Plain English with Derek Thompson

In 1937, a Rhode Island psychiatrist named Charles Bradley ran an experiment on 30 child patients who had complained of headaches. He gave them an amphetamine, that is a stimulant, called Benzedrine, which was popular at the time among jazz musicians and college students. The experiment failed, in one sense. The headaches persisted. But he noted that half of the children responded in what he called spectacular fashion, as teachers said these children seemed instantly transformed by the drug. Rather than being bored by their homework, they were interested in it. Rather than being hyperactive, they became more “placid and easygoing.” Rather than complaining to parents about chores, they would make comments like: “I start to make my bed, and before I know it, it is done.” Bradley published the results in The American Journal of Insanity, and it marks perhaps the origins of our treatment model for ADHD. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, or ADHD, has always been hard to define. It’s harder still in an age when everybody feels like modern entertainment and the omnipresence of our screens make it hard for anybody to concentrate and sit still. But clearly, some people struggle with concentration and stillness more than others. ADHD has many classic symptoms, but it is typically marked by patterns of inattentiveness—frequently losing items, failing to follow multistep instructions—or by hyperactivity: say, fidgeting, or, for some children, being literally incapable of sitting in one place for more than half a second. In a way, I’ve always disliked the phrase "attention-deficit disorder," because ADHD is not about a deficit of ordinary attention but a surplus of feral attention—an overflowing of raw, uncontrollable noticing. Last week, the journalist Paul Tough published a long, 9,000-word essay in The New York Times Magazine about ADHD called "Have We Been Thinking About ADHD All Wrong?" Tough asked hard questions about why diagnoses are soaring. Is this evidence of an epidemic? Or is it evidence of overdiagnosis? Paul is today’s guest. We talk about his blockbuster essay, what its loudest critics said about it, what its loudest advocates said about it, and why they both might be wrong. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Paul Tough Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 25 April 2025

Last week, a team of astrophysicists from the University of Cambridge announced that they had discovered the “strongest indication” ever of extraterrestrial life. The source did not come from Mars or Venus or any nearby moon. It came from K2-18b, a massive planet some 120 light-years from Earth. If this finding checks out, it is, without question, one of the most important discoveries in the history of science. But many scientists think that ... well, it might not check out at all. Today’s guest is Sara Seager, a celebrated astrophysicist at MIT. Seager is a pioneer in the study of exoplanets and their atmospheres. She has done as much as practically anybody to develop the science of interpreting light from faraway stars to make inferences about planets. In today’s show, Seager and I slowly worked our way up to last week’s announcement by building a foundation of the basic science at play. What are exoplanets? How do we know that they’re there? How do we have any idea about the chemicals present on that planet if we can’t send probes to test their air? What does the K2-18b finding really tell us? And what larger philosophical questions about life and aliens are raised by this new science of exoplanet atmospheres? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Sara Seager Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 22 April 2025

In the past three weeks, we've spoken to economists about the tariffs. We’ve spoken to a historian about the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and the 100-year legacy of American protectionism. We've spoken to supply chain expert Jason Miller from Michigan State about why China is set up to win the upcoming trade war. But the voice we haven’t heard is the voice of business. People who run companies are screaming at whoever will listen that the White House agenda will decimate business and plunge their industries into a recession. Today’s guest is Molson Hart. He’s run a manufacturing business in the U.S. for the last 15 years. His company, Viahart, manufactures consumer products in China, Indonesia, and Vietnam and sells them both in stores and online—mostly in the U.S. His biggest vertical is toys, including Brain Flakes, which are molded plastic disks that kids and adults can snap together to build things. This is not a bleeding-heart lefty. Quite the opposite: This is a guy who is rooting for the Trump agenda to succeed. This is a guy who told me in our interview he wants to believe that the Trump team has its heart in the right place when it comes to bringing back manufacturing in the long run. And yet he has called these tariffs not just a bad idea … but the worst economic policy in American history. I spoke to him this week, and he was just incredibly compelling and thoughtful about the toy industry, why it’s so difficult to bring back American manufacturing quickly, and how these tariffs could do incredible damage to America’s small businesses. So we’ve decided to rush out this interview a little sooner than we intended, in part because it’s great and in part because this news story is moving so quickly, it’s hard to know what reality will even look like next week. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Molson Hart Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 17 April 2025

The U.S. is in the opening innings of a full-blown trade war with China. What does that actually mean? What do we sell to China? What does China sell to us? How is each country dependent on the other for the supply of electronics, food, machines, and goods? Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State and an expert on global supply chains, tells Derek that in the trade war between the U.S. and China, one of these two countries seems better positioned to weather a protracted trade dispute—and it’s not the U.S. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jason Miller Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 16 April 2025

The 1920s and the 2020s share a special kinship. One hundred years ago, the U.S. was grappling with a mix of growth, technological splendor, and generational anxiety—a familiar cocktail (albeit, from an era where cocktails were illegal). The era’s young people felt uniquely besieged by global forces. “My whole generation is restless," F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote in This Side of Paradise. “A new generation dedicated more than the last to the fear of poverty and the worship of success; grown up to find all Gods dead, all wars fought, all faiths in man shaken." America was changing. And change always implies a kind of loss. We were moving toward cars and cities and manufacturing. And that meant we were moving away from horses and farmland and agriculture. And so, in 1930, just months into the Great Depression, Herbert Hoover signed a new piece of legislation to restore farmers to their previous glory. It was a great big tariff—the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. Rather than save the economy, it deepened the depression. Today, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff is one of the most infamous failures in the history of American politics. To suggest that it holds lessons for this moment in history is to state the obvious. Our guest is Douglas Irwin, an economist and historian at Dartmouth University and an expert on the economic debates of the Great Depression. We talk about the economic motivations of the Smoot-Hawley tariff, the congressional debates that shaped it, the president who signed it, and the legacy it left. We talk about the economic instinct to preserve the past—an instinct that has never gone away in American history—and the profound irony, that some efforts to return America to its former glory can have the unintended effect of robbing America of a richer future. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Douglas Irwin Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 11 April 2025

Donald Trump's tariff plan has set global markets on fire. What are they for? What are they trying to accomplish? Fresh off his black-out-rage session on CNBC, Derek talks to Matthew Klein, the author of ‘The Overshoot’ newsletter and coauthor with economist Michael Pettis of the widely acclaimed economics book ‘Trade Wars Are Class Wars.’ We talk about the Trump tariffs, their place in history, the goal of reindustrialization, and why our problem with China is a malady worth solving—even if Trump’s medicine is just making us sicker. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Matthew Klein Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 8 April 2025

