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Plain English with Derek Thompson

The Self-Driving Revolution Is Real—and It Could Be Spectacular

Plain English with Derek Thompson

The Ringer

News Commentary, News

4.81.8K Ratings

🗓️ 15 November 2024

⏱️ 67 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

What would a world of self-driven cars look like? How would it change shopping, transportation, and life, more broadly? A decade ago, many people were asking these questions, as it looked like a boom in autonomous vehicles was imminent. But in the last few years, other technologies—crypto, the metaverse, AI—have stolen the spotlight. Meanwhile, self-driving cars have quietly become a huge deal in the U.S. Waymo One, a commercial ride-hailing service that spun off from Google, has been rolled out in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin. Every week, Waymo makes 150,000 autonomous rides. Tesla is also competing to build a robo-taxi service and to develop self-driving capabilities. There are two reasons why I’ve always been fascinated by self-driving cars: The first is safety. There are roughly 40,000 vehicular deaths in America every year and 6 million accidents. It’s appropriate to be concerned about the safety of computer-driven vehicles. But what about the safety of human-driven vehicles? A technology with the potential to save thousands of lives and prevent millions of accidents is a huge deal. Second, the automobile was arguably the most important technology of the 20th century. The invention of the internal combustion engine transformed agriculture, personal transportation, and supply chains. It made the suburbs possible. It changed the spatial geometry of the city. It expanded demand for fossil fuels and created some of the most valuable companies in the world. The reinvention of last century’s most important technology is a massive, massive story. And the truth is, I’m not sure that today’s news media—a category in which I include myself—has done an adequate job representing just how game-changing self-driving technology at scale could be. Today’s guest is Timothy Lee, author of the Substack publication Understanding AI. Today I asked him to help me understand self-driving cars—their technology, their industry, their possibility, and their implications. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Timothy Lee Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:08.9

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1:03.0

Adobe Express, the quick and easy create anything app.

1:09.6

Today, the self-driving revolution and how it could change the future of transportation.

1:17.3

There's a famous graph in tech history. It's called the Gartner hype cycle. It looks like a wave,

1:23.8

up and down and up, where the X-axis represents time and the y-axis represents hype.

1:30.6

So a new technology debuts and, of course, expectations go through the roof, the peak of

1:35.4

excitement. But almost no invention arrives fully formed. It needs a series of micro-inventions

1:42.3

to make it cheaper, safer, more effective, more scalable.

1:46.5

And because it's incredibly difficult to scale a new technology, inevitable disappointments

1:50.7

tend to plunge this new technology into a pit of despair. But over time, people continue

1:57.8

to work and tinker and the tech gets better in the absence of any circus of hype, until it's eventually, suddenly, everywhere.

2:08.6

The Gartner hype cycle is a cliche in tech, but that's because, like most things that become cliches, it's true enough.

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