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Choiceology with Katy Milkman

The Mystery of Chance: With Guests Andy Marocco & Tom Gilovich

Choiceology with Katy Milkman

Charles Schwab

Behavioral Economics, Society & Culture, Social Sciences, Decision Making, Charles Schwab, Business, Science, Investing, Dan Heath, Katy Milkman

4.81.4K Ratings

🗓️ 21 January 2019

⏱️ 27 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Have you ever seen a cloud overhead that looks very much like, say, a rabbit? Or maybe you’ve found a potato chip that had an uncanny resemblance to Elvis, or a cornflake that was almost exactly the shape of the state of Texas. What are the chances? In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore curious events and mysterious patterns in order to reveal the human habit of ascribing meaning to randomness. Andy Marocco of the Naval Air Station Fort Lauderdale Museum joins Katy to revisit some of the most famous and enduring unsolved air and naval mysteries that have occurred inside the “treacherous” Bermuda Triangle. You’ll hear about several famous disappearances, with a focus on the harrowing tale of Flight 19 in which several planes and airmen vanished without a trace. Next, we conduct a simple experiment--or is it a magic trick?--involving a series of coin tosses. Our game master will attempt to identify a truly random list from a pile of imposter lists, using nothing but mental prowess. (If you’re still skeptical about how “lumpy” randomness is, just notice how many possible outcomes of four coin flips include either three heads or three tails in a row: HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HHTT, HTHH, HTHT, HTTH, HTTT, THHH, THHT, THTH, THTT, TTHH, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT.) Then we hear from Cornell University psychology professor Tom Gilovich about randomness as it pertains to iPods, jellybeans, faces, and canals on Mars. Finally, Katy Milkman offers tips on how basic statistical analysis can help you make better decisions.

Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm Katie Milkman and this is Choiceology.

0:07.0

You probably remember the story about the person who thought they had the image of Jesus on a grilled cheese sandwich.

0:14.4

Well now a London man is trying to claim that he found Prince Williams bride to be on a jelly bean.

0:20.0

I see it.

0:21.0

Yeah, you see it all right.

0:22.0

Yes, it's the famous Illinois shaped cornflake plucked from a cereal box by two young

0:27.6

women from Virginia.

0:28.9

What this man saw as he was driving was enough to make him hit the brakes.

0:33.0

Nobody will leave me if I didn't do this live,

0:35.0

but I want you to look at this cloud in the sky.

0:37.0

Is that not an angel or what?

0:39.0

It sure does look like an angel.

0:41.0

What?

0:42.0

The news and so like an angel.

0:44.2

The news and social media feeds are packed with stories of remarkable unlikely events.

0:50.1

Surprising coincidences that seem to defy explanation.

0:53.9

And while fakory and deception sometimes come into play,

0:57.2

many of these stories are real and really hard to explain.

1:01.7

In this episode, we'll examine a human tendency to attach meaning to incredible coincidences. This is choiceology, an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

1:19.2

We explore all kinds of decisions, from simple daily choices to far more significant life-changing ones.

1:25.2

Then we guide you through the hidden psychological forces that influence those

1:29.7

decisions for better or for worse. And we do it all to help you avoid costly mistakes. Oh, If you're of a certain age you might remember a time when the Bermuda Triangle was regularly featured as a plot point in TV shows and adventure novels.

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