Donald Trump's second term has been a breakneck whirlwind: tariffs announced, tariffs unannounced, tariffs reannounced, allies threatened, and global coalitions ripped apart. What sort of a world are Trump and the White House trying to build? If you stand back from the brush strokes, and take in the full mural, it is possible to see something like a grand economic strategy. One way his chief economic advisers have put it is that we’re using America’s power in the 2020s as leverage to rebalance the global economy in a way that helps U.S. companies grow faster. There are several questions to ask about this stated economic strategy. One is whether or not it’s working. When tariffs designed to buoy the auto manufacturing economy lead instead to hundreds of layoffs among steelworkers getting walloped by trade wars—as they did this past week—it's hard to be confident that Trump's gambit is paying off. A very different question to ask is whether Trump’s economic strategy is _economic—_or, strictly speaking, strategic—at all. Much of our geopolitical agenda today seems to be a simple extrapolation of Donald Trump’s personality. His proclivity for audacious promises. His tactic of using leverage to squeeze counterparties. His preference for mano a mano deal-making over coalitional bargains. Today’s guests are Rogé Karma, a staff writer for The Atlantic, and Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard. We talk about the new world order Trump seems to be accelerating us toward. But we also talk about Trump himself, an unusual leader whose governance style often seems to have more to do with personal leverage than with policy. By evaluating the White House along both of these fronts, perhaps we can begin to see around the corner and understand what kind of a world, and what kind of a global economy, Donald Trump is pulling into view. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Rogé Karma and Jason Furman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 31 March 2025

Corruption. Class wars. Technological splendor. The dawn of a new age of business and government. Rockefeller and Carnegie. The Gilded Age in America—roughly the 1870s through the early 1900s—was one of the most fascinating and misunderstood eras in our history. It seems like every week, news organizations claim that the U.S. is in a new Gilded Age. But what does that mean? What was the Gilded Age? Today’s guest is Richard White, award-winning historian and author of ‘The Republic for Which It Stands,’ a mammoth history of America between the end of the Civil War and the end of the 19th century. We talk about how corruption and monopoly and power worked during that period. We talk about Rockefeller and Carnegie and Morgan, and how these giants typified the era with their business genius and their thin sense of morality. We talk about how the monopolies of this era used the government, and the government used these monopolies. And we talk about how the movements that emerged from the Gilded Age invented the modern world. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Richard White Producer: Devon Baroldi P.S. If you live in Seattle, Atlanta, or the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area, Derek is coming your way in March! See him live at book events in your city. Tickets here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 24 March 2025

Donald Trump is serving up a scarcity agenda to America. He and the White House say we don’t have an economy that works, so we might just need to accept a period of economic hardship. They say America cannot afford its debt, and therefore we cannot afford health care for the poor. They say America doesn’t have enough manufacturing, so we have to accept less trade. They say America doesn’t have enough housing, and so we need fewer immigrants. America needs the opposite of this scarcity mindset to grow and thrive. We need an abundance agenda. But what does that mean? The answer to that question is in my new book, which I cowrote with the New York Times columnist and podcaster Ezra Klein. He is also today’s guest. We talk about ‘Abundance’ the book, and why it exists. And we talk about abundance the idea, and why it matters. (You can buy the book here!) If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ezra Klein Producer: Devon Baroldi P.S. If you live in Seattle, Atlanta, or the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area, Derek is coming your way in March! See him live at book events in your city. Tickets here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 17 March 2025

Generation Z, which was born between the late 1990s and the early 2010s, has a unique economic, political, and cultural identity. In the 2024 election, Gen Z shifted strongly to the right. They are less likely than any previous generation to expect they’ll achieve the American Dream. Most of Gen Z graduated into a pandemic economy or entered high school during the school shutdown years.They have record-high rates of anxiety. They use their phone ... a lot. Defined by the forces of scarcity, phone-driven media, and global crisis, they are different. And their differences will drive the future of U.S. economics, politics, and culture. Today’s guest Kyla Scanlon is 27 years old, making her an older Gen Z representative. As a financial commentator on TikTok, Instagram, and Substack, she’s coined several terms—like the vibecession—that have made their way into the New York Times and federal economic reports. For a long time, I wanted to have a conversation about young people that doesn’t make me subject to a bunch of Reddit memes of Steve Buscemi holding the skateboard asking, “how do you do, fellow kids?” I wanted to get somebody smart, who was a member of Gen Z, and who also had conducted their own surveys of Gen Z. I’m very honored to have Kyla tell me about how young people today think and what they want. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kyla Scanlon Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 12 March 2025

Cancer is not a singular disease but a category of hundreds, even thousands, of rare diseases with different molecular signatures and genetic roots. Cancer scientists are looking for a thousand perfect keys to pick a thousand stubborn locks. Today's episode is about the hardest lock of them all: pancreatic cancer. Cancer’s power lives in its camouflage. The immune system is often compared to a military search and destroy operation, with our T cells serving as the expert snipers, hunting down antigens and taking them out. But cancer kills so many of us because it looks so much like us. Pancreatic cancer is so deadly in part because it's expert at hiding itself from the immune system. Now, here’s the good news. This might be the brightest moment for progress in  pancreatic cancer research in decades—and possibly ever. In the past few years, scientists have developed new drugs that target the key gene mutation responsible for out of control cell growth. Recently, a team of scientists at Oregon Health and Science University claimed to have developed a blood test that is 85 percent accurate at early-stage detection of pancreatic cancer, which is absolutely critical given how advanced the cancer is by the time it’s typically caught. And last month, a research center at Memorial Sloan Kettering published a truly extraordinary paper. Using mRNA technology similar to the COVID vaccines, a team of scientists designed a personalized therapy to buff up the immune systems of people with pancreatic cancer. Patients who responded to the treatment saw results that boggle the mind: 75 percent were cancer-free three years after their initial treatment. Not just alive, which would be its own minor miracle. But cancer-free. The mRNA vaccine, administered within a regimen of standard drugs, stood up to the deadliest cancer of them all and won. Today’s guest is the head of that research center, the surgical oncologist Vinod Balachandran. The concept of a personalized cancer vaccine is still unproven at scale. But if it works, the potential is enormous. But again: Cancer does not exist, as a singular disease. Cancer is a category of rare diseases, many of which are exquisitely specific to the molecular mosaic of the patient. Cancers are personal. Perhaps in a few years, our cures for cancers will be equally personalized. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Vinod Balachandran Producer: Devon Baroldi Links:  Cancer Vaccine paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08508-4 P.S. Derek wrote a new book! It’s called 'Abundance,' and it’s about an optimistic vision for politics, science, and technology that gets America building again. Buy it here: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Abundance/Ezra-Klein/9781668023488 Plus: If you live in Seattle, Atlanta, or the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area, Derek is coming your way in March! See him live at book events in your city. Tickets here: The Abundance Book Tour Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 7 March 2025

