There was big news over the weekend.

And Selzer is getting out of election polling.

Who am I going to like hang out with when I go to West Des Moines now?

You don't know anyone else in West Des Moines?

I think I literally don't know anyone else in West Des Moines.

Well, you have an opportunity to make some new friends.

Well, actually, maybe I do have a friend.

I ate at America's largest Ruth Chris in West Des Moines.

And I made friends with the bartender.

That sounds right.

Hello and welcome to the 538 politics podcast.

I'm Gailen Drook, and we're beginning to get a clearer view of what a second Trump administration might look like.

Trump is announcing his cabinet picks, some more conventional than others.

The size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus. And this has all led to predictions about what will and won't happen

in a second Trump administration. We, of course, do not have a crystal ball. You all know this

very well by this point, but we do have data, and that data reveals a lot about the expectations

of consumers, TV news viewers, Wall Street traders, and yes, even the Scottish teens,

aka the online betting markets. So today we have two games that are going to help us assess

expectations. The first is buy, sell, hold. We will survey the betting market odds for what

will happen in Trump's second term, in particular,

whether he'll get his nominees confirmed.

Sneak preview right now, Polly Market says there's a 21% chance that Matt Gates gets confirmed

...