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🗓️ 7 November 2024
⏱️ 23 minutes
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0:00.0 | The markets are reacting forcefully to Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. |
0:05.4 | U.S. stocks, bond yields, and the U.S. dollar are all rising sharply in Wednesday trading. |
0:10.9 | But will these moves have legs and what medium and longer term market implications could this election outcome have? |
0:18.4 | I'm Allison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges. |
0:29.5 | Today I'm sitting down with Christian Mueller-Glissman, head of asset allocation research in |
0:33.8 | Goldman-Sacks research, and Brian Garrett, who oversees equity execution on our cross-asset |
0:38.4 | sales desk in Goldman Sachs Global Banking and Markets. |
0:41.4 | Christian, Brian, welcome to the program. |
0:43.2 | Thank you very much. |
0:43.8 | Glad to be here. |
0:44.6 | Yes, and Brian, you've been up since the wee hours of the morning. |
0:47.7 | Christian, you are in London, so you had the benefit of the time change, but we've all been up |
0:51.4 | a lot overnight watching these markets, which, as I've just said, |
0:55.6 | are reacting quite strongly to Donald Trump's victory. We've seen these so-called Trump trades |
1:01.8 | that we've been talking about for a long time now, really taking off. So, Brian, talk us through |
1:07.6 | the flows that you are seeing today and how much further you think these trades can run |
1:12.8 | because they've already run quite a lot. I think coming into today, clients were underweight |
1:17.5 | risk on where they wanted to be, especially in the event of the Trump potential red sweep. |
1:23.1 | If we were to handicap it, clients were probably running at a five out of ten in terms of positioning. |
1:28.5 | We've seen clients engage on trades that worked following the 2016 election, which were long banks, |
1:35.9 | long technology, long energy stocks. And if you look at 2016 as a playbook, the market rallied |
1:42.8 | 2% the day after the election. And between mid-November and mid-December in 2016, we rallied another 3.5% which given where S&P is right now would put us right around 6,100. |
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