Artificial intelligence tools for musicians are getting eerily good, very fast. Their work can be maddening, funny, ethically dubious, and downright fascinating all at the same time. TV and podcast composer Mark Henry Phillips joins to describe his experience working with them. We talk about the job of modern music composition; why he's worried AI might eventually do much of his current job; the morass of AI copyright law; and the ethics of creative ownership. But above all, Mark gets my brain whirring about the nature of creativity—how great new ideas, like songs, come to be in the first place. The line between stealing and inspiration in artistic history has always been blurry. Picasso famously said: “Good artists copy, great artists steal.” And that is not just a memorable quote. Many of my favorite musicians were famous borrowers, to put it lightly. Some of Led Zeppelin's most famous songs—such as "Whole Lotta Love"—were such obvious lifts that, after years of court cases, the band agreed to add the plaintiff to the song credits. But analogies to music and art history also fall short to capture the weirdness of this moment. Neither Picasso nor Jimmy Page had access to an external technology whose deliberate function was to slurp up musical elements from millions of songs, store their essence in silicon memory, and serve them up in a kind of synthetic stir fry on an order-by-order basis. Musicians have been writing music with partners for decades, even centuries. What happens to music when that partner is a machine: Will it open up new horizons in songwriting and composition? Or in a sad way, will super-intelligence make the future of music more average than ever? Links: WNYC: "How AI and Algorithms Are Transforming Music"  "In February's Cruel Light (Goodbye Luka)" Full AI song "L.A. Luka (I Wanna Puke-uh)" Full AI song  P.S. Derek wrote a new book! It’s called 'Abundance,' and it’s about an optimistic vision for politics, science, and technology that gets America building again. Buy it here: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Abundance/Ezra-Klein/9781668023488 Plus: If you live in Seattle, Atlanta, or the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area, Derek is coming your way in March! See him live at book events in your city. Tickets here: https://www.simonandschuster.com/p/abundance-tour Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 4 March 2025

Something alarming is happening with reading in America. Leisure reading by some accounts has declined by about 50 percent this century. Literacy scores are declining for fourth and eighth graders at alarming rates. And even college students today are complaining to teachers that they can’t read entire books. The book itself, that ancient piece of technology for storing ideas passed down across decades, is fading in curricula across the country, replaced by film and TV and YouTube. Why, with everything happening in the world, would I want to talk about reading? The business podcaster Joe Weisenthal has recently turned me on to the ideas of Walter Ong and his book 'Orality and Literacy.' According to Ong, literacy is not just a skill. It is a specific means of structuring society's way of thinking. In oral cultures, Ong says, knowledge is preserved through repetition, mnemonics, and stories. Writing and reading, by contrast, fix words in place. One person can write, and another person, decades later, can read precisely what was written. This word fixing also allows literate culture to develop more abstract and analytical thinking. Writers and readers are, after all, outsourcing a piece of their memory to a page. Today, we seem to be completely reengineering the logic engine of society. The decline of reading in America is not the whole of this phenomenon. But I think that it’s an important part of it. Today we have two conversations—one with a journalist and one with an academic. First, Atlantic staff writer Rose Horowitch shares her reporting on the decline of reading at elite college campuses. And second, Nat Malkus of the American Enterprise Institute tells us about the alarming decline in literacy across our entire student population and even among adults. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Rose Horowitch and Nat Malkus Producer: Devon Baroldi Links "The Elite College Students Who Can’t Read Books" "Testing Theories of Why: Four Keys to Interpreting US Student Achievement Trends"  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 28 February 2025

If you had to describe the U.S. economy at the moment, I think you could do worse than the word stuck. The labor market is stuck. The low unemployment rate disguises how surprisingly hard it is to find a job today. The hiring rate has declined consistently since 2022, and it's now closer to its lowest level of the 21st century than the highest. We’re in this weird moment where it feels like everybody’s working but nobody’s hiring. Second, the housing market is stuck. Interest rates are high, tariffs are looming, and home builder confidence is flagging. The median age of first-time homebuyers just hit a record high of 38 this year. Finally, people are stuck. Americans don't move anymore. Sixty years ago, one in five Americans moved every year. Now it’s one in 13. According to today’s guest, Yoni Appelbaum, the deputy executive editor of The Atlantic, the decline of migration in the U.S. is perhaps the most important social fact of modern American life. Yoni is the author of the latest cover story for The Atlantic, "How Progressives Froze the American Dream," which is adapted from his book with the fitting title 'Stuck.' Yoni was our guest for our first sold-out live show in Washington, D.C., at Union Stage in February. Today, we talk about the history of housing in America, policy and zoning laws, and why Yoni thinks homeowners in liberal cities have strangled the American dream. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Yoni Appelbaum Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 25 February 2025

Who is the most successful president in American history? George Washington secured American independence. Abraham Lincoln preserved the union and ended slavery. Franklin D. Roosevelt ended the Depression, remade government, and won World War II. But if we define "success" as the ability to articulate your goals and achieve every single one of them, perhaps only one president in American history was ever perfectly successful. In 1845, James K. Polk, newly elected by a whisker-thin margin, confided to his friend George Bancroft the four goals of his four years in the White House. Acquire Oregon from Great Britain. Acquire California from Mexico. Reduce the tariff. Establish an independent treasury. Four years later, he'd done all this and more. As the historian Daniel Patrick Howe wrote, "Judged by these objectives, Polk is probably the most successful president the United States has ever had.” And that’s why Polk is the subject of today’s show. I don’t think another president in American history has so large a gap between his modern reputation and his actual achievement. There are two great biographies about Polk that I’ve read that have been published in the last 20 years. I’m very pleased that today, we have both authors on the show. Walter Borneman is the author of 'Polk: The Man Who Transformed the Presidency and America.' And Robert Merry is the author of 'A Country of Vast Designs: James K. Polk, the Mexican War and the Conquest of the American Continent_._' If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Walter Borneman and Robert Merry Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 21 February 2025

For the past month, chaos and confusion have gripped Washington and the federal government. Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, have served as an iron fist of the Trump administration—ransacking government agencies, lighting fires in various departments, and generally firing as many people as they can get away with. Much of this work is plainly illegal. Every 12 hours, it seems, another federal judge rules that the Trump administration has exceeded its executive authority. Efficiency is a worthy goal, and some of the programs that Musk and his team cut may turn out to be wasteful. Still, the way Musk has gone about his work—destroying life-saving programs at USAID, mistakenly offering buyouts to nuclear assembly engineers and essential doctors with Veterans Affairs, slashing funds for important studies and data collection programs across government—suggests that his bureaucratic blitzkrieg isn't just illegal; it's careless and harmful. The U.S. deserves a theory of government more sophisticated than "F-ck around and find out." So, what would an effective DOGE look like? Today’s guests are Michael Geruso, an associate professor of economics at the University of Texas at Austin, and Tim Layton, a professor of health care policy at UVA. We explain why any sensible waste and fraud search-and-destroy effort should start with health care spending. Then we get very nerdy about waste and fraud in health care. Most importantly, we talk about trade-offs. It’s a myth that there is some pot of $10 billion just lying around, doing nothing, gathering dust. Every dollar of federal government spending goes to a person in a place doing a thing. And that means that every dollar we cut will have a recipient on the other end who is losing a dollar. Taking government efficiency seriously requires thinking about both sides of this equation: What do we get when we spend this dollar, and what do we lose when we take that dollar away? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Michael Geruso and Tim Layton Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 18 February 2025

