this episode? Yeah so the three are 7 trillion 95 percent and 26 percent. So that's 7 trillion, 95% and 26%. So that's $7 trillion worth of global spending on
0:57.0	transportation that generates 700 billion dollars in profits, nearly 9% of
1:02.4	global GDP.
1:03.7	We always like to go after big addressable markets.
1:07.5	This is one of the biggest.
1:08.9	The second one, 95%, that's the amount of time
1:12.3	that the average automobile sits unused.
1:14.5	So this is the second biggest purchase for most people in their lifetime, and it's not even
1:19.2	getting used more than roughly 5% of the time, and's an appreciating asset. And then third 26%
1:25.5	that's the number of US 16 year olds that are getting their driver's licenses now.
1:29.2	That was nearly 44% 20 years ago and it's been coming down across all those groups.
1:34.6	Now clearly that's not just because of ride hailing there's a lot more there but it tells you
1:38.5	a lot about kind of the changing attitudes towards car ownership.
	...

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