This is a conversation I've wanted to have for a long time. It's about the decline of religion in America, the value of faith, the case for belief, and the rational reasons to believe in God. My guest is the New York Times columnist Ross Douthat. He is a Catholic conservative. From an identity checkbox standpoint, we are very different people. But Ross is one of my favorite writers from any point of the ideological spectrum. His new book is 'Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious,' and it begins with an extremely compelling description of Ross reading the feedback he’s getting at the Times, watching that feedback evolve from “You stupid idiot, how could you possibly believe in a magical man in the sky?” to “I think I’m missing something in my life, a religion-sized hole at the center of my community or myself. Can you help me find it?” We talk about his religious journey and mine, the history of religion in America, the popular misconception that science automatically rolled back religiosity, the rational, scientific case for the existence of God, why I find that case emotionally lacking, and the case for even secular people to believe in God. And, finally, I invite Ross to give me his single best case that Christianity is true. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ross Douthat Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 14 February 2025

Why is it so hard to find a cure for Alzheimer’s? A simple answer is that the brain and its disorders are complicated. But as today’s guest, Charles Piller, writes, there’s another, more sinister factor at play. His new book, 'Doctored,' traces an incredible, true story of fraud, arrogance, and tragedy in the quest to cure Alzheimer’s. In the last few years, some of the most famous and revered neuroscientists in America have been accused of doctoring images in research related to Alzheimer’s and neuroscience—even as they raised tens of millions of dollars in funding based on this doctored science and set up clinical trials for thousands of patients based on these manipulated results. At the same time, a silent conspiracy of groupthink starved this field of research of fresh ideas, with catastrophic consequences. Piller explains how he broke the story of what might be this century's biggest scandal in American medical science. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Charles Piller Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 11 February 2025

Fans of green energy like me face some inconvenient truths about the global energy picture. First, coal sounds like a dirty technology that the rich world is moving on from. But nearly 9 billion tons of coal were burned last year—an all-time high. Second, "peak oil" is a prediction that many analysts have thrown around in the past few years, but oil production is also near its all-time high. Third, we might not even be at peak wood: Global wood fuel production was higher in 2024 than in 1980. At the same time, I think the renewable energy revolution is proving to be its own unstoppable phenomenon. Solar and battery installations are still exploding upward, and whereas some skeptics worried that the earth wouldn’t be able to provide the essential elements and metals to build out a green energy system, those doubts seem, for the moment, overwrought. Lithium, which is one of the most important metals for battery production, has seen its resources double since 2018. So what we have is not a pretty picture but a messy one. A green energy boom matched with an enormous demand for fossil fuels, as billions of people around the world drive and eat and demand the middle-class lifestyle that is their right. Today’s guest is Nat Bullard, an independent energy analyst and the author of a new extraordinary report on the state of energy and decarbonization. We talk about everything: coal, oil, wood, and natural gas; the history of nuclear vs. solar in America; the solar and battery revolution of the 21st century; the political barriers to its growth; the rise of BYD in China; the flatlining of Tesla's growth; and the future of energy technology. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nat Bullard Producer: Devon Baroldi Nat's report: https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 7 February 2025

Wealth isn’t just about financial security, according to today’s guest, Sahil Bloom. It’s about time wealth (the freedom to control our own schedules), social wealth (deep relationships with family and friends), mental wealth (the space to think clearly about the most important questions in life), and physical wealth (health and vitality). Bloom’s new book, 'The 5 Types of Wealth,' is uncommonly wise and deep on the questions I care about most. Why is it so hard to make friends late in life? How can we build a life that combines freedom and control with duty and responsibility? What does it really mean to control our time? What’s the best career advice? I think Bloom is uncommonly good at a job that too many people try and very few people master: serving as a clearinghouse for truly excellent advice about being alive and being decent to other people. It’s a lesson we really need to hear these days. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Sahil Bloom Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 4 February 2025

In the past few years, we've learned that GLP-1 drugs don’t just help with diabetes or increase people’s feelings of fullness to help them lose weight. They have broad effects on substance abuse and behavior. They even seem to help with otherwise incurable illnesses, like Alzheimer's and schizophrenia. This month, a team of scientists studying 2 million patients in the Veterans Affairs medical system found that GLP-1s were associated with “a reduced risk of substance use and psychotic disorders, seizures, neurocognitive disorders (including Alzheimer’s disease and dementia), coagulation disorders (clotting), cardiometabolic disorders (like strokes and heart attacks), infectious illnesses and several respiratory conditions.” Today’s guest is a coauthor on the paper, Ziyad Al-Aly. He is a physician-scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. We talk about his new paper, the steps he took to make sure his findings were trustworthy, why GLP-1 drugs might work so well, what they’re teaching us about the brain and body, how they’re scrambling our sense of where volition begins and where free will ends, and what scientists should do next with the revelation that these drugs have effects that go far beyond obesity and diabetes. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ziyad Al-Aly Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: Al-Aly et al. on the effectiveness and risks of GLP-1 drugs [link] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 31 January 2025

Today, tech talk with an old friend of the pod, Kevin Roose of The New York Times, who is also host of the 'Hard Fork' podcast. This is a show about everything. And it’s going to remain a show about everything because I’m a little bit interested in everything. But one cost of that purposeful lack of narrow focus is that sometimes you fail to communicate the gravity of the important things that are happening in the world. And at the moment, I think some of the most important stories in the world are in tech—and more specifically, in the relationship between government and technology. A relationship that is closer now than it’s been in many decades. We begin with TikTok—the most popular source of news for Gen Z in America and the most downloaded mobile app in the world in 2024. Last year a bipartisan bill signed by Joe Biden demanded that the parent company of TikTok, which is the Chinese firm ByteDance, sell its American business or else face a ban. Well, today, TikTok is legally banned in America, and also in broad use, because Donald Trump—the man who called for banning the app in 2020—saved it in 2025 by essentially declaring that he won’t uphold the law. We then spend most of this episode talking about the crescendo of predictions from Silicon Valley that the AI frontier is nearing a breakthrough. In the past few weeks, members of OpenAI, Anthropic, and other frontier labs have claimed that they are less than three years away from building AI agents that are, to borrow their language, better than humans at everything. I ask Kevin how widespread these predictions are, whether we should believe them, what it would mean if they’re right, why they might wrong, what’s the biggest bottleneck still standing in their way, and why it’s so hard for the news media to report responsibly on a story like this, where we’re asked to take seriously the economy-shifting potential of a technology that we can’t actually report on because it doesn’t actually exist. And then, because I’m also completely bewildered by the bonfires of corruption that are erupting in crypto-land, we close on crypto. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kevin Roose Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 24 January 2025

This is the first episode of a little experiment we’re trying this year, a podcast within a podcast on history that we’re calling, simply enough, 'Plain History.' There are, I am well aware, a great number of history podcasts out there. But one thing I want to do with this show is to pay special attention to how the past worked. In this episode, for example, we're using the assassination of an American president to consider the practice of medicine in the 19th century. Our subject today is the bestseller 'Destiny of the Republic' by the historian Candice Millard, on the incredible life and absurd and tragic death of President James Garfield. In the summer of 1876, the United States celebrated its 100th birthday at the U.S. Centennial Exhibition in Philadelphia. Of the millions of people who walked through the grounds, one was Garfield, who attended the centennial with his wife and six children. In four years' time, he would be elected president at a shocking and chaotic Republican convention. But at the time, he was a 44-year-old congressman known in Washington for being a rags-to-riches genius. Garfield was a perfect match for the centennial grounds, which were themselves a gaudy showcase of genius. In Machinery Hall, visitors could pay for a machine to embroider their suspenders with their initials. They could gaze at one of the world’s first internal combustion engines, a technology that would in the next 50 years remake the world by powering a million cars, tractors, and tanks. They could see the first Remington typewriter and Edison telegraph system. In the Main Exhibition Building, a little-known teacher for the deaf caused a riot with his science experiment. In one room, the teacher held up a little metal piece to his mouth and read Hamlet’s soliloquy into a transmitter. In a separate room, the emperor of Brazil, sitting with an iron box receiver pressed against his ear, heard each word—to be or not to be—reverberating against his eardrum. The teacher’s name was Alexander Graham Bell, and the instrument in question had three months earlier received a patent as the world’s first working telephone. A few yards away, a scientist named Joseph Lister was having much less success trying to explain his theories of antisepsis to a crowd of skeptical American doctors. He claimed that the same tiny organisms that Pasteur said turned grape juice into wine also turned our wounds into infestations. Lister encouraged doctors to sterilize wounds and to treat their surgical instruments with carbolic acid. But American doctors laughed off these suggestions. Dr. Samuel Gross, the president of the Medical Congress and the most famous surgeon in America, said, “Little if any faith is placed by any enlightened or experienced surgeon on this side of the Atlantic in the so-called carbolic acid treatment of Professor Lister.” American surgeons instead believed in “open-air treatment,” which is exactly what it sounds like. Here are three characters of a story: James Garfield, Alexander Graham Bell, and Lister’s theory of antisepsis. They were united at the 1876 centennial. They would be reunited again in five years, under much more gruesome circumstances, brought together by a medical horror show that would end with a dead president. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Candice Millard Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 21 January 2025

Today's episode has been a long time coming. For years, more scientists and health influencers have claimed that even moderate drinking does serious damage to one's health. As someone who likes being healthy and also loves a glass of wine (or scotch), Derek really wanted to understand this issue more deeply. This week, he published a long article in The Atlantic about his research on the health effects of moderate drinking—meaning one or two drinks a night. In today's episode, he breaks down his research process and conclusions, sharing audio from his interview with Canadian health researcher Tim Stockwell, who is one of the most prominent skeptics of the supposed benefits of moderate drinking. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Tim Stockwell Producer: Devon Baroldi Links Derek's original article in The Atlantic (free gift link!): https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/01/moderate-drinking-warning-labels-cancer/681322/?gift=o6MjJQpusU9ebnFuymVdsD7vJ9S6Vd2LMCE-zROPKQs&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share "The Battle Over What to Tell Americans About Drinking" in the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/01/health/alcohol-dietary-guidelines.html "Alcohol and Cancer Risk 2025" The U.S. Surgeon General's Advisory https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/oash-alcohol-cancer-risk.pdf A meta-analysis in The Lancet on alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(18)31310-2/fulltext Vinay Prasad on alcohol and the meta-analysis https://www.drvinayprasad.com/p/what-is-the-truth-about-alcohol-consumption Emily Oster on alcohol and health https://parentdata.org/alcohol-and-health/ Tim Stockwell, et al, meta-analysis on alcohol, 2023 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2802963 "Associations between alcohol consumption and gray and white matter volumes in the UK Biobank" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28735-5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 17 January 2025

With so many confusing narratives unfolding around a fire that is still raging out of control, I wanted to talk to somebody I knew and trusted to get stories like this right. Robinson Meyer is the founder and editor of Heatmap News and a former staff writer at The Atlantic, where he covered climate news and related disasters. We talk about why this Los Angeles fire is so unusual, how it differs from most recent forest fires in California, the role of climate change, and what Los Angeles and other places can do to protect people from the inevitability of future disasters. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Robinson Meyer Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: Could More Controlled Burns Have Helped?  5 Startups Working on LA Fires  What Started The Fires?  Why LA’s Fires Are Exceptionally Hard to Fight  Does climate change make the Santa Ana winds worse? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 14 January 2025

My new feature for The Atlantic magazine is called "The Anti-Social Century." It's a long article that revolves around a simple point: Americans are now spending more time alone than ever. This surging solitude is changing our personalities, our politics, our culture, and our relationships. On this episode, University of Chicago psychologist Nick Epley joins the show to talk about why aloneness matters. We talk about his research on relationships and solitude, on why we need people in our lives, and why sometimes we disregard or misunderstand that need, and why "social fitness" is so critical to a good life. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nick Epley Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 10 January 2025

Happy new year! And what better way to celebrate the freshly torn calendar page than by welcoming one of Derek's favorite writers to the show to tell us what's in store for the 2025 economy. Michael Cembalest is the chairman of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset Management, and the author of the truly spectacular newsletter, 'Eye on the Market.' Today, we start with stocks and describe the truly historic—and historically unprecedented—dominance of the so-called Mag-7 tech giants. Then, we draw the connection between Big Tech’s historic run and the surge of AI spending. After a discussion on the history and future of nuclear power in America, we do a pit stop on the European economy, where we evaluate the continent’s tradeoff between safety and growth, and move on to China to disentangle that economy’s slowdown. Finally, we connect it all back to a Trump agenda that is a fascinating brew of old-fashioned Reaganite deregulation, newfangled crypto enthusiasm, mid-19th century tariff obsession, mid-20th century industrialization policy, and ... a bunch of other ingredients that I think I’ll just let Michael tell you about. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Michael Cembalest Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 7 January 2025

Our final episode of the year is also my favorite annual tradition: conversations with scientists about the most important and, often, just plain mind-blowing breakthroughs of the previous 12 months. Today we’re talking about "organ clocks" (we'll explain) and other key biotech advances of 2024 with Eric Topol, an American cardiologist and author who is also the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. But first, Derek attempts a 'Plain English'-y summary of the most confusing thing he's ever covered—QUANTUM COMPUTING—with a major assist from theoretical computer scientist Scott Aaronson from the University of Texas at Austin. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Scott Aaronson and Eric Topol Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 31 December 2024

Why do Americans die younger than citizens of other rich countries? The most important reason is that life in America is inexcusably dangerous. The U.S. has more fatalities from gun violence, drug overdoses, and auto accidents than just about any other similarly rich nation, and its obesity rate is about 50 percent higher than the European average. Put this all together, and the U.S. is rightly considered a “rich death trap” for its young and middle-aged citizens. That’s the bad news. Now here’s the good news. In the past 12 months, quietly and without much media fanfare, the government reported that drug deaths declined, murders declined, traffic fatalities declined, and the standard measure of obesity declined. This inside straight of good news has never happened before in the 21st century—and perhaps decades before that. Today’s guest is Charles Fain Lehman. He’s a fellow at the Manhattan Institute whose expertise is unpacking complex trends in the most gruesome areas, like drugs, murder, and death, in America. Today, he explains why the U.S. seems to be experiencing a sort of mysterious health wave and whether we should expect it to last. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Charles Fain Lehman Producer: Devon Baroldi Link: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/violence-obesity-overdoses-health-covid/681079/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 27 December 2024

So, here’s a scenario: It’s Monday. And you open up whatever calendar or planner or to-do list you use to organize the essential activities of the upcoming week. There’s a large project due Thursday. And an important meeting Wednesday. Your nine-to-five is chockablock with meetings, and your kid has a school function Tuesday, and there are holiday gifts to buy before Friday, and just when you’re pretty sure your week couldn’t possibly take one more featherweight of responsibilities, the HVAC unit sputters to a stop, requiring a call to the local heating and cooling guys, which obliterates four hours of Monday. You can tell yourself that this week is cursed. Or you can tell yourself the truth: Feeling an imbalance between the time you have and the time you want to have isn’t really a curse at all. It’s a bit more like ... the definition of being alive. To see life clearly in this way is what I’ve come to think of as Oliver Burkeman brain. Oliver is the author of the books 'Four Thousand Weeks' and 'Meditations for Mortals.' Today, in what's become a holiday tradition of sorts, we bring back Oliver to chat about doing more by doing less, the dubious benefits of scheduling, and the freedom that comes from accepting our limitations. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Oliver Burkeman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 20 December 2024

So, here’s a scenario: It’s Monday. And you open up whatever calendar or planner or to-do list you use to organize the essential activities of the upcoming week. There’s a large project due Thursday. And an important meeting Wednesday. Your nine-to-five is chockablock with meetings, and your kid has a school function Tuesday, and there are holiday gifts to buy before Friday, and just when you’re pretty sure your week couldn’t possibly take one more featherweight of responsibilities, the HVAC unit sputters to a stop, requiring a call to the local heating and cooling guys, which obliterates four hours of Monday. You can tell yourself that this week is cursed. Or you can tell yourself the truth: Feeling an imbalance between the time you have and the time you want to have isn’t really a curse at all. It’s a bit more like ... the definition of being alive. To see life clearly in this way is what I’ve come to think of as Oliver Burkeman brain. Oliver is the author of the books 'Four Thousand Weeks' and 'Meditations for Mortals.' Today, in what's become a holiday tradition of sorts, we bring back Oliver to chat about doing more by doing less, the dubious benefits of scheduling, and the freedom that comes from accepting our limitations. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Oliver Burkeman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 20 December 2024

Last week, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was shot to death outside a hotel in Manhattan by a young man motivated by rage at the insurance industry. His rage is clearly felt widely. In the aftermath of the killing, many people seemed to delight in the man’s assassination. Their reaction was a grotesque illustration of something real: There is an enormous amount of anger and frustration about the state of American health care. And there ought to be. The U.S. is the most expensive health care system in the world, while for many people it delivers bad care at exorbitant prices. But anger is not always a signal of accuracy. And while some of the most popular reasons to be furious at American health care are based on truth, many are based on misunderstandings and myths—especially about the insurance system. This week, I wanted to present a calm and informed conversation with a health care expert to walk me through what I consider the biggest health care questions of the moment. Why are American health care costs so high? How much are insurers to blame? How do other countries handle health care differently? What can we learn from them? And what, if anything, should make us optimistic about the future of American health care? Today we have two guests. First we have Jonathan Gruber, an economics professor at MIT and a key architect of several health care laws, including the 2006 Massachusetts health care reform and the Affordable Care Act. Jon walks me through the key drivers of health inflation and American anger at the health care system. The second, David Cutler, is an economics professor at Harvard who served as senior health care adviser for Barack Obama; he helps us think comparatively about the weaknesses and strengths of the U.S. health system and what reforms could help Americans live longer and healthier lives. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Jonathan Gruber and David Cutler Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 13 December 2024

Last week, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was shot to death outside a hotel in Manhattan by a young man motivated by rage at the insurance industry. His rage is clearly felt widely. In the aftermath of the killing, many people seemed to delight in the man’s assassination. Their reaction was a grotesque illustration of something real: There is an enormous amount of anger and frustration about the state of American health care. And there ought to be. The U.S. is the most expensive health care system in the world, while for many people it delivers bad care at exorbitant prices. But anger is not always a signal of accuracy. And while some of the most popular reasons to be furious at American health care are based on truth, many are based on misunderstandings and myths—especially about the insurance system. This week, I wanted to present a calm and informed conversation with a health care expert to walk me through what I consider the biggest health care questions of the moment. Why are American health care costs so high? How much are insurers to blame? How do other countries handle health care differently? What can we learn from them? And what, if anything, should make us optimistic about the future of American health care? Today we have two guests. First we have Jonathan Gruber, an economics professor at MIT and a key architect of several health care laws, including the 2006 Massachusetts health care reform and the Affordable Care Act. Jon walks me through the key drivers of health inflation and American anger at the health care system. The second, David Cutler, is an economics professor at Harvard who served as senior health care adviser for Barack Obama; he helps us think comparatively about the weaknesses and strengths of the U.S. health system and what reforms could help Americans live longer and healthier lives. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Jonathan Gruber and David Cutler Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 13 December 2024

The crypto industry seems poised for a new golden age. But what exactly does that mean? Who would benefit? And, oh by the way, what does this technology do other than serve as a set of assets to bet to the moon? I have lots of questions about the state of crypto right now. Last week, Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for the first time in history. Its price has skyrocketed since Donald Trump’s win, as a wave of investors bet that the next four years will mark a new renaissance. And this isn’t just a time for optimism. It’s also a time for recrimination. In the last few weeks, several major tech figures, including the venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, have condemned democrats for what they describe as an illegal war on crypto. Austin Campbell is finance vet, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, and the founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting. Today, we talk about the purported war on crypto, starting with the origins of "debanking" practices under Obama; we talk about why crypto now seems like a majority-republican technology in an industry that has historically been democratic; we talk about the biggest use cases of crypto around the world; and Austin tells me why he thinks many people in the industry still aren't thinking clearly about the future of finance. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Austin Campbell Producer: Mike Wargon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 6 December 2024

In the last decade, several major findings in social psychology have turned out to be hogwash—or, worse, even fraud. This has become widely known as psychology's "replication crisis." Perhaps you have heard of power poses—based on a study finding that subjects reported stronger “feelings of power” after they posed, say, with their hands on their hips for several minutes. But that finding did not replicate. Or perhaps you have heard of ego depletion—the more famous assertion that, when people make a bunch of decisions, it exhausts their ability to make future decisions. Again: did not replicate. “There’s a thought that’s haunted me for years,” social psychologist Adam Mastroianni has written. “We’re doing all this research in psychology, but are we learning anything? We run these studies and publish these papers, and then what? The stack of papers just gets taller? I’ve never come up with satisfying answers. But now I finally understand why.” Today’s episode features two interviews. First, I talk to Adam about his big-picture critique of his own field: how psychology too often fails as a science, and what it can do better. Second, we speak with journalist Dan Engber from The Atlantic, who has been reporting on a billowing scandal in psychology that has enveloped several business school stars—and raised important questions about the field. What is psychology for? What would progress in psychology mean? And how can this field—which might be the discipline I follow than any other in academia—become more of a science? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Adam Mastroianni and Daniel Engber Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: “Is psychology going to Cincinnati?” by Adam Mastroianni  https://www.experimental-history.com/p/is-psychology-going-to-cincinnati "I’m so sorry for psychology’s loss, whatever it is" by Adam Mastroianni  https://www.experimental-history.com/p/im-so-sorry-for-psychologys-loss#footnote-anchor-3-136506668 “The Business-School Scandal That Just Keeps Getting Bigger” by Daniel Engber  https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/01/business-school-fraud-research/680669/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 27 November 2024

Emily Oster, professor of economics at Brown University, joins the show to talk about Robert F. Kennedy Jr., his theories about fluoride and vaccines, and how the media and science community should treat the most controversial topics. This is a new age of science and information, where trust seems to be shifting from institutions like the FDA and CDC to individuals like RFK Jr. and Oster, and I consider her a model of public health communication. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Emily Oster Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 22 November 2024

What would a world of self-driven cars look like? How would it change shopping, transportation, and life, more broadly? A decade ago, many people were asking these questions, as it looked like a boom in autonomous vehicles was imminent. But in the last few years, other technologies—crypto, the metaverse, AI—have stolen the spotlight. Meanwhile, self-driving cars have quietly become a huge deal in the U.S. Waymo One, a commercial ride-hailing service that spun off from Google, has been rolled out in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin. Every week, Waymo makes 150,000 autonomous rides. Tesla is also competing to build a robo-taxi service and to develop self-driving capabilities. There are two reasons why I’ve always been fascinated by self-driving cars: The first is safety. There are roughly 40,000 vehicular deaths in America every year and 6 million accidents. It’s appropriate to be concerned about the safety of computer-driven vehicles. But what about the safety of human-driven vehicles? A technology with the potential to save thousands of lives and prevent millions of accidents is a huge deal. Second, the automobile was arguably the most important technology of the 20th century. The invention of the internal combustion engine transformed agriculture, personal transportation, and supply chains. It made the suburbs possible. It changed the spatial geometry of the city. It expanded demand for fossil fuels and created some of the most valuable companies in the world. The reinvention of last century’s most important technology is a massive, massive story. And the truth is, I’m not sure that today’s news media—a category in which I include myself—has done an adequate job representing just how game-changing self-driving technology at scale could be. Today’s guest is Timothy Lee, author of the Substack publication Understanding AI. Today I asked him to help me understand self-driving cars—their technology, their industry, their possibility, and their implications. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Timothy Lee Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 15 November 2024

Derek shares his big-picture theory for Trump's victory. Then, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson explains how Trump shifted practically the entire electorate to the right. Links: Derek's article that inspired his open: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/donald-trump-covid-election/680559/ The Washington Post voter shift map:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/11/05/compare-2020-2024-presidential-results/ The graveyard of the incumbents: https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893 Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kristen Soltis Anderson Producer: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 8 November 2024

Today’s guest (our final preelection guest) is David Wasserman, political analyst with the Cook Political Report, who also helps out with the NBC decision desk. There are dozens, maybe hundreds, of people whose job on election night is to help Americans understand when we can safely call specific districts and states for Congress, Senate, or the presidency. However, I truly don’t think I know anybody whose calls I trust more than David's. And the even deeper compliment is that David is perhaps the most trusted election night consigliere among all the other people I trust. So, when I wanted to put together a show on how to watch election night like a pro, I’m grateful that the pro of pros said yes. With a week to go, this election has attracted several theories about which trends will determine the outcome. We’ve done shows on the rightward shift among men, especially young men; the politics of working class decline; the possibility that we’ll see non-white voters move into the Trump column while college-educated white voters move into the Harris column. But these are all theories. It’s going to take a while to know if they’re actually true. When polls close at 7 p.m., you’re going to see some people dive into exit polls and incomplete county-by-county returns, claiming that they can see trends and predict the outcome. But as Wasserman tells us, this is not wise. Exit polls aren’t special. They’re just another poll. And their non-specialness is important to note in an age when so many people are voting early and therefore aren’t counted among surveys of election-day voters. Meanwhile, different states have different rules for when they can start counting early and mailed ballots. These rules dramatically and sometimes confusingly shift our understanding of election night. Pennsylvania cannot start counting mail-in or early votes until Election Day morning. This often leads to slower reporting of mail-in results, while Election Day votes are usually counted and reported first. Last election Republicans were more likely to vote on Election Day while Democrats were more likely to vote by mail. If the same thing happens in 2024, what we should expect to see is a red mirage followed by a blue wave—as right-leaning ballots are counted first and left-leaning ballots are counted second. This is not a conspiracy. It’s just state law. In the state of Georgia, it’s the opposite. Georgia and other Sunbelt states can begin processing and counting mail-in and early votes before Election Day, which means what you might see a blue mirage followed by a red wave. One conspiracy theory that’s already starting to attract attention is that any state that looks like it’s voting for Trump that sees a blue wave is a sign of voter fraud. But there’s nothing fraudulent about the state laws that determine the orders in which votes are counted. For this reason, Wasserman says, it’s tantalizing but misleading to draw strong conclusions about the election from incomplete county results. If you want to understand where the election is going, if you want to watch the returns, like a good faith pro, the better solution is to wait for full county results in key bellwether counties like Nash County, North Carolina. Understanding what those key, predictive, canary-in-a-coalmine counties are is the focus of this show. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: David Wasserman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 4 November 2024

Today, a close look at the history of a Pennsylvania town and how that history contains within it the story of the 2024 election. In September, Donald Trump claimed that the city of Charleroi, Pennsylvania, was being overrun by immigrants who brought violence, gangs, and economic destruction. Last month, The Atlantic's George Packer went to Charleroi to report on what's actually going on there, and how the issues most important to Charleroi—nativism, immigration, change, working-class decline, and corporate greed—are also the deciding issues of the 2024 election. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: George Packer Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 1 November 2024

My favorite sort of social phenomenon is something that seems normal to modern eyes that is actually incredibly unusual. We take it for granted that every presidential election is a nail-biter these days. But this era of close elections is deeply strange. We used to have blowouts all the time. In 1964, 1972, and 1984, LBJ, Nixon, and Reagan, respectively, won by more than 15 points. This never happens anymore. Since the hanging-ballot mess of 2000, we’ve had historically close contests again and again: in 2004, 2012, 2016, and 2020. This year seems almost certain to continue the trend. National polls have almost never been this tight in the closing days of a presidential contest. In an era of shifting coalitions and weak parties, why is every modern presidential election so close? Today’s guest is Matt Yglesias, the author of the ‘Slow Boring’ newsletter, and a return guest on this show. We talk about how the era of close elections has, importantly, coincided with an era of racial realignment. We propose several theories for why every election is a nail-biter in the 21st century. And we explain why “it’s the internet, stupid” doesn’t work to explain this particular trend. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Matthew Yglesias Producer: Devon Baroldi LINKS: https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-era-of-close-elections https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-electorate-is-becoming-less-racially Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 25 October 2024

In 1900, the average US life expectancy was 47 years old. That's the current age of Tom Brady, Ryan Reynolds, and Shakira. But extraordinary advances in medicine and public health have surged lifespans in the US and throughout the world. The average American currently lives to about 79 years old. How long can this progress continue? As we have gotten so much better at allowing people to live to old age, how much progress have we made at confronting this ultimate boss of longevity? Today’s guest is Professor S. Jay Olshansky, from the school of public health at the University of Illinois at Chicago. We talk about progress and stasis in the most important science project in human history: how to increase human life. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: S. Jay Olshansky Producer: Devon Baroldi LINKS: "Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century" [link] "If Humans Were Built to Last," an illustration of what people would look like if they were optimally designed to live to 100 [link] "Child and Infant Mortality," from Our World in Data [link] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 18 October 2024

Today: the state of men and what's really happening in the gender divide in politics. Many young men are falling behind economically and socially at the same time that men and women are coming apart politically. What's really happening here? Richard Reeves, president of the American Institute for Boys and Men, joins the show to talk about the state of men, young men, working class men, the gender divide in the electorate, why Democrats seem to have a guy problem, and why Republicans seem to have a message that is resonating, especially for young men who are falling behind. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Richard Reeves Producer: Devon Baroldi LINKS: - “America’s Young Men Are Falling Even Further Behind" - The Tenuous Attachments of Working Class Men Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 11 October 2024

Since October 7, 2023, many have feared that the conflict between Israel and Hamas would bloom into a wider war that would consume the Middle East. Today, we are dangerously close to that reality. In just the last month, Israel carried out several attacks against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which, like Hamas, is backed by Iran. Israel is widely believed to be behind the remote detonation of pagers and communications devices that were implanted with explosives, killing and injuring scores of Hezbollah members. Israel assassinated the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and systematically killed much of its other leadership. It has launched a ground invasion of Lebanon—its first in nearly 20 years. It has bombed the Iranian consulate in Syria. Iran retaliated this week by launching nearly 200 missiles at Israel. In the Middle East, no stranger to warfare, this may be the most treacherous moment for interstate conflict since the Arab-Israeli War of 1967. Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, is today's guest. We begin by visiting each theater of the Middle East conflict: Lebanon, Gaza, Iran. We talk about Israel’s strategy, Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, and Iran’s next steps. We talk about the odds that today’s conflict will tip over into a full-blown regional war—and what that war might look like. And we talk about the United States, what the Biden White House is trying to achieve through private and public channels, and what levers Biden has left to influence the Middle East in his final weeks in office. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Natan Sachs Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 4 October 2024

Derek shares his biggest frustrations about the 2024 election, like the lack of a policy debate and blind spots in news coverage and polling analysis. Then he welcomes Jamil Zaki to the show: a professor of psychology at Stanford University and the director of the Stanford Social Neuroscience Lab. Zaki is the author of ‘Hope for Cynics,’ a new book that explores tension at the heart of human affairs. On one hand, social cooperation is the basis of human civilization. And yet cynicism—a baseline aversion to social cooperation and assumption that most people are greedy, selfish, and dishonest—is also core to the human experience. We are constantly violating the secret of our own success by assuming the worst in others, and Professor Zaki explains why. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jamil Zaki Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 27 September 2024

Today, a mystery about what some people consider the most important position in sports: What the hell is going on with the NFL quarterback? We are two weeks into the 2024 football season. And as several commentators have pointed out, the quarterback position just doesn’t look right. Passing yards per game are lower than any other year in the 21st century. Passing touchdowns have fallen off a cliff. The average completed pass is shorter than any other year in the recorded history of the sport. Today’s guest is Robert Mays, the host of 'The Athletic Football Show.' We talk about the evolution of the quarterback position, why NFL passing is down, how NFL defense got so smart, and where this is all headed. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Robert Mays Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: Pro Football Reference NFL History Page https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/index.htm Mike Sando: QBs Are Younger Than Any Time in 60 Years: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4880988/2023/09/21/justin-fields-nfl-young-quarterbacks-trend/ Bill Barnwell on the evolution of the QB: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41217438/how-running-qbs-changed-nfl-dual-threat-history-value-scramble-stats-future Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 20 September 2024

We may be on the cusp of a revolution in medicine, thanks to tools like AlphaFold, the technology for Google DeepMind, which helps scientists predict and see the shapes of thousands of proteins. How does AlphaFold work, what difference is it actually making in science, and what kinds of mysteries could it unlock? Today’s guest is Pushmeet Kohli. He is the head of AI for science at DeepMind. We talk about proteins, why they matter, why they’re challenging, how AlphaFold could accelerate and expand the hunt for miracle drugs, and what tools like AlphaFold tell us about the mystery of the cosmos and our efforts to understand it. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Pushmeet Kohli Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 13 September 2024

Are conspiracy theories more popular than ever? Are Americans more conspiratorial than ever? Are conservatives more conspiratorial than liberals? Joseph Uscinski is a political scientist at the University of Miami and one of the nation's preeminent experts on the psychology of conspiratorial thinking and the history of conspiracy theories in America. He has some counterintuitive and surprising answers to these questions. Today, he and Derek discuss—and debate—the psychology and politics of modern conspiratorial thinking. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Joseph Uscinski Producer: Devon Baroldi Links Uscinski's research page: https://people.miami.edu/profile/60b5fb062f4f266afb6739ec21657c74 "The psychological and political correlates of conspiracy theory beliefs" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-25617-0 "Fake news on Twitter during the 2016 U.S. presidential election" https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30679368/ "Right and left, partisanship predicts (asymmetric) vulnerability to misinformation" https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/right-and-left-partisanship-predicts-asymmetric-vulnerability-to-misinformation/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 6 September 2024

Exercise is a conundrum. On the one hand, physical activity is clearly one of the best interventions for preventing physical disease and mental suffering. On the other hand, scientists don't really understand how it works inside the body or what exactly running, jumping, lifting, and squatting do to our tissues and organs. That's finally changing. Euan Ashley, a professor of genomics and cardiovascular medicine and the chair of the Stanford Department of Medicine, is a member of a new research consortium that studies rats and humans to understand the molecular changes induced by exercise. Today we talk about the earliest findings from this new consortium, how exercise might have disparate effects in men versus women, why nature’s most effective cardiovascular intervention also seems to be nature’s most effective mental health intervention, as well as whether it will one day be possible to identify the molecular basis of exercise precisely enough to develop exercise pills that give us the benefits of working out without the sweat. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Euan Ashley Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 30 August 2024

Derek offers a short but sweet review of the Democratic National Convention, the science of post-convention bounces, and the reality of the 2024 polling: It's still a toss-up. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 23 August 2024